Florida at Kentucky – College Football Predictions
The Game
30 games. 30 Florida Gators victories. It has been a LONG time between drinks for the emerging JABBAWOCKEE Kentucky Wildcats in terms of finding a way to beat Florida. Talent issues. Cheating refs. Blown assignments. We have seen it all. Can Kentucky end the streak of FUTILITY on Saturday night ? Let’s dig in.
The Details
FLORIDA -3 KENTUCKY (44)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
Sagarin Ratings – Florida -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida 23.5 Kentucky 20.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Florida 28 Kentucky 21
The Match-Up
Florida offense vs Kentucky defense
It has been a struggle so far, yo. QB Feleipe Franks needs to get a bit of a pass in our humble opinion as the weapons are not there – particularly given the suspensions to key offensive contributors. Franks has completed 62% of his passes but has just 2 TD passes to his credit and one of those was the HAIL MARY bomb vs the Vols. The running game has not been spectacular to say the least and the WR corps is unproven and really miss star Antonio Callaway. Fun Fact – Florida is 2ND LAST in the SEC in yards per play offense (5.20). Yes – they played Michigan – but they also struggled vs the Tennessee defense.
The Kentucky defense has been pretty good and THAT was the reason we laid off SOUTH CACKALACKY last week. Whew. 1-3 would have been worse than a stinky 1-2. But we digress. Kentucky has played some decent offenses and only allowed 17,16 and 13 points. Now they get Florida. The only improvement we hope to see is the ability to get PENETRATION. Florida may be the tonic for that as they have given up way too many sacks and TFL so far.
Kentucky offense vs Florida defense
Can senior QB Stephen Johnson deliver the goods ? Kentucky faithful would go BANANAS with a victory. So far he has been pretty efficient completing 63% of his passes with a 2-1 TD to INT ratio. He is limited when MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game due to a lack of weapons right now at WR. TE CJ Conrad is their most devastating option. The good news is that they have the best offensive player in the game in RB Benny Snell. Yes, he will be limited against a solid Florida defense, but at some point you know he will probably be the difference maker.
Fun Fact #2. Florida is LAST in the SEC in yards per play defense (5.95). And they played Michigan. They have too many injuries and suspensions to count and that severely impacts their depth AND the ability to play Gators defense for four quarters. The guys are playing their eyeballs out but there is only so much they can do.
MEGA-MAZING BITS AND PIECES
30 straight losses vs Florida. ‘Nuff said.
Summary
We have no defense. TREND GUY has to be licking his/her chops even with a 28% win rate vs Vegas over the past 100 years. Kentucky is cursed – right ?
Well we know one thing. It is hard to trust anyone who picked LSU -7 last week like we did. But we digress yet again. Longtime MEGALOCKS DEEP INSIDERS know that we pay very little attention to trends – not that you cannot win focusing on that aspect of handicapping – but we like to take a more holistic approach. The Wildcats appear to be the better team om paper (#suspensions) AND don’t forget that Florida is in a prime letdown spot. Week 1 – YUUUUUGE game vs Michigan. Week 2 – Hurricane. Week 3 – Win on a Hail Mary vs hated rival Tennessee. Now they get a jacked up Kentucky team that knows this is their best shot in 290 years to beat the Gators. Forget the crowd. We just think the team is going to be LASER-FOCUSED to give a top notch effort and the Gators can be excused IF they do not play their best. They are only human.
Official Play
Kentucky +3 -115. Would play down to Kentucky +1.5.