South Florida at UCF – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s a winner-take-all AAC East showdown as South Florida visits the JUGGERNAUT UCF Knights on Friday afternoon. The Bulls have an impressive 9-1 mark with the only loss coming to Houston on a late TD. Sure, they have looked a bit sketchy at times, but 9-1 is 9-1 is 9-1. The Knights have a sparkling 10-0 record and have not had too many (any ?) close calls this season. It’s a RED HOT Florida rivalry with lots at stake, yo. Let’s gooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
The Details
UCF -10 South Florida (62.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – UCF -11
Sagarin Ratings – UCF -12
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USF 36.25 South Florida 26.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: UCF 38 South Florida 28
The Match-Up
UCF offense vs South Florida defense
The Knights are pretty much unstoppable. They have the #5 offense in college football and can kill you with the run or the pass. How about QB McKenzie Milton ? Instead of focusing on scrub running backs as potential Heisman candidates how about this guy ? 26 TD passes and only 5 INT. 5 rushing touchdowns. Leading his team to an undefeated record. Of course the biggest game(s) are yet to come but he has been fantastic. The running game is dangerous especially when they RELEASE THE KILLINS (7.5 yards per carry, 8 rushing TDs), and overall, the Knights have an amazing 33 (!) rushing TDs on the season. When Milton chooses to MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game he has plenty of targets including WR Tre’Quan Smith (19.3 per grab, 11 TD) and TE Jordan Akins (16 yards per catch). The Bulls are going to have their hands full BUT they do boast the #1 defense in the AAC in terms of yards per play allowed and they are also #1 vs the run AND #1 in pass efficiency defense. Their schedule has been really soft BUT they are well coached on defense and definitely have a lot of talent. They have picked off 17 passes and also lead the AAC in sacks per game and TFL per game. If UCF thinks they can just roll their helmets out there and score 40+ they might be in for a bit of a surprise. <grabs popcorn>
South Florida offense vs UCF defense
The Bulls also have an excellent QB in senior Quinton Flowers who is a phenomenal dual-threat signal caller. Flowers has over 2,000 yards passing and is well on his way to another 1,000 yard season on the ground. In fact, the Bulls have three players with 700+ rushing yards (Flowers, Johnson, Tice). Seven players have caught a TD pass and they have a legit #1 WR in M Valdes-Scantling. The GULF COAST OFFENSE is going to have a tough time navigating a good UCF defense that ranks highly in the AAC in all important categories other than getting PENETRATION. In particular, the Knights are ranked #3 in the conference in run defense, and there is no doubt that the #1 priority is to keep Flowers from killing them on the ground. Make him stay in the pocket and limit the big plays.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Both teams are in the top 5 (!) in the FBS in turnover margin…..Who will create havoc and make the game changing plays this week ?……UCF is #6 in the FBS in punt return average and #11 in kickoff return average.
Summary
This should be a fantastic game. Our first reaction was to lay the points and watch the carnage unfold, BUT upon further review, it appears that South Florida has a puncher’s chance of pulling the upset. They have the advantage of being the disrespected underdog and have some excellent senior leadership. Not to mention talent. The Knights are REALLY good and we are not sure how much to trust the Bulls statistics given the easy schedule they have played. Argh. Tough call.
Conclusion
Opinion: Best play on the game ? South Florida first half (awaiting line); Over 62.5
Are we playing this game ? Sure, each play above for a small potato.