Washington St at Washington – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s Apple Cup time, yo !
We all knew this game would have some BIG TIME implications, but honestly, it is just a bit of a surprise that said implications are related to only the COUGARS. Washington is limited to a spoiler role in this game and are out of the hunt for the divisional crown. Washington St gets to the PAC 12 Championship game with a win over their bitter rival on Saturday. Can the Cougars stamp their ticket and get a rematch with USC ? Let’s dig in !
The Details
Washonton -10.5 Washington St (48)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Washington -8
Sagarin Ratings – Washington -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington 29.25 Washington St 18.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Washington 31 Washington St 19
The Match-Up
Washington offense vs Washington St defense
The Huskies will try and use a balanced offense to move the ball on a very good Cougars stop unit. QB Jake Browning has done a good job this season guiding the offense but they have been much less explosive than they were in 2016. Browning has a fine 18-5 TD to INT ratio but is going to fall well short of last season’s 43 TD pass tally. Myles Gaskin is a legit #1 RB (1,090, 15 TD) but they only have one player with more than 400 receiving yards (D Pettis – 706, 7 TD). The Cougars are ranked #2 in the PAC 12 in yards per play defense, #2 in rush defense and #1 (!) in pass efficiency defense (8-14 TD to INT ratio; 53% completions). It seems to us that the Huskies are going to have to work for everything they get especially considering that Washington St is #2 (!) in the FBS in 3rd down defense (25%).
Washington St offense vs Washington defense
QB Luke Falk is tougher than a $3 steak but has had his up and down moments this season. If the OL can do a decent job of protection (last PAC 12 in sacks allowed per game) Falk should have more than enough time to do some damage. Washington allows 63% completions and have only registered 6 INTs. The strategy on offense will be to get the ball out quickly and mix in some running plays. RB Jamal Morrow leads the team in rushing and averages over 6 yards per carry. 9 players (!) have 200+ yards receiving so Washington will have to keep things in front of them and make tackles IN SPACE as they say on ESPN. This should be a really interesting battle as Washington is #1 in the PAC 12 in yards per play allowed. Washington has done a fine job vs the Cougars the past two seasons but they have lost a lot of talent to the NFL since then AND will be without star LB Azeem Victor for this contest.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Washington has lost the last four Apple Cups by double digits including the past two contests by scores of 45-17 and 45-10.
Summary
These teams do not appear to be that far apart in talent level. You also have to think that Washington St has the motivational edge with the Huskies failing to reach any of their major goals for the season. It also cannot hurt the Cougars to be coming off a bye week whilst the Huskies are off back-to-back meat grinders vs Stanford and Utah.
Conclusion
Official play: Washington St +10.5 (sent out 7:52 pm EST Nov 23) (play down to +10)