California at Stanford – College Football Predictions
The Game
The Big Game, yo.
We got our first live taste of this match-up in the 1970s, and even if it was just hanging out at the tailgate as mini-MEGALOCKS, we gather that the seeds of college football love were born. (tell me that is not pure poetry ?) (congrats Pulitzer Prize members)
Out of seemingly NOWHERE it appears as though Stanford has a legit shot at making the PAC 12 Championship game. They need a bit of help but the hope is REAL. Cal is sitting at 5-5, and to be honest, that feels like a really good mark in season one of the Justin Wilcox era. They just need to win one of their final two games to reach bowl eligibility. It’s GO TIME.
The Details
Stanford -15.5 California (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Stanford -14
Sagarin Ratings – Stanford -13.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Stanford 35.5 California 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Stanford 35 California 20
The Match-Up
Stanford offense vs California defense
Star RB Bryce Love is what makes everything go. Love has a remarkable 1600+ yards rushing at 9 yards a pop (!) despite missing some time with injury. His presence allows the passing game to work and not many peeps realize that the Stanford offense is #2 in the PAC 12 in yards per play offense. Recently anointed starting QB KJ Costello is coming off a good game vs Washington (211 yards passing) and has an underrated set of targets to throw to if they can establish the running game. The Cal defense is ranked #10 in the PAC 12 in run defense and that probably means trouble. The wild card in handicapping this game is the uncertainty around the B Love ankle injury. He gutted it out last week vs the Huskies (30-166) and we hope he can go the distance this Saturday. Cal has yielded 38+ in four of their past six games.
California offense vs Stanford defense
Cal has the potential to do some good things on offense with the emergence of RB Patrick Laird who ran for 214 (!) yards vs Oregon St last week and 130 yards vs Arizona. The Cal passing game has been good but QB Ross Bowers just needs to cut down on the INTs (11). The Stanford defense is not what it has been in the past and can definitely be exposed. They are mid-pack (or below) in most PAC 12 defensive categories.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
The road team has covered six of the last eight games……Cal has only covered one of the last eight road games.
Summary
This just might be a closer game than you would think. If Love is healthy and plays the entire game he could tear this defense apart, but even then, 16 points is a lot.
Conclusion
Opinion: Best play on the game – Over 55.5; Cal +15.5
Are we playing this game ? Yes; both for small potatoes