Air Force at Michigan – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s always fun to see Air Force tackle one of the big boys and they get to do that this week in the BIG HOUSE on Saturday afternoon. The Falcons finished last season strong beating Boise St and winning their bowl game, and guess what, they kept the ball rolling in week one beating FCS foe VMI by a score of 62-zip. Meanwhile Michigan struggled a bit early against Cincinnati but rode two PICK 6s to a 36-14 victory. That’s bring their record to 2-0. It’s a yuuuuge contrast in styles let’s try and break it down !
The Details
MICHIGAN -24.5 AIR FORCE (53.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -18
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 39 Air Force 14.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Michigan 42 Air Force 17
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs Air Force defense
The Wolverines had good balance in their first two games rushing and passing for over 400 total yards in those two contests. QB Wilton Speight has been a bit shaky (52% completions) but let’s not forget he played Florida in one of those games. People love to jam stats together in a big blob and not account for who teams have played. That was a tough match-up. Speight had 221 yards passing with 2 TD and 0 INT last week so we feel that people need to take a CHILL PILL. Michigan will be able to rely on a deep and bruising ground attack led by Ty Issac (USC pedigree) who already has 247 yards rushing while averaging 8 (!!) yards a pop. Air Force only returns a single (!) starter on defense and ONE of the top 12 (!) tacklers from the 2016 unit. We ultimately feel that Michigan will have a balanced and successful day on offense scoring between 34 and 42 points. And don’t forget, the defense has a knack for scoring TDs, and we think they could bag one again.
Air Force offense vs Michigan defense
This is the key match-up. Michigan is going to get their points. The question becomes – how effective can Air Force be with their FLEXBONE action against a really good defensive front. Michigan is stout BUT this is a different style of offense than they are used to seeing. QB Arion Worthman is more than capable of hitting a big play in the passing game although the Falcons will miss their all-time leading receiver Jalen Robinette. TB Tim McVey is their most dangerous weapons as he can burn you in the running game and the passing game. If the Falcons can make decent yardage on first down they may be able to keep some long drives going. That is a tall order but not impossible. It all depends on how well the Wolverines can defend this style of offense. Sadly we will probably not know until mid-way through the first half.
MEGA-MAZING MORSELS
Air Force came to down in 2012 and lost a close one to Michigan 31-25……Both teams have conference action on deck (San Diego St, Purdue).
Summary
Not an easy game to pick a side ATS. We have the Falcons as the clear value play. The big concern is their defense which does not have much proven talent whatsoever. We know they will play hard but the Michigan offense can really stick it to you once they get rolling.
Conclusion
Small potatoes on Air Force any number 24 or better.