Temple at South Florida – College Football Predictions
The Game
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
South Florida will look to avenge last season’s loss to Temple when they clash in Tampa on Thursday night. The Owls won the game 46-30 last season, and as a result, won the tiebreaker that allowed them to make it to the AAC Championship Game and WIN THE WHOLE ENCHILADA. The Bulls have been shaky at times this season but drilled Illinois at home last week to move to 3-0. Temple sits at 2-1 after wins over UMass and Villanova but have been outgained in all three contests.
The Details
SOUTH FLORIDA -20.5 TEMPLE (58.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – South Florida -17
Sagarin Ratings – South Florida -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: South Florida 39.5 Temple 19
Massey Ratings Projected Score: South Florida 35 Temple 28
The Match-Up
South Florida offense vs Temple defense
Star QB Quinton Flowers is starting to heat up with an 8-2 TD to INT ratio and 243 rushing yards so far in 2017. The Bulls feature three players with over 200 yards rushing and now face a Temple run defense that has displayed a SOFT UNDERBELLY so far this year and they are ranked #95 in the FBS vs the run. The Bulls should be able to put up 450+ yards in this game BUT will have to be aware of the PENETRATION the Owls are capable of bringing to the table. The Owls are ranked #3 (!) in the FBS in sacks (14) and #17 in TFL whilst the Bulls have allowed a lot of negative plays (last AAC TFL and sacks allowed). The good news is that their offense can score from anywhere on the field at any time. The Owls will make some plays on defense and need to prevent the Bulls from converting on 3rd and long when they get them in a bad spot. The Owls are young but do have some talent on that side of the ball (e.g. S Sean Chandler).
Temple offense vs South Florida defense
QB Logan Marchi may not be an emerging star BUT he has done a decent job so far throwing for 5 TDs with 0 INT in over 100 pass attempts. The WR group is the strength of the offense and they could give the Bulls some problems MATRICULATING in the passing game. The worry we have is the running game as they are ranked #116 in the FBS and that is AFTER playing UMass and Villanova. South Florida’s run defense has been really good so far but they have not played anyone of note as of yet. The Bulls have enough speed on defense to give the Owls problems and Temple is going to have to find a way to hit some big plays in the passing game to keep it close. The Bulls have also done a good job with PENETRATION and the Owls OL will be put to the test. Keep an eye on freshman QB Todd Centeio who gets good grades from MEGALOCKS TEMPLE QB INSIDERS. He may get some action in this game.
MEGA-MAZING BITS
South Florida is 8-1-1 ATS L10 as a home favorite…..Bulls home games are on a 10-2 run to the over…..Temple got SPANKED 44-23 the last time they were here in 2015.
Summary
The market disagrees with us. We think this line is at least a FG too high, but having said that, Temple is going to have trouble slowing down this Bulls’ defense with so many new players in the front 7. It is a conference game, however, and we feel that Temple will play their best game of the season on Thursday. Let’s see if it is good enough.
Conclusion
We like the Owls at +20 or better for small potatoes. Not going to get involved for anything more than that as we do not have a handle on the quality of the Temple defense as of yet.