Virginia Tech at Miami – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go !
It’s a battle of two ACC Coastal BIG BOYS as Virginia Tech visits Miami on Saturday night. The Hokies are coming in with a record of 7-1 and off recent blowout wins over UNC and Duke (combined score 83-10). YOUR Miami Hurricanes are an UNDEFEATED JABBAWOCKEE sitting atop the division at 7-0 with bagged wins over Florida St, Georgia Tech and Syracuse. This will be their toughest test yet and they MUST play a whole lot better than they did last week at North Carolina.
The Details
Virginia Tech -2.5 Miami (50)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Virginia Tech -3
Sagarin Ratings – Virginia Tech -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Virginia Tech 26.25 Miami 23.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Virginia Tech 24 Miami 21
The Match-Up
Virginia Tech offense vs Miami defense
QB Josh Jackson has done a fine job so far this season leading the team to a 7-1 record. Jackson has a stellar 17-4 TD to INT ratio and good mobility. The running game is going to be the key to this game as the Hurricanes most definitely have a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run and the Hokies have a deep stable of RBs. What is interesting about Miami is that they give up a lot of yards rushing between the 20s but really clamp down inside the red zone as they have only allowed 3 (!) rushing TDs all season. Miami has the #1 pass efficiency defense in the ACC (8-11 TD to INT) and will be tough to navigate through the air. WR Cam Phillips is rock solid and will be the key to scoring points. Pound the running game and let Phillips do damage as extra bodies come up to stop the run. Miami is ranked just #72 in the FBS in 3rd down defense and we fear that the Hokies will win the time of possession by a wide margin. The equalizer ? The Hurricanes have been excellent at forcing turnovers, sacks and TFL. <grabs popcorn>
Miami offense vs Virginia Tech defense
17-4. That is ALSO the TD-INT ratio for Malik Rosier who has ALSO proven to be a solid signal caller. Rosier also brings mobility to the position and RB Travis Homer has done a decent job replacing Mark Walton. You cannot TRULY replace Mark Walton but Homer has been fine. The Virginia Tech run defense is #1 (!) in the ACC and have only allowed 2 (!!!) rushing TDs this season. Miami will have to stay committed to the run but we are not sure they will be able to have much success. They are going to have to make plays MATRICULATING in the passing game and they DO have one of the most underrated set of weapons in the conference. The WR group is solid (Berrios, Richards, emerging Jeff Thomas) and TE Christopher Herndon is a LOAD and very reliable. Miami will need to make several big plays throwing the ball to win this one. Virginia Tech has only allowed 8 TD passes all season. <grabs more popcorn>
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
If it comes down to a late FG the Canes have the edge with Michael Badgley (12/14) over a somewhat erratic Joey Slye (13/20 in 2017; 3/13 last two years from 40+)……The Hokies outrushed Miami 251-42 (!) in last season’s game.
Summary
This has the makings of a classic. Miami has shown the ability to make games too close for comfort BUT have also shown the ability to WIN. Yes, that still matters. The reality is that Virginia Tech shows up as a better team from a statistical standpoint and should be able to handle business IF they take care of the football and do not dig themselves a deep hole early in the game. The best case scenario is an early lead for Virginia Tech that expands as the game goes on. If the game is close in the 4th quarter we may break the $10,000 button on in-game wagering and take the Canes.
Conclusion
Lean to Virginia Tech -2.5 for small potatoes. (NOTE – if you like Virginia Tech do NOT worry about TRAPS and GODZILLA and the MAFIA and STEAM MOVES – just bet the freaking game for your normal sized wager and enjoy. Listening to TIN FOIL HAT CONSPIRACY GUY will not work in the long run.)
We were hoping (foolishly) that Miami would be 3+ point favorites but that chance disappeared at some point during the DEBACLE at North Carolina last week. We think Miami plays their “A” game just not sure it is going to be good enough.