Week 12 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read.
We try to address as many games as possible every week. Check the “One-Liner” section at the bottom of the page for soundbytes.
Let’s go !!
Handy index: Quick Takes
- Buffalo at Ball St (Thursday)
- Ohio at Akron (Tuesday)
- Toledo at Bowling Green (Wednesday
- E Michigan at Miami Ohio (Wednesday)
- W Michigan at N Illinois (Wednesday)
- ULM at Auburn
- Mississippi St at Arkansas
- UAB at Florida
- Minnesota at Northwestern
- Pitt at Virginia Tech
- UNLV at New Mexico
- Hawaii at Utah St
- Navy at Notre Dame
- Georgia Tech at Duke
- Utah at Washington
- Air Force at Boise St
Handy Index: One-Liners
- Central Michigan at Kent St (Tuesday)
- Tulsa at South Florida (Thursday)
- Boston College vs Connecticut
- LSU at Tennessee
- Nebraska at Penn St
- Oklahoma at Kansas
- San Jose St at Colorado St
- Iowa St at Baylor
- MTSU at W Kentucky
- Illinois at Ohio St
- Texas St at Arkansas St
- Kansas St at Oklahoma St
Buffalo -17.5 Ball St (56.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -18
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 37 Ball St 19.5
It’s alive ! It’s alive !
The Bulls beat the Falcons last week and moved their record to 4-6 keeping bowl season hopes alive. This week’s game should be a layup as Ball St is playing the worst football imaginable allowing 56,58,56 and 63 points in their last four contests while struggling at the QB position. Other than the fact that this is #MACtion there seems no reason to believe that the Bulls cannot win big. <grabs popcorn>.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Bulls -17.5
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Ohio (13) Akron (51.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio – 10
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 32.25 Akron 19.25
For all intents and purposes it’s the game to decide the division title !
We can officially call Ohio Bobcats’ QB Nathan Rourke a star. You have to REALLY like a QB that can post a 14-4 TD to INT ratio while managing to rush for 17 scores. WOW. The offense is really humming and the defense is playing well (#2 MAC rush defense). The Akron passing game is going to have be lights out and the defense will have to somehow slow down the Ohio attack. We are waiting to hear about the status of starting QB T Woodson. As we go to press it appears that the market it telling us he is a no-go.
NOTE: update 1:45 pm EST Tuesday: Line is dropping. That could mean Woodson is going to start. We are still avoiding the game. Just a heads up.
NOTE: update 6pm….Line has steamed back up; Woodson likely no-go
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Over 51.5
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Toledo -17 Bowling Green (66)……….MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -14
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo (41.5) Bowling Green (24.5)
Toledo, we have a problem.
The Rockets looked like a LOCK to appear in the MAC Championship game, but once again, they are making it difficult on themselves. They were blown out by Ohio last week and now need to win their last two games to be assured of a spot. QB Logan Woodside is still a legit MAC star (20-2 TD to INT ratio) but the defense has been suspect at times and now they get a rival (Battle of I-75) in Bowling Green playing with nothing to lose AND a new QB that has been playing well. Jarret Doege has thrown for over 450 yards and 5 TDs (no INT) in the past two weeks. They are going to have big problems stopping Toledo so they need to get off to a quick start.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Toledo team total over. (no higher than 42)
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Miami Ohio -3.5 E Michigan (49.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -4
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 26.5 E Michigan 23
Can they do it again ?
The Redhawks won six straight games to get to bowl season last year and need to keep winning now (4-6 record) to achieve bowl eligibility. Miami is glad to have the MAN back at QB (Gus Ragland) who provided all the magic in 2016 but he has been a bit off this season completing just 54.5% of his passes with a 15-6 TD to INT ratio. They are getting more decent balance on offense now and WR James Gardner is a legit #1 target. The defense is one of the best in the MAC and they should win this game if they do not barf all over themselves with penalties and turnovers. The issue for Miami is that E Michigan has been fighting hard all season and have lost a truly remarkable number of close games. Just to give you a SNIFF of the TRAGEDY – they have lost 3 OT conference games to Ohio, W Michigan and NIU (all bowl teams) and lost to Toledo by 5 (JUGGERNAUT) and Army by 1 (JUGGERNAUT). They also have a great defense and solid QB (B Roback) although he did toss an alarming 5 INTs last week.
The key to the handicap this week is this: Will E Michigan be motivated enough to ruin the Redhawks season or have they simply HAD enough ? Tough call.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Over 49.5
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Northern Illinois -9 W Michigan (52)……….MEGALOCKS line – N Illinois -8
Vegas Implied Score – N Illinois 30.5 W Michigan 21.5
Both teams are still technically in the MAC West race but need some help. First things first. The Broncos bounced back after their loss to FIRE UP CHIPS with a 48-20 victory over Kent St and that was a game in which they managed to score three defensive TDs. The Broncos are really struggling MATRICULATING in the passing game with new QB Reece Goddard as they have failed to reach 100 yards (!) passing in each of the past two games. The RB depth has also been decimated with injuries but #1 Jarvion Franklin is still playing great football. NIU has a really good defense (#1 yards per play MAC; #1 run defense) and are going to be very hard to move the ball upon especially if the Broncos cannot establish some kind of threat throwing the football. The NIU offense has been pretty good under QB M Childers but they have been less explosive than in years past. Feels like a game that NIU should win and we are not sure the Broncos are going to get much done of offense.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Lean – Under 52
Are we playing this game ? Small potatoes
Auburn -37 ULM (68)……….MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -30
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 52.5 ULM 15.5
Whoa, Nellie !
Auburn is fresh off a SPANKING of Georgia and have the full attention of the college football world. If not for CRAPPING THE BED vs LSU we may be talking about a potential playoff JUGGERNAUT. They are rolling on offense and the defense has risen to another level. The question is this – Will their obvious talent edge be good enough to cover an inflated point spread especially with ROLL TIDE on deck ? ULM can score (20+ in all but one game) but their defense is another kind of horrible. But facts are facts – they are fresh off a win over App St (and a bye) and have not lost by more than 11 all season. Our big worry is that a bunch of ULM guys are listed on the injury report as “undisclosed”.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? ULM team total over 15.5
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Mississippi St -12 Arkansas (59)……….MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 35.5 Arkansas 23.5.
That was a great football game last Saturday night and YOUR Mississippi St Bulldogs gave ROLL TIDE all they could handle. QB Nick Fitzgerald is still on the ALL MEGALOCKS squad with his great dual threat ability and the D continues to be underrated. Our primary concern with the Bulldogs is the big game with Ole Miss next week. THAT is going to be game you will see 100% effort. This game feels like a contest where we get a “UMass” type effort (win, maybe no cover ?). Arkansas is not playable in this spot with all the drama surrounding soon-to-be (?) departed HC Bret Bielema and an off the field fiasco (QB DUI). Not to mention they recently scrambled to beat Coastal Carolina by one point at home.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Arkansas TT under
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Florida -10.5 UAB (48)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida -10
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 29.25 UAB 18.75
Yikes. Our season opening ratings would have had this game Florida -35. How is that for fun but useless trivia ? We refuse to get into the Florida SUCKS camp simply because the team they are putting on the field right now is a SHELL of the team we expected to see due to a billion suspensions and injuries. And now they have an interim HC. Having said that – what does that mean for this week ? Well UAB has achieved official JUGGERNAUT status and has already bagged 7 wins and achieved bowl eligibility. What a GREAT story. Like, for real, like. How about beating Florida in the SWAMP to REALLY get the program juices flowing ? There may not be much of a difference on paper between these two teams right now. The Gators are at or near the bottom in almost all relevant statistical categories within the SEC and that means – don’t think UAB vs Florida – think UAB vs a run-of-the-mill college football team. Florida is a mess at QB and have a game with Florida St on deck. UAB ran for over 200 yards last week but did not even crack 50 yards passing.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Under 48
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Northwestern -7.5 Minnesota (43.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -7
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 25.5 Minnesota 18
They just keep on rolling, baby ! The Cats have won five straight games and handled Purdue last weekend even though they had gone to OT in their previous three contests. With a record of 7-3 and a date with Illinois on the horizon they are thinking DOUBLE DIGIT WINS (would need a bowl victory) and that seemed impossible after getting blown out by Duke in week 2. QB Clayton Thorson has been erratic (11 INT) and RB Justin Jackson has had trouble getting rolling in many games despite being one of the best backs in the Big 10. It feels like Northwestern is due for a bit of a letdown but the match-up is a tough one for the Gophers. The Cats have the #2 run defense in the Big 10 (!) and Minnesota has a LOT of trouble MATRICULATING in the passing game. The Gophers ran for over 400 yards vs Corn last week and QB D Croft had 180 yards rushing and 3 TDs. Things are going to be a lot tougher on Saturday.
Minnesota is 1-3 on the road and their only victory came back on September 9 at Oregon St.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Gophers team total under
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Virginia Tech -15.5 Pittsburgh (48.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -17
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 32 Pittsburgh 16.5
The Hokies bring their 7-3 record into a home game with Pitt and look to rebound after a pair of losses (Miami, Georgia Tech). It is important to note, however, that the past two games were on the road and now they return home to Blacksburg where they most recently defeated North Carolina and Duke by a combined score of 83-10. Pitt’s hopes of bowl eligibility are hanging by a thread as they need to beat the Hokies and Hurricanes to get to six wins. Pitt has scored 24+ in five of the last six games and QB Ben Dinucci has been decent. The harsh reality is that this is a yuuuuge step up in class. We can’t really justify it based on perceived value in the point spread but it feels like a potential blowout. The Hokies just need to be motivated. Hard to say.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Virginia Tech team total over.
Are we playing this game ? Yes. Small potatoes.
New Mexico -2 UNLV (56)……….MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 29 UNLV 27
It’s hard to fathom, but yes indeed, UNLV can become bowl eligible this season with wins over New Mexico and Nevada to end the campaign. Certainly not impossible. And they are playing decent football having put up 400+ yards in four of their last five games with the outlier being a WIN vs Fresno St (a 90000 MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG MAX UNIT SUPER BOMB LOSER). They are absolutely a better team than New Mexico who appear to be imploding on and off the field. Of course the trick with picking UNLV is realizing that they are one of the worst road teams of all time.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? UNLV ML
Are we playing this game ? No.
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? Hell, no.
Utah St -11 Hawaii (56)……….MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 33.5 Hawaii 22.5
It’s seems strange but YES INDEED Utah St can achieve bowl eligibility (currently 5-5) with a home win over a struggling Hawaii team on Saturday. Hawaii has logged a lot of miles (again) and it seems unfathomable that we see a good game out of them this week now that their season is toast. Then again, they do have some nice weapons in QB Dru Brown (61%; 16-8 TD to INT ratio) and one of the best RBs in college football that you have not heard about in Diocemy Saint Juste (1,349 yards, 5.6, 7 TD). The Utah St defense is #2 in the Mountain West in turnovers forced (24) but they can be had if Hawaii doesn’t barf all over themselves with fumbles and interceptions. Utah St has managed less than 300 yards of offense in four of their last six games, and as bad as Hawaii can be at times, it seems like a lot to ask for the Aggies to cover the number unless Hawaii lays a total egg. Then again, they have been known to do that. Hmm.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Hawaii team total over.
Are we playing this game ? No.
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No.
Notre Dame -17.5 Navy (58.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -14
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 38 Navy 20.5
GLUG GLUG GLUG………
It’s what makes college football handicapping so challenging. Smart folks were on the Hurricanes last week but we dealt out a 9000 STAR GOAT FECES HAMMER LOCK LOSER with Notre Dame.
It’s going to be hard to bounce back after playing such good football all year and getting your teeth kicked in BIG TIME. The good news ? They go from playing one of the quickest defenses around to one of the slowest. Navy always gets up for Notre Dame but they are struggling with QB issues and are playing rotten defense. Notre Dame has Stanford on deck. Navy is already bowl eligible.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Notre Dame TT over
Are we playing this game ? Small potatoes. Maybe even medium, yo.
Georgia Tech -6 Duke (47)……….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 26.5 Duke 20.5
Everybody is happy when Duke is losing. Just kidding. Not really.
After a 4-0 start the Dukies have reeled off 6 straight losses and are in GRAVE danger of missing bowl season for the 2nd straight campaign. They have only scored 6,21,10,17,3 and 16 in their past six contests. The good news ? They just finished playing Army and get the triple option for the 2nd straight week. The Jackets followed up a stinker vs Virginia with a nice win over the Hokies that did not come easy. They have a big date with Georgia next week.
It feels like UNDER CITY but the Jackets are more explosive than you might think.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? YEESH. A desperate Duke team +6.
Are we playing this game ? No.
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No.
Washington -17.5 Air Force (57.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Washington -14
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 37.5 Utah 20
Both teams have had disappointing seasons. The Huskies have a fine 8-2 record BUT are out of the playoff hunt AND need help to win the division. They have lost two of four contests after the easy schedule to start the season and we wonder if we overrated them just a bit. It will not help to be without star LB A Victor and they also have the Apple Cup on deck. Utah got off to a 4-0 start but have CRAPPED the BED losing five of their last six games. This is another team we had high hopes for but the offense has been inconsistent and the defense below par. It feels like too many points to lay but we will probably stay clear. Utah turned the ball over 7 (!) times last week, and while that will not happen again this week (century ?), it is often the sign of underlying problems.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Utah +17.5
Are we playing this game ? No.
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No.
Boise St -17 Air Force (57)……….MEGALOCKS line – Boise -16
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 37 Air Force 20
Stop us if you have heard this before. Air Force has no shot. AMIRITE ? Amaze your psycho ex-girlfriend with this gem – Air Force has won three straight meetings and all of them came as yuuuuge underdogs. Boise is looking good to make the conference title game whilst the Falcons need to win both of their final two contests to gain bowl eligibility. Boise is off a sparkling offensive performance (300+ yards rushing AND passing) in which they came back from a 28-3 deficit on the road at Colorado St. They offense is starting to click (500+ yards two of last three games) and the defense has been solid (before last week). They are familiar with the Air Force attack, and as per usual, should win the game unless there is a comedy of errors. Always tough to lay this many points when playing Air Force. Hmmmmm.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? As gross as it feels would have to take the 17 points and Air Force.
Are we playing this game ? No.
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No.
ONE-LINERS
C Michigan -17 Kent St (46.5)
FIRE CHIPS off a big win (letdown spot ?); Kent showed a bit of spunk early last week. Line looks correct. Pass.
South Florida -22 Tulsa (68)
The Bulls can probably name their score against a putrid defense but they do have a big game next week (UCF). Pass.
Boston College -21.5 UConn (49.5)
BC sadly without emerging star QB Anthony Brown; UConn can score a bit but play BAD D. Pass.
LSU -15.5 Tennessee (45.5)
Tigers huge edge in talent and should run for 350+ yards but are they motivated ? Impact of new HC on Vols effort ? Pass.
Penn St -26 Nebraska (56)
CORN is in rough shape and will QB go ? But they can score. Penn St HC happy to run up score b/c it’s just cool. Pass.
Oklahoma -37 Kansas (71)
Sooners going to get into the 50s…..Line is about a TD too high but just cannot trust Kansas. Pass.
Colorado St -32.5 San Jose St (66.5)
Rams can name their score but where will motivation be after blowing 28-3 lead to Boise ? Pass.
Iowa St -9.5 Baylor (54.5)
Not sure what is going on at QB for Iowa St and how do they react of last week’s loss ? Pass
MTSU -3 W Kentucky (59)
A pair of disappointing teams that are each capable of producing a high-variance outcome (read: who knows ?). Pass.
Ohio St -41 Illinois (54)
Ohio St can and will name their score. The problem is the spread which seems about a TD too high. Pass.
Arkansas St -26.5 Texas St (57.5)
Red Wolves games are on KIDDIE LOCK until bowl season. Pass.
Oklahoma St -19.5 Kansas St (65)
Hard to handicap Kansas St games with the revolving QB situation. Pass.