Michigan St at Ohio St – College Football Predictions
The Game
This game is a little less sexy after the DEBACLE in Iowa City last week, but nonetheless, the winner of this game is a virtual LOCK to make it to the Big 10 Championship Game. Michigan St boasts wins over Michigan and Penn St and just need a win this Saturday to complete a very impressive TRIFECTA. It’s anyone’s guess how Ohio St rebounds from the beating last week and their confidence has to be pretty low. Let’s roll !
The Details
Ohio St -15.5 Michigan St (55)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -10
Sagarin Ratings – Ohio St -13
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 35.25 Michigan St 19.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Ohio St 28 Michigan St 21
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Michigan St defense
Whoa. The Buckeyes could not get much going last week without throwing up all over themselves. JT Barrett (our boy) threw 4 INTs and struggled MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game. The running game did not work much better. Or course it did not help that the defense was awful. They still have an explosive and balanced offense if they can stay away from the turnovers. The problem is that SPARTY is even better than Iowa vs the run and should be able to at least slow down the Buckeyes’ run game. Michigan St has not allowed 100 yards in a game since Oct 7 (Michigan – 102) but can be had in the air. Ohio St boasts 7 players with 200+ receiving yards and spread it around nicely when not turning it over. They are #103 in time of possession in the FBS and have to figure out a way to grind out some drives and stay on the field after 3rd down. We think they are explosive enough to score some points but worry about their consistency vs a really good defense.
Michigan St offense vs Ohio St defense
QB Brian Lewerke is really coming into his own. It’s not often that you see a Big 10 QB throw for 400+ yards in back to back weeks (one was 3-OT, but still) and he has only thrown 5 INT in 315 (!) attempts. The big challenge will be getting the run game going vs Ohio St. Iowa had surprising success running the ball vs Ohio St but we do not think that LJ Scott and company are going to be able to get much done. It seems to us that the Spartans are going to need another big day from their QB and underrated WR group. Based on what we have seen from Ohio St this season (#8 pass efficiency D in Big 10; #6 in sacks per game) it feels like Sparty is going to get some yards throwing the ball and score some points. Will it be enough ? Hard to say.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
The road team is on a 7-2 ATS run in the past 9 meetings…….The two PKs have combined for 19/25 on FG attempts this season.
Summary
Things seem to be lining up for a magical SPARTY season. Ohio St is a bit wobbly and appear to be vulnerable.
Conclusion
Official play: Michigan St +15.5 (sent out 11:40 am EST Nov 9) (play down to +14)