Ohio St at Michigan – College Football Predictions
The Game
One of the biggest rivalries in sports delivers another edition on Saturday afternoon as Ohio St visits the Big House to take on Michigan. Ohio St has already clinched a spot in the Big 10 Championship game but are still alive (?) for a playoff berth if they get some help. Michigan has had a disappointing campaign but would love to stick it to their rated rivals.
The Details
Ohio St -12 Michigan (50)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -13
Sagarin Ratings – Ohio St -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 31 Michigan 19
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Ohio St 31 Michigan 28
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Michigan defense
The #1 offense in the Big 10 goes up against the #2 defense. How will this play out ? Well, normally the edge goes to the defense, but the Buckeyes’ offense is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE right now putting up yards and points by the bushel-full. The tempo is lightning fast and that is what would worry us if we were backing Michigan. Can the defense stay strong into the 4th quarter? QB JT Barrett has had a couple of sub-par games but has still thrown 32 TD passes whilst rushing for another eight. Emerging star RB JK Dobbins has well over 1,000 yards and 11 different players have caught a TD pass. Michigan plays great defense and has only allowed 47% completions and 261 (!) yards per game. The Wolverines excel at getting PENETRATION (#1 Big 10 TFL per game) but they need to be careful defending this Ohio St offense due to all the misdirection and multitude of weapons. It feels like Ohio St will get into the 30s in this game as they are averaging 45 points per game and Michigan has faced only one decent offense all season (Penn St – 43 points).
Michigan offense vs Ohio St defense
Will he or won’t he start ? That is the question.
Michigan has looked a lot better on offense with Brandon Peters at QB but he is a question mark as we go to press (concussion protocol). John O’Korn will get the start in the absence of Peters and he has a fairly disgusting 1-5 (!) TD to INT ratio this season. Peters clocks in at 4-0 BUT keep in mind he started against Rutgers, Minnesota and Maryland. Start #4 was last week vs the Badgers and he had only completed 50% of his passes (0 TD) before leaving with injury. He is a major upgrade over O’Korn but the real issue is the lack of playmakers at RB and WR. The RBs take 45 seconds to get to top speed and their best options in the passing game appear to be unknown tight ends and freshman WR D Peoples-Jones. Ohio St is #3 in the Big 10 in yards per play allowed, and while they got lit up by the Sooners and a good Iowa QB, it seems to us like Michigan will have trouble getting much done on offense.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Ohio St has won 14 of the last 16 meetings…..The last time the underdog won in this series was back in 2004…..Wut ?
Summary
Michigan is in deep water. The offense is going to struggle and the defense will probably be on the field WAY too long. Not even CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY can feel too confident this week. Fun stat – Ohio St and Michigan have 5 common opponents. Ohio St outscored them on average by 36 points per game. Michigan ? 4.
If Peters gets the start the line may drop to the 10 range but we still feel the Buckeyes win this game by a comfortable margin.
Conclusion
Official play: Ohio St -12 (sent out 7:52 pm EST Nov 23) (play up to -13)