Virginia at Miami – College Football Predictions
The Game
YOUR Miami Hurricanes are shooting up the rankings in the college football world off big wins over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame (another 899 STAR TOUT SCUMBAG LATE PHONE RELEASE LOSER). They now sit at 9-0 and are locked into their first (!) ACC Championship game appearance. The Cavs have exceeded many people’s expectations and have a record of 6-4. They have been really inconsistent but that is to be expected during a program turnaround. Can they pull the upset ?
The Details
Miami -19 Virginia (50.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -18
Sagarin Ratings – Miami -25
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 34.75 Virginia 15.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Miami 36 Virginia 10
The Match-Up
Miami offense vs Virginia defense
It just might be time to start the Joe Flacco “is he elite ?” discussion with Malik Rosier as he now has a 20-7 TD to INT ratio at 8 yards per attempt. His mobility is underrated and his accuracy is getting better every week. His weapons at WR and TE are really good and RB Travis Homer has an legitimate shot to get to 1,000 yards on the season (!) which is pretty amazing. The offensive line is doing a good job and the only thing to nitpick is their comical inability to convert on 3rd downs (#125 FBS). The good news is that they dominate on the first two downs and get set up with all kinds of good field position due to turnovers. The balance is going to be very hard for an average Cavs defense to deal with on Saturday. They do not do anything special in terms of defending the run or the pass or getting a ton of pressure BUT they are well coached and have only allowed 53% completions whilst bagging 12 INT.
Virginia offense vs Miami defense
On paper this looks like a really tough match-up for Virginia. Not just the talent level, but the fact that the Miami pass defense is playing at another level right now, and that is how Virginia butters its bread. The Canes have an excellent 9-16 (!) TD to INT ratio and are ranked #2 in the ACC in pass efficiency defense. Virginia is not going to be able to do much of anything running the football and will need a big game from QB Kurt Benkert and his talented group of receivers (three 500+ yard players). They will at least have to sprinkle in some work for RB Jordan Ellis and stay away from the turnovers that are leading to big time problems for many Miami opponents.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Miami is on a 10-4 ATS run in their past 14 games and have covered every November game in the Richt era…….Virginia games are 21-9-1 to the under in the past 31 contests.
Summary
We were originally interested in Virginia but find it really hard to step in front of the Miami train right now. Virginia has been wildly inconsistent this season and have given us three stinkers in the past four weeks. And they have a big game with Virginia Tech on deck. The Canes just need to win this game by a point to stay in the playoff conversation and it may be hard to cover this number unless their opponent coughs up the ball repeatedly AGAIN.
Conclusion
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Miami TT under. You should be able to find a 35 on Saturday. They have only exceeded that number vs two FBS teams in 2017.
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No