Duke at North Carolina – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s the battle for the Victory Bell as the undefeated Blue Devils take on the Tar Heels this Saturday. Duke has looked really sharp so far but have played two cupcakes (NC Central, Baylor) to go along with a SPANKING of Northwestern. UNC is sitting at 1-2 with losses to Cal (not as bad as we thought) and LUA-VUH. A loss in this game would lead to an 0-2 conference start for North Carolina. Not good.
The Details
DUKE -2.5 NORTH CAROLINA (66.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Duke -3
Sagarin Ratings – Duke -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Duke 34.5 North Carolina 32
Massey Ratings Projected Score: North Carolina 35 Duke 31
The Match-Up
Duke offense vs North Carolina defense
The Blue Devils have looked sharp so far in 2017. QB Daniel Jones keeps getting better and they complement the passing game with a great 1-2 punch at RB (Shaun Wilson, Brittain Brown) that has delivered over 500 yards on the ground so far and 6 TDs. The OL need to do a better job at preventing PENETRATION as they are near the bottom of the ACC early on terms of TFL and sacks allowed per game. North Carolina has struggled vs the run so far and rank 2nd last in the conference in rushing defense and yards per carry allowed (4.64). They are also 2nd last in pass efficiency defense allowing 8.9 yards per attempt and a poor 9 TD to 3 INT ratio. Now while it is true that they have played Cal and Louisville we still wonder if the defense will be able to stop Duke from controlling the time of possession and the scoreboard.
North Carolina offense vs Duke defense
The Tar Heels have been rolling on offense so far putting up 30,35 and 53 in their first three games. QB Chazz Surratt looks like a real keeper at QB and we have been very impressed watching him play. Surratt has completed 70% of his passes so far with a 4-0 TD to INT ratio. Brandon Harris had his moments vs LUA-VUH and provides depth. They have depth at RB and a deep set of WRs. If the OL can hold up against a Duke defense that has gotten PENETRATION so far we are going to see some points. There are just too many good players on offense. Duke is ranked #1 (!) in the FBS in run defense so far but this will be their first big test. The Northwestern OL could not handle the Duke front 7 but the UNC OL may have a better shot. It should be interesting.
MEGA-MAZING BITS
TREND GUY notes that the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings for the Victory Bell……The last time Duke played here they got smoked 66-31.
Summary
This is a really tough game to call. Our gut feel tells us that the Duke defense will be the difference maker. We are just not 100% sure about how good (great ?) UNC QB Chazz Surratt is at this point in time. In fact HE could be the difference maker. UNC has also been more tested (Cal, LUA-VUH) and may have just a hair more incentive (Duke won last year; do not want to start conference play 0-2).
Conclusion
No official play yet. Lean to Duke but would want to see the line steamed down to a Pick Em for an official play to be considered. Slight leanage to the under 66.5.