Week 3 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
Let’s go !!
Boise St -16.5 New Mexico (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 37.5 New Mexico 21
We get the week kicked off on Thursday with some SWEET MOUNTAIN WEST ACTION as New Mexico visits Boise St. The Broncos are coming off a tough 3-OT loss to Washington St – a game in which they led 31-10 in the 4th quarter. Oops. Meanwhile New Mexico lost to rival New Mexico St for the second consecutive season. They rallied from a 30-5 deficit to cut the lead to 30-28 but could not finish the comeback.
There are questions at QB for both teams. Boise QB Brett Rypien was hurt last week and Montell Cozart (Kansas pedigree – ?) is the next man up. Meanwhile New Mexico replaced an ineffective Lamar Jordan last week and gave redshirt freshman Tevaka Tuioti a shot. New Mexico ran for over 380 (!) yards vs Boise last season and won on the SMURF TURF in 2015. The big concern we have for LOS LOBOS is their defense which almost surely going to get ripped to shreds regardless of who is at QB for the Broncos.
Boise is 1-9 ATS L10 home games. CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY LOSES AGAIN.
Quick Take: We cannot recommend a play on this one given the uncertainty at QB for both teams. Gun to the head selection would be Boise TT over as they should be able to score in the 40s with anyone at QB.
Arizona -20 UTEP (60)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -20
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 40 UTEP 20
We have Arizona 23 points better than UTEP on a neutral field. Give the Miners 3 points (?) for home field – and well – you get the idea. The game looks pretty well lined. Bottom line – Arizona should be a 20-23 point favorite in our books and their rushing attack should go BANANAS against a UTEP D that got gashed for over 300 yards vs Rice. The Wildcats ran for over 500 yards in week one vs Northern Arizona. They were in tough against Houston last week (888 STAR MEGALOCKS HAMMER PLAY LASER LOCK WINNER) and should roll vs UTEP.
PAC 12 play begins for Arizona next week.
Quick Take: Really bad match-up for UTEP. Then again, every match-up is probably less than optimal for the Miners these days. We cannot trust the Arizona defense and going to take a pass on this game.
Temple -14.5 Massachusetts (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Temple -8
Vegas Implied Score – Temple 33.5 Massachusetts 19
This line is out of whack. Of course Temple can win by 21 but it seems like Vegas has had enough of the UMASS FADE TRAIN. The Minutemen have started out 0-3 SU and ATS but all three losses were close calls (3,10,10). Hawaii and ODU are in the same area code as Temple. Coastal Carolina could give Temple a game at home. Here is the problem. Sadly, we were hoping for Massachusetts to at least sniff bowl contention BUT their season is basically over. They are a team without a conference and need to rattle off 6 wins in the next 9 games to reach bowl eligibility. And they will have to do it against the MEAT of their schedule (Tennessee, Ohio, USF, Miss St, BYU, etc….). They emptied the tank the first three weeks so we give them a lot of credit. The UMass run game has been weak so far but QB Andrew Ford is pretty good. They should be able to score some points.
Temple got their teeth kicked in by Notre Dame and then scraped by Villanova last week. We are not high on the Owls this season, but to be fair, they have a new HC and several new faces on offense including QB L Marchi (0 int in 69 ATT this year). Our gut tells us that the talent difference between these two teams is not that far apart BUT recognize we are guessing a bit with Temple.
The Owls have a big game with USF next week.
Quick Take: Strong lean to UMass at any number +14 or better. This will not make the official card due to lack of data on the NEW Temple Owls. We also have a strong lean to trying for a BETTE MIDDLER on this game for small potatoes. Take UMass +14.5 and wait until the line drops because we feel it almost certainly will. Maybe you can get Temple -11 or -12.5 ? The international MEGALOCKS MONEY MOVING machine is well at work already this season so once this write-up hits the air waves you may see it start trickling down. Just kidding. Not really.
South Florida -17.5 Illinois (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Florida -16
Vegas Implied Score – South Florida 34.5 Illinois 17
Well well well. What do we have here ? Illinois SHOCKED the WORLD last week with a win over WKU. It wasn’t just the win – but they REALLY put the clamps down on the Hilltoppers. Did not see that coming. Now the offense is still a YUUUUUUGE concern to us but maybe just maybe they can hang within the number ? So Flo has looked shaky so far at times but they might be able to take advantage of the very young Illinois defense with all that speed and an all-UNIVERSE QB.
TREND GUY notes that USF is 10-4-1 ATS L15 at home. Also note though that the Bulls have a conference game with Temple on deck.
Quick Take: Feels like a no play to us. The Illini might actually have something cooking if they get decent QB play. Just need to see one more game out of them. And the Bulls have been too flaky so far for our tastes.
Iowa St -10 Akron (63)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -8
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 36.5 Akron 26.5
How are the Cyclones going to respond after the bitter OT loss to rival Iowa last week ? We were impressed with their play but still have serious concerns about their defense. They have a serious set of TRIPLETS on offense with QB/RB/WR – Park/Montgomery/Lazard which will allow them to score points on almost anyone. Meanwhile Akron was mutilated in week 1 by Penn St and then proceeded to hammer FCS opponent Ark Pine Bluff 52-3. We do not know much about the Zips yet this season but we DO know they are experienced and well coached.
Quick Take: Tough call. Best small potatoes play appears to be on the under at 61 or better. Only if you have issues and need to get down.
Coastal Carolina 2 UAB (59)………..MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -3
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 30.5 UAB 28.5
Here we go peeps ! Coastal Carolina is an EMERGING JABBAWOCKEE after their opening win over UMass. Don’t look now, but they ran for over 300 yards in that game and looking at their schedule, it is not inconceivable that they could start the season 5-0 (!). Meanwhile UAB is sitting at 1-1 after losing to Ball St last week despite outgaining the Cardinals 504-377. There are some things to like about those wacky Blazers.
Quick Take: This feels like a tossup. That is the furthest thing from a HOT TAKE but we would recommend staying clear of this game.
Utah 27 San Jose St (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah -28
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 41.5 San Jose St 14.5
By now dedicated MEGALOCKS members know that we are high on the Utes and are always ENTRANCED at the possibility of backing them vs Vegas. They came through in another 14 TRILLION STAR MEGALOCKS MESSAGE BOARD SCUMBAG WENDYS DRIVE THRU EMPLOYEE WINNER vs BYU but will they be able to rebound this week ? First off – if you have not seen Utah QB Tyler Huntley – WHOA – this guy has a serious case of the QUICKS. And he can MATRICULATE in the passing game. Utah should be able to operate under a more traditional paradigm this week as they face the Spartans at home before PAC 12 play begins. Utah can name their score but we forecast 38-45 points on the board. San Jose St has one more week to get their teeth kicked in before facing some reasonable competition.
Quick Take: Feels like a Utah play or nothing. San Jose St will get better but we cannot imagine they have too much interest in this one.
ROLL TIDE 28.5 Colorado St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -28
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 41 Colorado St 12.5
That pretty much sums it up, yo. 41-13 or so is our best guess as well. ROLL TIDE looks really good right now and this is a nice spot after a cakewalk vs Fresno St. The Rams looked good on offense vs Oregon St and Abilene Christian but only scored 3 on the Buffs. Feels like they will max out at 10-13.
Quick Take: No play. Game looks perfectly lined to us.
OHIO ST 30 Army (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 41.5 Army 11.5
Whoa Nellie ! The Buckeyes are coming off an unexpected SPANKING at the hands of the Sooners but have a nice 3-game stretch to try and right the ship. The problem is that Army is gonna fight you for four quarters and do whatever it takes. Last week the WACKY Black Knights faked a punt up 21-17 to ice the game vs Buffalo. STONES. We think they can battle and stay within the number BUT we worry about their ability to MATRICULATE at all in the passing game. At least Navy and Air Force are capable of throwing a forward pass. Army did not complete a pass in their first game (wut ?) and have only 20 passing yards in two games.
Quick Take: Slight leanage for small potatoes on Army at any number 28 or better.
Notre Dame 13.5 Boston College (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -14
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 31.5 Boston College 18
The Eagles look at bit lost to us right now on offense. They beat a decent Northern Illinois team in week one (but were outgained) and lost 34-10 to Wake Forest thanks in large part to a (-4) turnover margin. And they were outgained. Meanwhile Notre Dame battled a really good Georgia team for four quarters and lost by a point. They looked pretty good to us but there may be a slight letdown AND this is a BIG game for Boston College. CONFLICTING SIGNALS, yo.
Quick Take: Not gonna touch this one. We can see both sides. We prefer Notre Dame due to the confusing QB situation and offensive strategy currently employed by Boston College. Then again, their defense should keep them in it. PUZZLER. Run away !
Oregon -14 Wyoming (59)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -16
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 36.5 Wyoming 22.5
The QUACK ATTACK is BACK baby. Then again – they can only boast victories over Southern Utah and Corn – but it definitely feels like this team will do better than 4-8. CONGRATS MEGALOCKS SEASON WIN TOTAL SMOKESHOW WINNERS. Was that a jinx ? Meanwhile – back at the ranch (literally) – the Cowboys are sitting at 1-1 and quietly building a BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT in the Mountain West. This will be their 2nd really tough test (Iowa week 1) and they will do well to stay within the number in this one.
From a fundamental standpoint this should be a week that Wyoming can score some points BUT the running game has been a no-show so far. The defense has been solid. Oregon had a couple of soft defenses to torture for 60 minutes and feel like they are legitimately back.
Quick Take: No official play. Strong lean to Oregon at any number 14 or better. Lean to the over 60 or better for small potatoes.
Duke -14.5 Baylor (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Duke -14
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 36.5 Baylor 22
It seems like yesterday when Baylor team totals would routinely be in the 50s. The Bears are off to a rocky start with losses to Liberty (wut ?) and UTSA (wut ?) and hope that QB Zach Smith can get the offense going. They only managed 274 yards of offense AT HOME last week vs the Roadrunners. Duke QB Daniel Jones is an emerging star and is coming off a 300 yard passing / 100 yard rushing performance vs Northwestern. And the defense looks good.
Quick Take: Baylor ? Glug glug glug. The MEGALOCKS SUPERCOMPUTERS tell us the line is bang on BUT we have a gut feeling that Baylor has at least one more really horrible game left in the tank before things start turning around. Lean to Duke at -14 or better for small potatoes as there are still some 14s out there as we go to press.
Iowa -21.5 North Texas (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -24
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 37.5 North Texas 16
The Hawkeyes are sitting at 2-0 after a yuuuuge OT win over rival Iowa St. QB Nathan Stanley threw 5 TD passes (0 INT) last week and gets to face another soft pass defense this week that was shredded by SMU a week ago. Iowa should also be able to do whatever it wants on the ground. Our primary concern is the fact that this is a big time SANDWICH game for Iowa coming off the OT win and having Penn St and Michigan on deck.
Quick Take: No action on this game. Gun to the head selection is Iowa up to -23.5 for small potatoes.
Oklahoma St -13 Pittsburgh (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 38 Pittsburgh 25
We are in the minority on this one from what we gather. Oklahoma St is on SUPAH HOT FIRE dating back to their SPANKING of Colorado in the Alamo Bowl. They have won their last three games by a combined score of 141-39 (!) and that includes wins over the aforementioned Buffs and a good Tulsa squad. Even South Alabama is not chopped liver. QB Mason Rudolph has 6 TD and 0 INT this season, they sport three 100-yard rushers and an all-world receiver in James Washington. Pitt outgained Penn St last week. Congrats you still got blown out. And they were outgained by Youngstown St in week one. The QB situation is a big step down from last season (at least in our view) and they just do not have the tools in the toolbox to keep up for four quarters. They did play well at Okie St last season only losing by a TD.
Quick Take: We lean to the Cowboys at -13.5 or better for small potatoes. Line is sliding down a bit as we go to press keep an eye on it may be able to get a better deal if you agree with us.
Texas Tech -7.5 Arizona St (76.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 42 Arizona St 34.5
Buckle up, kids. Last season these two teams hooked up in a wild 68-55 shootout. Arizona St won that game and hung over SITTTY on the Red Raiders and you know they will want to respond in kind. The problem for the Red Raiders is their comical defense that has yielded over 40 points per game for three straight seasons. They have only played one game so far and it is hard to say if they will be much better in 2017. Arizona St beat the EMERGING JUGGERNAUT New Mexico St Aggies in week one and were shut down at home last week losing to the Aztecs. QB Manny Wilkins looks good so far completing 70% of his passes with 0 INT. And we know who has the better defense – even though it may not be very good either.
Quick Take: Would take Arizona St at +7 or better despite the revenge angle. Small potatoes only. We are not great at predicting totals when the number is in the 70s but cannot imagine it going under. Will take a pass, though.
Missouri -7.5 Purdue (77.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -6
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 42.5 Purdue 35
Get the calculators out, yo. Do they still make those ?
Missouri started out hanging 72 points on FCS foe Missouri St and then were beat by S Carolina in a mild home upset. Purdue gave the Cardinals a decent battle in week 1 and then throttled a usually-scrappy Bobcats team in week 2. Both offenses look good. Both teams appear capable of making a run at a bowl game but this is a game that each team really wants to have. Purdue is a TD underdog but has to feel that this is a game they can win. They look balanced on offense and will just have to figure out a way to prevent Missouri QB Drew Lock from going completely crazy on them. It feels like the Purdue rushing/passing balance will help them stay within the number.
Quick Take: Lean Purdue for small potatoes at +7.5. Never going to play a total that high. Sorry.