Army vs Navy – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s one of our favorite sporting events of the year, and make no mistake, this is a VERY competitive game that should go down to the wire. Army has been a virtual PUNCHING BAG most of this CENTURY but they managed to break their 14 (!) game losing streak in this epic rivalry game last year. The Black Knights have an impressive 8-3 record and a shot a bagging a 10-win season for the first time since the 1600s. Navy has a record of 6-5 and have lost five of their last six games. It should be noted, however, that they have played a tougher overall schedule than Army and have won 17 (!) of the last 20 meetings.
Strap it on, yo. Let’s gooooooooo !
The Details
Navy -3 Army (46)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
Sagarin Ratings – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Navy 24.5 Army 21.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Navy 28 Army 25
The Match-Up
Navy offense vs Army defense
Navy brings the #2 rushing offense in the FBS into this game and there is no secret regarding their strategy on offense. Run the ball. Convert on 3rd down. Hit one or two big pass plays. QB Zach Abey should be healthy and ready to go for this game. Abey is more than capable of hitting the odd big play MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game but he has also tossed 7 INT in just 70 attempts. Army has been decent shutting down their opponents’ rushing attacks allowing just 3.1, 2.7 and 2.5 yards attempt in their past three contests (103,89,89 yards). On thing to keep in mind is that Navy has allowed 12 sacks in less than 100 attempts (12.1% sack rate). Army has bagged 24 sacks this season and we feel that a mistake or two whilst trying to MATRICULATE in the passing game may be a yuuuuuge advantage for Army.
Army offense vs Navy defense
Army has the #1 (!) rushing offense in the FBS and are going to challenge the Navy defense despite the fact that the Middies are very familiar with the triple option offense. Senior QB Ahmad Bradshaw is a LETHAL force on the ground amassing 1,472 yards rushing and 11 TDs at 7.8 yards a pop. They are deep in terms of complementary pieces to the rushing attack (Wolfolk, Walker, Davidson) and are going to present 60 minutes of hell to the Navy defense. Army has only allowed one (!!) sack all season long and actually won three games without completing a pass (!). Navy has the more dangerous rushing attack on paper BUT do not be surprised if it is Army that makes more big plays in the passing game. <grabs popcorn> The Black Knights have converted 53% of their 3rd down attempts (#1 FBS) and will be hard to stop on Saturday.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Army can capture the coveted Commander In Chief Trophy for the first time since 1996 (!) with a win in this contest.
Summary
This seems pretty straight-forward. The teams are REALLY close in talent and mistakes and big plays will make the difference (#HOTTAKE). We were hoping to catch more than a FG with Army but the line is sitting pretty firmly on 3 with LEANAGE to Army. We will sit tight and see what the market does tomorrow. If the line drops below 3 then we will pass. Not a big deal. We have the total lined at 45 so “46” seems about right.
Conclusion
Official Play: Army +3 -114 (sent 6:40 pm EST Dec 7) (play no higher than +3 -120)