Alabama at Auburn – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go ! Iron Bowl 82. ROLL TIDE vs Auburn. SEC West title on the line. Playoff implications. Pure hatred. And GREAT football.
ROLL TIDE is undefeated this season, and while they may have had “trouble” in a few games, we almost get the feeling that they are a bit underrated. They have outscored SEC opponents by a score of 293-72. Auburn has a pair of losses but there is no shame in losing to Clemson on the road AND LSU has 8 wins. Buckle up. This should be fun.
The Details
ROLL TIDE -4.5 Auburn (47)
MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -6
Sagarin Ratings – ROLL TIDE -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 25.75 Auburn 21.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 24 Auburn 22
The Match-Up
ROLL TIDE offense vs Auburn defense
All he does is win games. QB Jalen Hurts was a millisecond away from leading ROLL TIDE to a National Championship last year and he has the team in a great spot once again in 2017. Hurts has a super 14-1 TD to INT ratio and 8 rushing TDs. He doesn’t make mistakes and has great chemistry with star WR Calvin Ridley (52-858). The running back group is deep and very talented as you would expect. They are going to face a tough challenge this week, however, going up against one of the best run defenses in the SEC (#3). We worry about the distribution in the passing game (only one player with more than 210 yards receiving) but love the depth at RB and the ability of Hurts to run the football. 3rd downs are going to be extra yuuuuuuuge and ROLL TIDE has not demonstrated the ability to just blow people off the ball every time there is a 3rd or 4th down and short. Auburn’s pass defense is #3 in the SEC in efficiency allowing just 54% completions and they are #3 in the conference in sacks per game. One way or another ROLL TIDE has scored 24+ in every game this season and we feel like the mid-20s is the most likely output on Saturday when you consider offense, defense and special teams scores.
Auburn offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
HELL-O. This is going to be a great match-up. The Tigers are really starting to cook on offense and QB Jarrett Stidham is finding his groove. He is completing 68% (!) of his passes whilst only throwing 4 INTs in 267 attempts. Amaze your softball buddies with this gem – Auburn features 8 players who have hauled in a reception of 40+ yards. ROLL TIDE has the #1 defense in the SEC but are a bit banged up AND are not impervious (what a word, yo) to giving up big plays in the passing game. There is no reason to think that RB K Johnson (1,172, 16 TD) cannot keep the ROLL TIDE defense on its toes and allow Stidham the time to hit a few deep shots down the field. We can also see Auburn getting into the 20s. There is just too much talent. The worry ? ROLL TIDE has only allowed 6 TD passes all season which seems impossible. Yet, it isn’t. Auburn will have to have some success with the running game to get guys running open.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
ROLL TIDE is 12-4 ATS in their past 16 road games.
Summary
We have spent a lot of time on this game and it just seems REALLY tough to like either side against the number too much. We would back ROLL TIDE at -3 and Auburn at +7. Maybe the total is the way to go if you want some sweet action ?
Conclusion
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Over 47
Are we playing this game ? Sure, small potatoes.