Alabama at Mississippi St – College Football Predictions
The Game
ROLL TIDE.
Alabama escaped their game vs LSU with a 24-10 victory. That moved them to 9-0 and on a collision course with DESTINY November 25th when they face Auburn for all the SEC West marbles. That presumes, of course, that Auburn can SHOCK the WORLD and beat Georgia. But we digress. The Bulldogs have exceeded expectations in terms of their win total, although to be fair, they did get massacred by Georgia and Auburn. They have won four in a row over virtual turds. Can they keep it rolling vs ROLL TIDE ? Let’s dig in.
The Details
ROLL TIDE -13.5 Mississippi St (50.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -13
Sagarin Ratings – Alabama -14
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 32 Mississippi St 18.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Alabama 31 Mississippi St 17
The Match-Up
ROLL TIDE offense vs Mississippi St defense
Pound the running game and let the defense win the game. The recipe has worked pretty well this season and QB Jalen Hurts is a perfect fit for the offense. He has excellent mobility (616 rushing yards, 7 TD) and has only thrown 1 (!) INT in 175 attempts. The RB group is loaded with D Harris and B Scarbrough bringing relentless beatings to opposing front sevens. WR Calvin Ridley is excellent but ROLL TIDE only has one player with more than a dozen receptions. The Bulldogs have been sneaky good on defense this season ranking in the top four in the SEC in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense and yards per play defense. ROLL TIDE is going to have to be patient blasting away with the run game because nothing is going to come easy on Saturday.
Mississippi St offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
QB Nick Fitzgerald is a run/pass nightmare for opposing defenses BUT he has definitely struggled vs top notch defenses. Exhibit A – Georgia. Exhibit B – Auburn. The ROLL TIDE LB unit is lacking in depth due to injuries but still have the speed and talent to keep Fitzgerald under wraps. Also keep in mind that the Bulldogs are one of the only teams in the galaxy to not have a 300+ yard receiver. ROLL TIDE has a lot of speed and talent despite their injuries and are ranked #2 in the FBS (!) in total defense, #2 in rushing defense and #1 (!) in the FBS in pass efficiency defense. Mississippi St will have to be smart and limit the turnovers. Convert on 3rd down. Their defense is good enough to keep them in this game.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Both defenses are fantastic at limiting 10+ yard plays on defense. They are each in the top-5 in the FBS in terms of allowing 10+ yard plays (Miss St – #3; ROLL TIDE #5)…….ROLL TIDE won last year’s meeting 51-3.
Summary
This feels like a low-scoring game, and to be honest, a game that the Bulldogs can win if they do not wet their pants early and fall behind by 10+. The defenses are both excellent and we would be surprised to see a lot of points on Saturday night. Even fewer early on when the teams are feeling each other out (hello ?).
Conclusion
Official play: First half under 26 -110. (play down to 24.5) (sent 8:25 pm EST Nov 9)