Week 14 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read.
We try to address as many games as possible every week. Check the “One-Liner” section at the bottom of the page for soundbytes.
Let’s go !!
Handy index: Quick Takes
- ULM at Florida St
- Akron at Toledo
- North Texas at Florida Atlantic
- Stanford vs USC (Friday)
- Idaho at Georgia St
- Memphis at UCF
- Fresno St at Boise St
Handy Index: One-Liners
- S Alabama at New Mexico St
- UMass at Florida International
- Louisiana at Appalachian St
- G Southern at C Carolina
- Troy at Arkansas St
Florida St -26.5 ULM (65.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 46 ULM 19.5
It’s alive !! It’s alive !!
Florida St needs only a win over Sun Belt member ULM to bag their 1,897th straight trip to bowl season. Joking aside, we think it is a good idea to get the guys into a bowl game and most importantly, get the additional bowl practices that are so essential to prepare for 2018.
This is a pretty big number to cover in our estimation. Florida St has only managed to put up 213,343,229 and 216 (!) yards in their past four games vs FBS competition. The good news ? They are facing one of the worst defenses imaginable that just finished allowing 67 (!) to Arkansas St. Florida St is going to get their points but it is hard to see them getting past the low 40s. ULM is playing with house money and are treating this like their bowl game. QB Caleb Evans has 3 (!) 350+ yard passing games in his past four contests. ULM moves at a quick pace and have scored 23+ in every game but two (S Miss, Auburn).
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? ULM team total over
Are we playing this game ? Sure, small potatoes.
Toledo -21.5 Akron (57.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -17
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 39.5 Akron 18
(Note – neutral site – Ford Field, Detroit)
It’s hard to believe but the Rockets have not been to the MAC Championship game since 2004 (beat Miami Ohio). They enter this game as gigantic 3-TD favorites and are obviously in great shape to take the hardware back to Toledo. Akron comes in with a 7-5 record battling in the weaker MAC East but still have a puncher’s chance. They are well coached and have an annoying habit of sticking around in games longer than you might think and even, heaven forbid, winning a few of said games. QB Tommy Woodson is apparently available but Kato Nelson has been fine in his absence and has a bit more mobility. Toledo TRUCKED Akron 48-21 at home earlier this season and amassed over 600 yards of offense. It’s hard to imagine Akron slowing down the great Toledo QB Logan Woodside (24-3 TD to INT; 3451 yards) so the prognosis does indeed appear to be grim. The question, of course, is can you lay that many points ? Seems rich, yo.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Akron TT over. (should find a way to 20 even in a senseless slaughter. Theoretically.)
Are we playing this game ? No, gonna take a pass.
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No, dude.
Florida Atlantic -11.5 North Texas (73.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida Atlantic -13
Vegas Implied Score – Florida Atlantic 42.5 North Texas 31
Rematch time, baby. And this bad boy will take place at the scene of the crime where FAU destroyed the Mean Green by a score of 69-31 whilst amassing over 800 (!) yards of offense (October 21). That’s right, it’s a home game for the Owls.
Florida Atlantic is demolishing almost everything in their C-USA path and need just one more win to cap off a great first season under your boy, Lane Kiffin. They have the number one offense in the conference but the Mean Green are close behind at #2. From a statistical standpoint the defenses are similar (FAU slightly better) but North Texas was ripped to shreds earlier in the year by this high-octane attack as noted above. There is no doubt that North Texas will score some points but how long can they keep up ?
Both teams are 9-3. FAU has outscored C-USA foes 368-191 whilst North Texas has a 293-251 margin. Almost nobody likes a bloodbath more than Lane Kiffin so it is hard to imagine a scenario where the Owls go under their team total. Close game, or blowout.
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? FAU team total over.
Are we playing this game ? Yup, small potatoes.
USC -4 Stanford (58)……….MEGALOCKS line – USC -3
Vegas Implied Score – USC 31 Stanford 27
The Trojans bring their 4-game winning streak to Santa Clara and face the Stanford Cardinal for ALL the PAC 12 MARBLES. USC has regrouped nicely off their humiliating defeat at the hands of the Fighting Irish and rolled off wins over Arizona St, Arizona, Colorado and UCLA. Not a murderer’s row of CONTENDAAAS but wins are wins are wins. The Trojans pounded Stanford 42-24 back in week two with a devastating offensive performance (307 rushing yards, 316 passing). They have the #2 ranked offense in the PAC 12 and have excellent balance. They are also fresh off a bye. Is there any good news for Stanford ? Well they have won eight of their last nine games, have one of the best running backs in college football (Bryce Love – 1,848), and look a LOT better on offense with K.J. Costello at the controls. Mr Costello did NOT play the first time these two teams hooked up.
This is a tough call. USC definitely has the more dangerous offense but we are yuuuuuge fans of Stanford HC David Shaw. The tiebreaker ? USC just seems like they are in a better spot coming off a bye whereas Stanford is coming off a 5-week meat grinder. And all it takes is one bad step for Stanford RB Love to get that ankle to act up again.
Fun fact: The PAC 12 South has never won this game (Stanford 3-0; Oregon 2-0; Washington 1-0).
Quick Take:
Opinion: Best play on the game ? USC -4. Situation is just too juicy. Would have really liked -3.
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No
Georgia St -6 Idaho (46)……….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 26 Idaho 20
Glug glug glug.
Idaho was hoping for a BLAST in their final season in the FBS but have turned out to be a DEAD MAN WALKING with a record of 3-8. Their past two games ? They lost to Coastal Carolina (at home) and New Mexico St and BOTH teams were playing with back-up scrub QBs. They only managed to tally 277 yards vs the Chanticleers and 215 (!) vs New Mexico St. They are down to their 3rd string true freshman QB who is making his first start this week and happens to weigh in at over 260 (!) pounds. That is not exactly the specimen required for the Paul Petrino offense. New Mexico St managed to bag a school record 11 (!) sacks last week, and while Georgia St will not remind anyone of the ROLL TIDE or Clemson defense, it seems unlikely that Idaho will be able to muster much offense on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Panthers are finishing up at home, and they have a shot at setting the school record for wins (7) on senior day. They are 5-2 in conference play and have played well against all but the big dogs in the conference. To summarize ? It feels like you would be making a mistake looking at the YTD stats with Idaho since QB Matt Linehan had played in 44/45 games for the Vandals and is not starting this week. The QB situation is a fiasco, not to mention the OL, and that makes it unlikely that they will stay within the number.
Official play: Georgia St -6 -104 (sent out 7:57 pm EST Nov 30) (play up to -6)
UCF -7 Memphis (81)……….MEGALOCKS line – UCF -6
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 44 Memphis 37
Whoa NELLIE ! If you like points you have come to the right place.
These two teams are a combined 21-1(!) this season and the two QBs have combined for 6,800 yards passing and 62 (!) TD passes. Oh, and both teams can run the ball as well. UCF can RELEASE THE KILLINS at a moments’ notice (96 yd scamper in their earlier meeting this season) and Memphis features a great 1-2 punch at RB that has combined for 1,700 yards and 20 rushing TDs. Memphis lost the first encounter with the Knights by a score of 40-13 and UCF racked up 600+ yards of offense whilst forcing four Memphis turnovers. The Tigers are playing pretty good football right now (7 game winning streak) and have tallied over 600 yards of offense in their last two games. UCF survived a life and death struggle with rival South Florida last week and were outgained 653-533. Thankfully a late KR TD propelled them to the win. They have been outgained in three straight games.
This feels like a ROCK EM SOCK EM shootout and is seems wise to take the points, yo.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? Memphis +7
Are we playing this game ? Sure, small potatoes.
Boise St -9.5 Fresno St (50.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 30 Fresno St 20.5
It’s deja vu all over again. Again. Again.
The Bulldogs and Broncos hook up on the SMURF TURF for all the Mountain West marbles just a week after their last encounter in Fresno. The Bulldogs won the game last week by a score of 28-17 and look to make it BACK-TO-BACK JACKS on Saturday night. Both teams play great defense and both teams are HUNGRY. The Bulldogs won just one (!) game last season and Boise has not won this game since 2014 which is a real “drought” for that program. It’s hard for us to justify a point spread this high but the market seems to be pricing in a big home field advantage despite the fact that the Broncos have been PURE FILTH ATS at home over the last two to three seasons.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? We like Fresno +9.5 and the under 50.5.
Are we playing this game ? Sure, small potatoes on both.
ONE-LINERS
New Mexico St -9.5 S Alabama (54)
Jags exist to torture us (Ark St 17 turnovers; lose to SA; SA loses 100-0 to G Southern); New Mex St needs game for bowl bid (last 1960). Pass
Florida International -1 UMass (55.5)
Tough call. Exhibition game. UMass done. FIU already bowl eligible. Line looks about right maybe a bit short. Pass.
Appalachian St -15 Louisiana (60)
Both teams motivated. App St for share of conference title; Louisiana for bowl bid; Line looks right; cold weather for Cajuns ? Pass.
G Southern -2 C Carolina (52)
Eagles on a two game winning streak and playing really well; C Carolina coming off a road win vs Idaho. Line looks right. Pass.
Troy -1 Arkansas St (60)
Arkansas St is virtually unbeatable at home in conference play but Troy is much more reliable. But the Red Wolves own the series. Argh. Pass.