Michigan at Purdue – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s Big 10 conference play time, yo.
Michigan has rolled to a 3-0 start but has struggled a bit on offense. This week they travel to Purdue to face the JUGGERNAUT Boilermakers who are sitting at 2-1 and full of confidence. These teams last met in 2012 when Michigan administered a 44-13 SPANKING. Can Purdue pull off the upset ?
The Details
MICHIGAN -10 TEMPLE (51)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -14
Sagarin Ratings – Michigan -14
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 30.5 Purdue 20.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Michigan 38 Purdue 17
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs Purdue defense
Yes. We get it. The Michigan offense has not been lighting it up. 10 trips into the red zone with just one TD. The offensive line has struggled. The good news is that they have moved the ball generally well between the 20s and that was against a really good defense (Florida) and two good ones (Cincy, AF). It will not help losing leading WR Tarik Black, but at this point, we do not see much of a downgrade given all the young (unproven) talent at WR. Keep your eye on BUDDING JUGGERNAUT Donovan Peoples-Jones. The running game should work against Purdue and RB Ty Issac is averaging over 7 yards per carry even though it seems like he is running in quicksand at times. Look out when he gets to the 2nd level though, yo. Michigan has been brutal in the red zone but their PK Quinn Nordin is a freak and pretty much guarantees them 3 points every time they are inside the 30 yd line.
As for Purdue, there is no doubt they have surprised most people this season so far (CONGRATS MEGALOCKS PURDUE SEASON TOTAL OVER CLUB MEMBERS), but the defense is still a bit of a question mark. They only have ONE (!!) sack so far in three games and are 2nd last in the Big 10 in yards per play allowed. One way or another we expect Michigan to get at least 27 points in this game.
Purdue offense vs Michigan defense
Purdue – meet brick wall. Brick wall – meet Purdue.
DC Don Brown appears to have cobbled together another elite stop unit despite returning only one starter and losing seemingly a dozen starters and backups to the NFL. The Wolverines are ranked #5 in the FBS in total defense, #9 in rushing defense (despite playing AF) and #7 in pass efficiency defense. They are also 2nd in the big 10 right now in sacks per game and TFL per game. Purdue only rushed for 51 yards vs LUA-VUH and are going to find it tough sledding on Saturday. QB David Blough is off to a good start but remember that he threw 21 (!) INT last season. If the Boliermakers get one-dimensional (a virtual certainty) it is going to be tough to MATRICULATE in the passing game.
MEGA-MAZING BITS
Michigan games are on a 12-4 run to the over in conference play……Purdue is an ice-cold 1-10 ATS L11 games as a home dog although we will note that they have a NEW and BETTER HC in 2017.
Summary
Michigan has not looked great on offense so far but this will be the softest defense they have played to date. On the flipside, Purdue is going to be in for a little bit of a shock on offense, and we feel that over 60 minutes the cream will rise to the top.
Official play
Michigan -10 -105. Play up to -11.