TCU vs Oklahoma – College Football Predictions
The Game
The Sooners just need to win one more game to get to the College Football Playoff. What could possibly go wrong ? Well, standing in their way are the scrappy TCU Horned Frogs, and they are more than capable of pulling off a yuuuuge upset. The Sooners won their meeting on Nov 11th by a score of 38-20 but that game was in Norman. They need to dispose of TCU one more time but this time at a neutral site at Jerry World.
The Details
Oklahoma -7 TCU (63.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -9
Sagarin Ratings – Oklahoma -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 35.25 TCU 28.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Oklahoma 31 TCU 27
The Match-Up
Oklahoma offense vs TCU defense
The Sooners have the #1 offense in college football along with the best QB. That sounds pretty good. It is also important to note that they are equally deadly with the run and the pass AND one of the best kept secrets in college football is running back Rodney Anderson who has rushed for 100+ yards in five of the last six games since gaining a primary role in the offense. The last time these two teams hooked up Mr Anderson rushed for 151 yards and had 139 yards receiving. Oklahoma led 38-14 at halftime in that contest and basically had the Dr Pepper Guy and all his buddies suiting up in the 2nd half. They only threw 6 passes after halftime. They have one of (THE ????) best offensive lines in college football, a great tight end, excellent running backs, a solid WR group and the Heisman Trophy winner at QB who threw for 299 yards in the first half (!) in their last meeting. TCU has a great defense on paper but could not slow down the Sooners the last time they met and have trouble with elite offenses (Oklahoma 38, SMU 36, Oklahoma St 31).
TCU offense vs Oklahoma defense
Can Kenny Thrill Hill lead the Horny Toads to the promised land ? Well they have nobody with over 500 yards receiving and will be without #1 RB Darius Anderson who led the team in rushing the last time these two teams met. They are left with Kyle Hicks who has not registered a 100-yard rushing game in 2017. We have a hard time imagining TCU staying within a TD by the time this game is over but anything is possible. They will have to play almost mistake-free on offense and convert on over 50% on 3rd downs to stay competitive unless the Sooners are very generous with turnovers.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Oklahoma has gained 600 yards in Big 12 play whilst the Horny Toads have gained just 394……The Sooners allowed 390 yards in conference play and TCU gave up 318.
Summary
Oklahoma is a juggernaut. They are beatable, there is no doubt about that, but they have had their foot off the gas pedal several times this season. They led TCU 38-14 at half. West Virginia 45-10. They left the stadium at halftime vs Kansas and still won 41-3. It’s a cool story to think that HC Gary Patterson can win this game as HC but the reality is that TCU has less talent, have had a sub-500 record in two of the past five seasons and essentially a .500 record ATS the past 11 years. The point ? TCU is deadly when they have top-notch talent but this does not appear to be one of those seasons when compared to Oklahoma. When you look at the stats in Big 12 play the Sooners have a yuuuuuge edge in yards per play on offense (8.53 vs 5.74) and are not that far off from a defensive standpoint (4.83 vs 5.69). Oklahoma has proven they can shred TCU to pieces and there is no reason to think they cannot win by double digits on Saturday.
Conclusion
Official play: Oklahoma -7 -104 (sent 7:57 pm EST Nov 30) (play no higher than -7)