Week 11 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
NEW feature this week. We will try to address every game from now on at least in a “One-Liner” at the bottom of the page.
Let’s go !!
Handy index: Quick Takes
- Toledo at Ohio (Wednesday)
- Bowling Green at Buffalo (Tuesday)
- E Michigan at C Michigan (Wednesday)
- Louisiana at Ole Miss
- Troy at Coastal Carolina
- Purdue at Northwestern
- Michigan at Maryland
- Nebraska at Minnesota
- Iowa at Wisconsin
- Florida St at Clemson
- Washington at Stanford
- Duke at Army
- Oklahoma St at Iowa St
- Arkansas at LSU
- NC State at Boston College
- Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
Handy Index: One-Liners
- Kent St at Western Michigan (Wednesday)
- Ball St at Northern Illinois (Thursday)
- Georgia Southern at Appalachian St (Thursday)
- Georgia St at Texas St
- Indiana at Illinois
- Rutgers at Penn St
- Florida at S Carolina
- Kansas at Texas
- North Carolina at Pittsburgh (Thursday)
- BYU at UNLV
- Fresno St at Hawaii
- San Jose St at Nevada
- Tennessee at Missouri
- Oregon St at Arizona
- UTEP at North Texas
- UConn at UCF
- S Miss at Rice
- MTSU at Charlotte
- Texas Tech at Baylor
Toledo -4.5 Ohio (64)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -4
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 34.25 Ohio 29.75
Now THIS is some sweet MACtion ACTION Wednesday night as Toledo visits Ohio in what should be a preview of the MAC Championship game down the road. Of course, anything can happen in the MAC, but in our estimation these are the best teams in their respective divisions.
The Rockets continue to roll along with a record of 8-1 and have a HAMMER LOCK on the West. QB Logan Woodside continues to put up awesome stats (19-2 TD to INT) and the running game is excellent as well (3 RB with 460+ rushing yards). The defense has allowed just 15,10,21,17,17 in the past five games. Speaking of great QB play, Ohio signal caller Nathan Rourke has been phenomenal running the Bobcat attack, and should start to get more national recognition. Rourke has a sparkling 13-3 TD to INT ratio and 16 (!!!) rushing TDs in 2017 and has led the team to 48,48 and 45 points the past three weeks. However, Toledo is a big step up in class, yo. The Ohio run defense has been solid but the pass defense has been lit up by good passing attacks (18 TD passes allowed). That’s not good when facing Toledo.
Quick Take: The problem with this game is that Toledo is a virtual cinch to make the title game (motivation ?) and this match-up (in reality) means nothing to Ohio because they need to beat Akron next week regardless of this outcome. Then of course you have Toledo wondering about the possibility of a big time bowl game if they only have one loss (YOUR Miami Hurricanes). Argh. Confusion, yo. Game looks perfectly lined. Gun to the head pick is Toledo team total over.
Buffalo -10.5 Bowling Green (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -8
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 32.5 Bowling Green 22
The Bulls have played some really good football this season but have had injuries to deal with at QB and a lot of close losses. They can win out to achieve bowl eligibility (currently 3-6) and the task is not impossible with a game vs Ball St and a finale vs Ohio – who knows if that game will mean anything to the Bobcats ? First things first – deal with the Falcons. QB Tyree Jackson is coming off a 300+ yard passing game and the running game is solid. Bowling Green’s defense is PURE FILTH and are ranked 2nd last in the MAC in yards per play allowed. The bad news for Buffalo ? The Falcons are starting to figure things out and new QB Jarret Doege has given the team a spark. Buffalo has lost six straight games to Bowling Green.
Quick Take: Buffalo is the better team but this feels like a lot of points and the Bulls have proven that they LOVE to play close games. Strong lean to the Falcons +10.5.
E Michigan -1.5 C Michigan (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – E Michigan 24.25 C Michigan 22.75
Just three more.
We are always watching in the final month of the season for lower tier schools that can go on a run and gain bowl eligibility. E Michigan is another MACtion squad that has been playing much better football than their record indicates AND the spread most certainly reflects that fact. The problem, as your boy Bill Parcells used to say, “You are what your record says you are”. If they win their last three games they can get back to the promised land.
E Michigan ended their six game losing streak (many of those in painful fashion) last week by bludgeoning Ball St 56-14. The defense continues to play at a high level as does QB Brogan Roback. The problem ? The running game has struggled for most of the season and the lack of balance eventually catches up with them.
FIRE UP CHIPS just had a dramatic win over rival W Michigan with a 3 TD performance out of nowhere in the 4th quarter. Can they bring the DIRECTIONAL MICHIGAN TROPHY back home with a win over the Eagles ? They are almost assured of their 6th win for bowl eligibility next week (Kent St) so this one should have their full attention. Central Michigan has been playing good defense and are a bit more balanced on offense. QB SUGAR Shane Morris has thrown 11 INTs and could be the difference maker. And not in a good way.
Quick Take: Tough game to call. You get the feeling that E Michigan will play well enough to win but find a way to barf it up. We will call for a few more points than expected and take a small taste of the over 47 for small potatoes.
Ole Miss -20.5 Louisiana (66.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -18
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 43.5 Louisiana 23
Both teams are going to be featuring QBs that have recently captured the starting job. And both guys look to have promise. Ole Miss signal caller has looked good since taking over the job from Shea Patterson (injury) and is averaging over 10 (!) yards per attempt. The defense is still a disaster. Louisiana burned the redshirt of freshman Levi Lewis last week and while listed a 5 foot 11 and 175 pounds it appears that he will be a player to watch. Lightning quick and a better passer than you might think. Their defense has been blown up by good offenses this season although it has played better as of late vs some sketchy competition.
Quick Take: Slight lean to the over 66.5 for small potatoes.
Troy -17 Coastal Carolina (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -13
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 34.5 Coastal Carolina 17.5
The Trojans won another close one last week and that means they are still on a DATE with DESTINY for yuuuuge game with Arkansas St to end the season that could determine the Sun Belt champ. The Troy offense has been a bit disappointing but the defense has been excellent (#1 Sun Belt yards per play allowed by a large margin). Coastal Carolina had a 13-point lead in the 4th quarter at Arkansas (!) and almost sent your pal Bret Bielamielialmama off packing but cacked it up late. The Chanticleers have played some good games against tough opponents this season but have also had some clunkers which is to be expected. The big question is the status of starting QB Tyler Keane (questionable as we go to press).
Quick Take: Pass for now. Not sure about the depth behind QB Keane. It’s too many points in our view but that assumes a capable QB for the Chanticleers.
Northwestern -4 Purdue (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -7
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 25.5 Purdue 21.5
ONIONS.
The Wildcats became the first FBS team ever to win three OT games in consecutive weeks. What can they possibly have left in the tank now ? That is really the only reason to look at the dog because they are a better team laying a short number AND Purdue is now without their starting QB. We have seen enough of your pal E Sindelar to know that he is a definite downgrade from David Blough who is out for the year. Purdue does nothing to overwhelm you on offense or defense but they play with max effort and are very well coached. They also need to win two of their final three games to achieve bowl eligibility. The Cats got the run game going last week vs Corn feeding the ball to RB J Jackson 31 times (154 yards).
Quick Take: Strong lean to the Wildcats -4. We worry just a bit about their motivation (bowl eligible; cannot win division) and their legacy of losing when you least expect it. Still pondering for an official play. Small potatoes at a minimum is recommended.
Michigan -16.5 Maryland (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -13
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 31 Maryland 14.5
Michigan has rebounded nicely in the past couple of games after the loss to Penn St under new QB Brandon Peters. Those games were against creampuffs Rutgers and Minnesota but the competition is similar this week as they head to Maryland. The Terps lost to Rutgers last week essentially ending their bowl season hope given the schedule that lies ahead. The Terrapins have allowed 62,37,38,39,31 in their past five games, and while Michigan is not explosive, it seems that the Wolverines should get into the 30s. Maryland is gonna have trouble getting more than 14.
Quick Take: It feels like too many points but Maryland is going to have a lot of problems moving the ball. Full pass.
Minnesota -2.5 Nebraska (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -1
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 25 Nebraska 22.5
It’s bloodsport, yo. Both teams are on the edge with records of 4-5 desperately trying to achieve bowl eligibility. And each squad has tough schedules to end the campaign, so realistically, this is a must-win game for both teams. The Gophers will welcome the drop in class this week after facing Iowa and Michigan on the road. The defense has been decent but the QB play has been really sketchy. CORN is coming off a home OT loss to the LUCKBOX Northwestern Wildcats in which they were outgained by almost 150 yards. They started the season overrated but now may be a bit underrated by the market. QB Tanner Lee and the WR group are more than capable of scoring some points in this contest.
Quick Take: Run Forrest ! Run away from this game !
Wisconsin -12 Iowa (46)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -10
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 29 Iowa 17
The Badgers keep destroying all-comers and sit with a record of 9-0. The problem is that the “all-comers” have not exactly been a murderer’s row of elite squads. But facts are facts and Wisconsin is a virtual lock to make the Big 10 Championship. They have only allowed more than 17 points once all season (NW – 24) and have not even really had a close call. Enter the Iowa Hawkeyes fresh off an EPIC BEATDOWN of Ohio St. Can they get the motivation up to the right level this week ? They are out of the division race and are already locked into a mid-tier / upper-mid-tier bowl game. HC Ferentz will have to try and use the “ruin their season” card as motivation. As far as Xs and Os it seems that Iowa is starting to get better on offense behind QB Nathan Stanley although they are still inconsistent on the road.
Quick Take: Two years ago this was a 10-6 Iowa win in a SNOT BUBBLER CLASSIC. There will be more points scored this week but we still lean to the under 46 for small potatoes.
Clemson -16 Florida St (46)………..MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -17
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 31 Florida St 15
The scenario surrounding this game has turned out to be a bit different than planned but it still has the potential for a fun game. Keep in mind that Clemson was life and death to beat NC State at home last year and lost to the mighty Pitt Panthers. Florida St is still capable of jumping up and biting somehow although the match-up in this game looks pretty grim. Orange QB Eric Dungey had 278 rushing and 109 rushing yards last week vs the Noles and Clemson QB Kelly Bryant has to be licking his chops. And the Tigers’ defense has a LOT less to worry about in terms of defending the pass this week. Florida St gets RB J Patrick back earlier than expected on Saturday and that may provide a bit of a psychological boost. Clemson has allowed 27 and 31 points in two of their past three games.
Quick Take: Lean to the over 46 for small potatoes.
Washington -6 Stanford (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -7
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 25.5 Stanford 19.5
Big time PAC 12 action, baby.
The two titans in the PAC 12 North go head-to-head Friday night as Washington visits Stanford. The Huskies are in the driver’s seat with only one conference loss and have been playing great football all season other than in the DEBACLE vs Arizona St (13-7 loss). They have only allowed more than 16 points once (!) all season and that was in a blowout win over UCLA (23). The QB play at Stanford makes them really hard to trust. Not to mention that the greatest RB of all time (next to S Barkley who rarely gets 100 yards in a game) is always “questionable” making handicapping a challenge.
Quick Take: Lean to Washington -6.
Duke -3 Army (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – Duke -1
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 26 Army 23
Dedicated MEGALOCKS readers know that we love service academy football and are thrilled when the teams have success. Look at this ARMY JUGGERNAUT ! They don’t even need to attempt a forward pass and can still whip you into next week. They just finished beating Air Force 21-0 (!) and are sitting with a really nice record of 7-2. Duke has been struggling on offense the last 5 games (6,21,10,17,3) but HC Cutcliffe has a proven track record of doing well vs option teams and the Dukies have had an extra week to get ready. Last season’s game was a 13-6 SNOT BUBBLER with Duke coming out on top.
Quick Take: Strong lean to the under 49.
Oklahoma St -6.5 Iowa St (60.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 33.5 Iowa St 27
This game is a bit under-the-radar this week given the big Sooners/TCU match-up BUT both squads still have a shot to get into the Big 12 Championship game. The Pokes are off a disappointing gag job vs Oklahoma in which they gave up an astounding 785 (!) yards. Star WR James Washington is questionable as we go to press and that will not help if he is limited. Iowa St was outgained 524-350 by W Virginia last week but still managed to keep the game close. Their defense has allowed 0,13,7,20 in the past four weeks and keep in mind that Oklahoma St managed to score just 10 points on Texas so its not like they are destined to put up big numbers.
Iowa St has outscored Big 12 competition 151-88. Oklahoma St 246-205.
Quick Take: Lean to Iowa St +6.5. Would wait to see if you can get +7.
LSU -17 Arkansas (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -14
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 36 Arkansas 19
These teams will battle for “The Boot” on Saturday and you can almost always expect the unexpected when these two teams square off. LSU is off a tough game with ROLL TIDE in which they held their own (306-299 yard edge). The defense is getting better every week and the running game is always reliable. The Hogs are off one point wins over Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina (!) and have given up 48,41,52,37 and 38 in their past five games. The road team has won convincingly in the past two meetings.
Quick Take: It’s a lot of points but it feels like LSU or nothing -17. At MOST small potatoes.
NC State -3 Boston College (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – NC State
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 27.5 Boston College 24.5
Two rock solid ACC teams go head-to-head on Saturday as the Pack visit Boston College. NC State is coming off a tough match-up with Clemson (491-415 yard edge) but have to feel a bit in the dumper after having their ACC Championship hopes essentially flushed down the toilet. QB Ryan Finley did a fine job ripped the Clemson pass defense to shreds and have no doubt he can have success this week. Boston College is 5-4 and need one more win to become bowl eligible. They are fresh off a bye and more than talented enough to pull off the upset.
Quick Take: Boston College ML for small potatoes seems like a good play in a toss-up.
Virginia Tech -3 Georgia Tech (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – NC State -3
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 26.5 Georgia Tech 23.5
We have some SWEET under-the-radar ACC ACTION on Saturday as the Hokies visit Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech is off a yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge loss to YOUR Miami Hurricanes and motivation is a bit of a question mark. Keep in mind, however, that the Hokies had only allowed 20 (!) points combined in the three games before they got steamrolled by YOUR Miami Hurricanes. Georgia Tech is sitting at 4-4 and need two more wins to become bowl eligible. One game was cancelled (UCF) due to a hurricane and we think they will still slither in to the post-season with a 5-6 record. Their option attack is tough to deal with and it is worth noting that the last three meetings have not been a treat for Virginia Tech (GT win by 10; VT win by 2; GT win by 3).
Quick Take: The game looks lined perfectly. Gun to the head selection would be GT team total under.
ONE-LINERS
N Illinois -31 Ball St (52.5)
Ball St is beyond horrible; NIU just had their dreams crushed. Pass.
W Michigan -22 Kent St (46.5)
Kent is disgusting and using 3rd QB; W Michigan using back-up QB off choke vs C Michigan. Pass.
Appalachian St -17.5 Ga Southern (56)
Georgia Southern still without a win and Mountaineers off big loss (motivation ?) Need help to win SB. Pass.
Georgia St -6 Texas St (47)
Panthers one win from bowl eligibility; Not a potent offense; Texas St rotten but had 563 yards offense last week. Pass.
Indiana -9 Illinois (49)
Indiana has not won a Big 10 game yet and who is the QB ?; Illinois young and stinky. Pass.
Penn St -31 Rutgers (52.5)
Too many points to lay and Penn St motivation is a ? ; Rutgers QB play sketchy and Penn St HC would run up score on homeless kids. Pass.
S Carolina -7.5 Florida (45.5)
Gators’ games are on KIDDIE LOCK for the rest of the season. No idea what to expect from them. Pass.
Texas -34 Kansas (55)
Out of our comfort zone to lay 34 points BUT Kansas is pure filth. Pass.
Pitt -9 UNC (49)
Still not a fan of the Pitt QB situation and UNC still has 88% of the team either injured or suspended. Tough read. Pass.
UNLV -4 BYU (50)
Both teams are playing better football; UNLV laying 4 ? BYU is a train wreck ? Have to pass.
Fresno St -10 Hawaii (53.5)
Fresno been outscored 39-36 vs two crap teams L2W and travel to land of the fix; Hawaii is pure filth. Pass.
Nevada -18.5 San Jose St (67)
The Pack is improving but are they 20 points better than anyone ? Pass
Missouri -12.5 Tennessee (61.5)
Tigers a hard team to assess. Gators gave up. Will the Vols ? Feels like Mizz or nothing. Gotta pass.
Arizona -21.5 Oregon St (71.5)
Oregon St playing improved ball but Arizona offense is lights-out right now. Will they be motivated ? Pass.
North Texas 22.5 UTEP (54)
UTEP is having a hard time scoring but slow down pace to a crawl. North Texas D is sketchy. Pass.
UCF -40 UConn (64)
We think this spread is almost 10 points too high BUT the Knights can name their score. Pass.
S Miss -10 Rice (48.5)
We overestimated the quality of S Miss and the vibe around town is negative; Rice is playing a bit better but still suck. Pass.
MTSU -12.5 Charlotte (49.5)
Have had a horrible read on MTSU this season and QB issues have not helped; Charlotte is pretty bad. Pass.
Texas Tech -7.5 Baylor (70.5)
The Red Raiders are flaky and may have quit on their HC BUT they have more talent. Baylor off a win vs KU. Pass.