Week 13 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read.
We try to address as many games as possible every week. Check the “One-Liner” section at the bottom of the page for soundbytes.
Let’s go !!
Handy index: Quick Takes
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday)
- Kent St at Akron (Tuesday)
- Ole Miss at Mississippi St (Thursday)
- Northern Illinois at Central Michigan (Friday)
- Western Michigan at Toledo (Friday)
- Western Kentucky at FIU (Friday)
- Texas St at Troy (Friday)
- Miami at Pitt (Friday)
- Navy at Houston (Friday)
- Iowa at Nebraska (Friday)
- Ohio at Buffalo (Friday)
- Virginia Tech at Virginia (Friday)
- Texas Tech at Texas (Friday)
- Florida St at Florida
- Wisconsin at Minnesota
Handy Index: One-Liners
- Miami Ohio at Ball St (Tuesday)
- Kansas at Oklahoma St
- Connecticut at Cincinnati
- Vanderbilt at Tennessee
- West Virginia at Oklahoma
- Baylor at TCU
- Michigan St at Rutgers
- Missouri at Arkansas
- New Mexico at San Diego St
- California at UCLA
E Michigan -13 Bowling Green (60)……….MEGALOCKS line – E Michigan -14
Vegas Implied Score – E Michigan 36.5 Bowling Green 23.5
It’s MACtion time Tuesday night as the Falcons finish off the season with a road trip to Ypsilanti to face Eastern Michigan. Bowling Green is playing out the string with a 2-9 record but do have a promising young QB in Jarret Doege. The issues ? The defense is awful (104 points allowed in the past two games) and the OL is banged up. Eastern Michigan has had heartbreak after heartbreak in 2017 and are bowl WORTHY but will not be bowl ELIGIBLE. Motivation ? Well this is their “bowl game” and they definitely have the MINERALS to lay on a beating. This is only their 5th home game of the year and you would think they want every single one to count. Amirite ? Then again, they call it MACtion for a reason, yo.
Hard to say in these weird end-of-year situations but it seems to us that the play is Eastern Michigan, Eastern Michigan team total ‘over’ or nothing.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Eastern Michigan -13
Are we playing this game ? Ya, small potatoes.
Akron -15 Kent St (46)……….MEGALOCKS line – Akron -17
Vegas Implied Score – Akron 30.5 Kent St 15.5
What could possibly go wrong ?
The Zips pulled off a yuuuuuge upset of Ohio last week under the guidance of back-up QB Kato Nelson and now know they are good to go with whomever is under center. All they have to do is beat Kent St and the are off to the MACtion Championship game. It’s the battle for the Wagon Wheel and a yuuuuge local rivalry BUT the Golden Flashes are hurting at QB (last week’s performance notwithstanding) and RB. The defense is scrappy but this does not seem like the spot for an upset. One thing to keep in mind is that Akron has only outscored conference opponents by a score of 172-165 and it’s not like they are incapable of choking. They would probably need (-3) or worse in turnover margin for that to happen, but as we noted above, they call this MACtion for a reason.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Oh, boy. Ummmm……under 46.
Are we playing this game ? No way.
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No.
Ole Miss -15.5 Mississippi St (62.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 39 Ole Miss 23.5
Fire up the Egg Bowl, yo.
Ole Miss is not heading to bowl season BUT here is a chance to finish the season with a bang. The Rebels deserve credit for not throwing in the towel especially after losing their excellent starting QB Shea Patterson to injury. Backup QB Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and is certainly helped out by an excellent WR corps led by 1,000 yard man AJ Brown (10 TD). The running game has been suspect and they face one of the best run defenses in the FBS (#9). Can the Rebels mount enough of an attack in the passing game to stay within the number ? If the Bulldogs do what they do and pound the running game against the 2nd worst run defense in the SEC (240 yards per game) it is going to put a lot of pressure on the Rebels’ QB. Mississippi St has only scored more than 40 points once since Sept 9 (Kentucky) and are going to have to probably hit that number to cover the spread. Feels like a big day for excellent Miss St QB Nick Fitzgerald who is nearing 1,000 yards on the ground as well as RB Aeris Williams who will almost certainly crack the 1,000 yard barrier in this game as well.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Mississippi St team total over.
Are we playing this game ? Sure. Small potatoes
Northern Illinois -3 Central Michigan (53.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -1
Vegas Implied Score – N Illinois 28.25 C Michigan 25.25
Two MACtion heavyweights go at it on Friday as Northern Illinois visits Central Michigan. The Huskies still have an outside shot at the MAC West if Toledo loses (good luck) and they get a win over FIRE UP CHIPS. It is a tough handicap for a number of reasons. Both teams have solid defenses (#1, #3 in MAC yards per play allowed; NIU, CM) and pass efficiency defenses (#1, #2; CM, NIU) but both offenses are starting to hum. The Huskies have scored 48,30,63,35 in four of their last 5 games whilst the Chips have put up 56,35,42 and 42 in their past four contests. NIU has the motivation edge but FIRE UP CHIPS have won four straight and have won the past three meetings. Game feels perfectly lined.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? FIRE UP CHIPS +3.
Are we playing this game ? No.
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No.
Toledo -13.5 W Michigan (62.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -11
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 38 W Michigan 24.5
What could possibly go wrong ?
All Toledo needs to is beat Western Michigan at home and they move on to the MAC Championship. The Broncos are down to their back-up QB BUT have a really good rushing attack and have tallied 28,48 and 31 points in their past three contests. Their motivation is a question mark (already bowl eligible) but they would like nothing better than to ruin the Rockets’ season. Toledo has been known to CRAP THE BED when the chips are down but they still have the most talented team in the MAC and best QB.
The line feels a bit high to us even though Toledo CLEARLY has the better team and higher motivation level. That makes the handicap very tricky, yo.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? W Michigan team total under
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Western Kentucky -2.5 Florida International (54.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -11
Vegas Implied Score – W Kentucky 28.5 FIU 26
Motivation is going to be hard to assess this week. Western Kentucky is bowl eligible and coming off a dramatic 3-OT home win over MTSU. QB Mike White has thrown for 300+ yards in six games and is starting to heat up. They are one-dimensional on offense so White will have to have another big game and things look pretty good. FIU has allowed 65% completions and only picked off 6 passes. The Panthers are coming off a loss to rival FAU in a 9000 STAR MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG loser. Star WR Thomas Owens was announced as suspended before kickoff last week and is out again this week. That puts a damper on the passing game and RB Alex Gardner is going to need to have a big game on the ground. WKU has allowed 23 rushing TDs this season.
It feels like this will be a LOOOOSEY GOOOOSEY game but the problem is the lack of explosiveness on the Panthers side. Tough call.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? WKU team total over.
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Troy -24.5 Texas St (49.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Troy -20
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 37 Texas St 12.5
Troy is still right in the mix for a conference title (or share thereof) and get an exhibition tilt with Texas St before the yuuuuuuge game with Arkansas St next week. Troy has been really good for most of the season other than the odd stinker (read: S Alabama) and have the #1 defense in the FUN BELT by a wide margin. Texas St is better than you might think BUT their depth has been hurt by recent suspensions and they had trouble moving the ball against another good defense (Arkansas St) last week. We are not sure the motivation will be quite there for Troy and Texas St can score some points if you relax.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Texas St +24.5
Are we playing this game ? Ya, small potatoes. <crosses fingers and toes>
Miami -13.5 Pitt (51.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Miami -11
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 32.5 Pitt 19
YOUR undefeated Miami Hurricanes have one more battle before the DATE WITH DESTINY with Clemson in the ACC Championship game. They were outgained by Virginia last week but once again rode the emotion of a bunch of turnovers to put the game away in the second half. We worry a bit about the motivation angle in this one but feel confident that Miami is the much better team on both sides of the ball. Does that mean they will win by 2 TDs ? Hard to say. QB Kenny Pickett looked good off the bench and the Panthers have had a decent running game at times this season. Pitt is not going bowling so you have to guess whether or not it is a MAIL IT IN game or a SPOILER game ? They can essentially destroy Miami’s hopes at making the college football playoff.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Pitt +13.5. Try and get +14.
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Houston -4.5 Navy (55.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Houston -4
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 30 Navy 25.5
It’s a battle for 2nd place in the AAC West as Navy visits Houston on Friday afternoon. Navy is off a tough battle with Notre Dame in which they were in it from start to finish. They did a really nice job on defense even after accounting for the bad weather. The Notre Dame rushing attack was held under wraps and QB B Wimbush did not go nuts. Much like the Middies, Houston has had a revolving door at QB, and D’Eriq King will get another shot this week. King has nice mobility and proven ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game (5-1 TD to INT ratio). Last week he rattled off 141 rushing yards to go along with 225 through the air.
So many intangibles. Army game on deck for Navy – edge Houston. HC edge – haaaaaa. Huge edge Navy. Sloppy and dumb play – edge Navy. Revenge for last season’s game (?) – edge Houston. Navy has 20+ players from Texas…..ok we are reaching, yo. What we do know is that max effort comes every week from Navy and they lead the FBS in time of possession (36 min ! per game) whilst having three QBs ready to go all with slightly different skill sets.
Our gut tells us Houston BUT we know how unreliable they have been in conference games (3-10 L13 ATS). They are also really banged up at RB.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Under 55.5
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Iowa -3.5 Nebraska (52)……….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -6
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 27.75 Nebraska 24.25
YOUR Nebraska Cornhuskers on hot on the trail for HC Scott Frost but have one more game under the regime of your pal Mike Riley. At least that is the word on the street. The CORN defense has given up 110 yards in the past two games, and while the Iowa offense is pretty average away from home, you have to figure stops are going to be hard to come by on Friday afternoon. Iowa is off a bad home loss to Purdue and appear to be playing out the string (bowl eligible). The motivation favors CORN (send out HC with a win) but the “talent” edge is with Iowa. Two underrated QBs. One crappy defense.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Over 52
Are we playing this game ? Yup. Small potatoes.
Ohio -4.5 Buffalo (61)……….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -3
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 32.75 Buffalo 28.25
It’s another year and no MAC Championship. Ohio controlled their own destiny to win the East but lost to the wacky Akron Zips and their back-up QB. Can they get motivated for this one ? The good news is that they have one of the best players in the MAC in QB Nathan Rourke (14 passing TDs, 19 rushing) who is going to be a handful for the Bulls. The Ohio run defense has been excellent this season (#2 MAC) but the pass defense has been really shaky. Buffalo QB Tyree Jackson has thrown for over 1,000 yards in his past three games since returning from injury and the OL is excellent at pass protection. That should mean plenty of time to get the ball to star WR Anthony Johnson (1,201, 12 TD) and friends. The running game is also good enough to keep the Bulls balanced. It will come down to the Bulls run defense. They are #10 in the MAC when it comes to stopping the run, and the Bobcats can rip off a lot of rushing yards, even if RB D Brown does not go. 11th year senior AJ Ouellette is a legit #1 RB and the mobility of Rourke is a really tough for any defense to handle.
The Bulls have a strong motivational edge and Ohio does not have the talent advantage that you might think based on win/loss records. FWIW – the home team has won 7 straight in the series.
Quick Take:
OFFICIAL PLAY – Buffalo +4.5 -110. (play down to +4) (sent 9:40 am EST Nov 23)
Virginia Tech -7 Virginia (49.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -7
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 28.25 Virginia 21.25
It’s a game for bragging rights and the Commonwealth Cup as the Hokies visit Charlottesville to take on the Cavs. Virginia Tech escaped by the skin of their teeth last week at home vs Pitt whilst Virginia outgained Miami and had a 14 point lead but still lost by double digits. The line feels right and Virginia is a tough team to fade getting a TD whilst having the look of an improving squad. The Hokies have the better defense but seem to have hit the wall since the end of October.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Virginia +7
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Texas -10 Texas Tech (55)……….MEGALOCKS line – Texas -11
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 32.5 Texas Tech 22.5
Stop us if you have heard this before BUT it appears that Texas Tech may be crapping the bed down the stretch. They sit with a record of 5-6 and need a win vs Texas to become bowl eligible despite having a supermodel for a head coach. Who knew that would not be enough to compete in the Big 12 ? The defense has been a bit better this season (100+ yard per game improvement) but the offense has struggled more than it should. The motivation for the Longhorns is a bit of a question mark but you can usually count on good defense and Texas did a fine job vs the Sooners and the Cowboys.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Under 55
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Florida St -5.5 Florida (43.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 24.5 Florida 19
The Gators have had a disaster of a season but can win their “bowl game” by beating Florida St and officially knocking them out of bowl contention. Both teams have sketchy QBs AND sketchy run defenses so we expect an ugly close game. It’s hard to have more insight than that given the number of players lost on BOTH teams due to injuries and suspensions over the course of the season.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Gators +5.5
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Wisconsin -18 Minnesota (43)……….MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -14
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 30.5 Minnesota 12.5
The Badgers keep rolling along and winning games with the time-tested recipe of great running game added to great defense. The pressure is mounting, and while they are already a lock for the Big 10 Championship game vs Ohio St, they are still in the playoff conversation. They are in another league from a talent perspective but this is a rivalry game (Paul Bunyan’s Axe, yo) and Minnesota will absolutely bring their “A” game if they have one. Minnesota has a fine running attack when you include the mobility at QB but we are not sure what they will be able to accomplish vs the Badger front 7. And their passing game is worse than Michigan’s.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Minnesota first half +10.
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
ONE-LINERS
Miami Ohio -18 Ball St (58)
Miami Ohio’s season is over and a yuuuuge disappointment whilst Ball St is pure filth. Pass.
Oklahoma St -41 Kansas (70)
The line is about a TD too high (at least) according to our supercomputers but Kansas is pure filth. Pass.
Cincinnati 5.5 Connecticut (58.5)
Both teams are dung. UConn is playing better but have less talent ? Pass.
Tennessee 1 Vanderbilt (45.5)
Literally a coin flip game AND the line happens to be essentially a pick em. Pass.
Oklahoma -22.5 W Virginia (68.5)
Really hard to know how Mountaineers offense will perform with back-up QB and Sooners are locked into Big 12 title game. Pass.
TCU -24.5 Baylor (51)
Spread looks a bit high but TCU needs the win and we have lost track of Baylor’s injuries. QB Hill should go. Pass.
Michigan St -13.5 Rutgers (40)
Sparty should roll but will the motivation be there ? Pass.
Missouri -9 Arkansas (70)
Missouri is on fire but this feels like too many points. Argh. Pass.
San Diego St -20 New Mexico (48)
Feels like too many points but the Lobos are a dumpster fire right now. Pass.
UCLA -7 California (64)
Too many question marks. New HC for Bruins. Both teams need the game for bowl eligibility. And both defenses are suspect. Pass.