Oklahoma at Oklahoma St – College Football Predictions
The Game
It is BEDLAM ! It is BEDLAM !
This just might be the best game of the day on a day FILLED with great games. The Sooners and Cowboys are two of the four (!) teams tied atop the Big 12 standings with one conference loss. The loser of this game is out of the playoff picture and in DEEP WATER in terms of making the Big 12 Championship. The Sooners have won three straight after their unexpected loss to Iowa St and the Pokes have won four consecutive games following their loss to TCU. Let’s go !
The Details
Oklahoma St -2.5 Oklahoma (76.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
Sagarin Ratings – Oklahoma St -2
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma St 39.5 Oklahoma 37
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Oklahoma 39 Oklahoma St 38
The Match-Up
Oklahoma St offense vs Oklahoma defense
Fireworks, yo. The Pokes bring the #3 offense in college football into this game and are going to be a handful for the Sooners’ struggling defense. Mason Rudolph has close to 3,000 yards passing already (2,866) with a fantastic 22-5 TD to INT ratio. The WR unit is loaded with legit targets including future NFL’r James Washington (1,005, 22.3, 8 TDs) and the RB corps features a great 1-2 combo (J Hill, JD King) that has combined for almost 1,300 yards and 11 TDs on the ground. They are explosive and balanced. But everyone knows this. The question is – can Oklahoma get enough stops on defense to win this game ? Watching them play the last month or so you would have to guess “no” but the reality is that they have only given up more than 27 points three times this season. The run defense is ranked #44 in the FBS, but having said that, it is partially because teams can throw at will. They are #100 in the FBS in pass efficiency defense and have only picked off 4 passes all season (#8 Big 12). The Sooners are #3 in the Big 12 in sacks per game but the Pokes do a good job of keeping Randolph clean. Seems to us that the Cowboys should score at least 35 unless they barf all over themselves with turnovers and penalties.
Oklahoma offense vs Oklahoma St defense
Baker Mayfield continues to lead the FBS in being awesome. It would be a shame if he lost the Heisman to a scrub running back. 72% completions. 23-3 TD to INT ratio. 11 yards per attempt. 4 rushing TDs. The offense is ranked #1 in the FBS and it is so devastating because of the balance between run and pass AND the BEVY of weapons. They do not have an Adrian Peterson or a James Washington but what they do have is a lot to worry about for opposing defenses. Three RB with 400+ rushing yards. Five players with 290+ receiving yards. The good news for Oklahoma St is that the defense has been a really nice surprise this season. They are ranked #38 in the FBS and have been equally good vs the run and the pass. It’s just a great match-up. #1 offense vs #2 defense in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed. Oklahoma should get into the 30s without issue as well.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings but all of those were under the tutelage of Bob Stoops.
Summary
Wow. This should be fun. Just like the market we view this game as a tossup and find it hard to make a case at the current number (2.5). Frankly, we would take either team at +3.5 or more but it does not look like that is going to happen.
Conclusion
We are going to keep the wallet closed on this one BUT a game this big deserves GUN TO THE HEAD selections. We would go Sooners ML +115 (based on our opinion that the fair line is +100) on the side. Fundamentally it is hard to go against the Cowboys BUT I think you know what happens a LOT when they get SO CLOSE to achieving big things. The total ? Would suggest the first half under. Maybe some geeked up defense to start the game before the offenses start going bananas. Enjoy !