Miami vs Clemson – College Football Predictions
The Game
Clemson shows up in the ACC Championship game for the third straight season and will attempt to dispose of Miami the same way that they handled Virginia Tech and North Carolina the past two seasons. The Tigers come into the game at 11-1 and are fresh off a beatdown of an underrated South Carolina squad. Meanwhile Miami enters this contest off a disappointing road loss at Pitt that ruined the dream of an undefeated season. Realistically, however, their #1 goal before the season was to win the ACC and that is still a possibility.
The Details
Clemson -9.5 Miami (46.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Clemson -10
Sagarin Ratings – Clemson -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Clemson 28 Miami 18.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Clemson 30 Miami 20
The Match-Up
Clemson offense vs Miami defense
This is going to be a tough assignment for the Hurricanes’ defense. Clemson is very balanced and can rip you apart with the run or the pass. Now they are not as deadly MATRICULATING in the passing game like the 2016 team, BUT QB K Bryant has been pretty solid all season, other than when he was dealing with an injury. Bryant has thrown 12 TD passes and ran for another 10 scores while orchestrating the offense very well. They have a couple of solid RBs (T Etienne, T Feaster) and that makes their rushing attack pretty deadly when you add in the mobility of Bryant at QB. They have a deep stable of weapons at WR including veterans D Cain and H Renfrow. T Higgins has 262 yards receiving and a pair of TDs in his last two games (Citadel, S Carolina).
Miami has a fast and disruptive defense but they will be significantly challenged in this game due to the variety of weapons that Clemson has to offer. If Bryant distributes the ball effectively and they stay away from turnovers they will definitely be in great shape. Miami is #1 (!) in the FBS in turnover margin as we all know by know AND and they are #3 (!) in turnovers forced. The Hurricanes forced 2+ turnovers in all but two contests and forced an eye-popping 21 in their final six games. Clemson is not a turnover machine so it will be interesting to see if they stay that way playing against one of the most opportunistic defenses in college football. Miami was abused by a freshman run/pass sensation at Pitt (K Pickett – 193 pass, 60 rushing, 3 total TDs) and you have to think that K Bryant and the Tigers’ offense is an upgrade.
Miami offense vs Clemson defense
QB M Rosier deserves a lot of credit for the way he played in their biggest games during the regular season. Of course, the tricky thing is that the majority of their tough games were at home, other than the pull-it-out-of-the-fire win over Florida St. We worry a lot about the ability of Miami to run the football against Clemson who has the #14 run defense in the FBS. Miami managed just 45 yards on the ground vs Pitt and 59 (!) vs UNC in their last two road contests. Given time, Rosier will be able to make some plays down the field, as Clemson has shown themselves to be human at times when facing decent passing teams. Miami will be without match-up nightmare TE C Herndon but do have a talented and clutch WR in B Berrios along with a number of underrated receivers that could pop up and have a big game. A Richards has been a disappointment (dealing with injuries) but he is more than capable of stepping up on the big stage (News – A Richards now OUT). The key will be pass protection. If Rosier has time – this game will be interesting. Clemson has only recorded more than a single sack in one of their past 4 games. Miami has been decent at keeping Rosier clean in 2017 but they did give up 4 sacks last Saturday. Having said that, without the threat of a running game, it will be really tough for Rosier to do enough damage.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
This is Miami’s first trip to the ACC Championship game…..This is Clemson’s third year in a row in the big game.
Summary
It’s a lot of points. But at the same time, it also feels like Miami is going to have a hard time getting things going against one of the most talented and well coached defenses in all of college football. The running game has had a hard time working outside of Miami and they cannot afford to be one dimensional. Clemson has had a bit of a difficult time putting teams away this season, but then again, we are probably just getting spoiled.
Clemson has a lot more weapons and a more imposing defense. And big game pedigree. Miami has shown the ability to rise to the occasion but will need (+2) or better in turnover margin to stay in this game.
The deciding factors for us ? 1) Miami only played four games away from home; beat Duke (were outrushed 183-139), beat Florida St (only ran for 83 yards), beat UNC (59 yards rushing) and lost to Pitt (45 yards rushing). Given that they will not be able to run the ball this week AND they are #121 in 3rd down conversions, it seems apparent that Clemson is going to have a lot of time with the ball and eventually wear down the Hurricanes’ defense. 2) QB M Rosier has a 145.7 QB rating (61.5%) at home; 127.9 (45.8%) on the road. His QBR has also dropped steadily in September, October and November (167,133,124).
Conclusion
Official Play: Clemson -9.5 -110 (sent 10:00 am EST Nov 30) (play up to -10)