Week 4 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
Let’s go !!
Tennessee -26 Massachusetts (58)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -24
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 42 Massachusetts 16
Well, let’s hope this game does not come down to a Hail Mary attempt by UMass. Too soon ?
We are not DOOM and GLOOM guys. Tennessee lost a tough one to Florida last week but if they take care of business the rest of the way and beat Georgia (lose to ROLL TIDE) they still have a shot to make the SEC Title Game. Not great odds, we GET IT, but let’s not all go FREAKY FREAKY.
This is a nasty sandwich situation for Tennessee as they face the WACKY Minutemen in between dates with Florida and Georgia. And they are really banged up. The problem for UMass (obviously) is that the Vols outgun them from an athletic standpoint all over the field. UMass lost another close one last week (now 0-4) and we feel like this may be a lay down and die spot.
Quick Take: One of the worst spots imaginable for Tennessee and we really like the FIESTY Minutemen but not gonna pounce on them here. Leanage to the over any number 59 or better.
Ohio St -40 UNLV (63)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -37
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 51.5 UNLV 11.5
This is last tune-up for the Buckeyes before Big 10 play begins. Make no mistake. If Ohio St can run the table they will be in the playoff at the end of the season. They will have razor sharp focus from here on out. The question becomes – are they interested enough to blow UNLV to bits ? Well, one thing is certain, they have Rutgers on deck so there will be no looking past the Rebels. We should note that even though UNLV lost to something called HOWARD they are pretty capable on offense and could put up a TD or two.
Quick Take: Slight leanage to UNLV at 39+ for small potatoes.
Oklahoma -28 Baylor (62)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -24
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 45 Baylor 17
There is some perceived value in the line based on our ratings but we have no interest in backing the Bears for a full unit at this point. QB Zach Smith got the start last week and hit some big plays (263Y) while throwing 3 TD and 3 INT – but – he was only 12/34. The defense has not been horrible but they face the Sooners great QB Baker Mayfield who has led them to a pair of 50+ point games.
Quick Take: Gun to the head selection Baylor for small potatoes at +28 or better.
ROLL TIDE -18.5 Vanderbilt (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -17
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 31 Vanderbilt 12.5
It’s SEC time for Alabama and the first test is a road game vs a scrappy Vanderbilt team. The Commodores came up with a nice win last week vs Kansas St (a 888 STAR MEGALOCKS LASER LOCK LOSER) and get full marks for the victory. Oh, and by the way – One of these teams has only allowed 13 (!!) points all season and and it is not ROLL TIDE. Vandy is #1 in the FBS in total defense and scoring defense and ROLL TIDE has not been exactly explosive on offense so far this year. The Vandy running game has been a bit of a struggle (Ralph Webb – 2.6 yards per carry) but QB Kyle Shurmur has been excellent with a 8-0 TD to INT ratio. TREND GUY notes that Vandy games are on a 21-7-2 run to the under L30. 43 is a tough number for us to go under.
Quick Take: Lean small potatoes to Vandy +18.5. First half may be the way to go if you can get +10 or better.
West Virginia -21.5 Kansas (68.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -21
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 45 Kansas 23.5
The Mountaineers bring their undefeated record to Kansas on Saturday afternoon and take on the struggling Jayhawks. West Virginia played a really good game against Virginia Tech and then destroyed East Carolina and something called Delaware St. Do we REALLY know how good they are? Kansas has struggled BUT they have put up 400+ yards offense in all three games. The last two times WV traveled to Kansas they won 49-cack (2015) and lost 31-19 (2013).
Quick Take: Well the first number we saw Sunday afternoon was a -14.5 that lasted about 4 milliseconds. We tried to get down for small potatoes but the line ran away from us too fast. Now that it is up to -21.5 we are going to completely avoid this game. Can’t make a case for Kansas (maybe SWEET BACKDOOR ACTION ?) but when we miss the boat we miss the boat.
LSU -23 Syracuse (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -21
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 39.5 Syracuse 16.5
Well that escalated quickly. We thought very highly of the Tigers but obviously were proven wrong in a 7777 star MEGALOCKS STEAM LATE CELL PHONE RELEASE LOSER last week. What do we do now ? Well they definitely hold a talent edge almost all over the field – of course – one of the exceptions is at QB. Eric Dungey has 209 rushing and 4 TDs to go along with decent passing numbers although, to be fair, the LSU defense is a huge step up from Central Connecticut, MTSU and Central Michigan. Mobile QB Nick Fitzgerald gave the Tigers fits last week and maybe just maybe Dungey can create enough havoc to stay within the number. LSU visited the Cuse two years ago and slugged their way to a 34-24 win.
Quick Take: Tough call. We need to take a pass on LSU games for at least a week until we get a better read on the defense. We know about the offense. Small potatoes lean to Syracuse at +23.
Auburn -19.5 Missouri (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -18
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 37.5 Missouri 18
We think the demise of Auburn football is #FakeNews. Yes they only beat Mercer by a score of 24-10, but on the flipside, they only lost to Clemson on the road by EIGHT points. They have given up just 31 points in three games. Missouri is a freaking grease fire what is going on ? We just cannot figure this team out other than to say maybe they really stink. They outgained South Carolina 423-359 and they got pasted by YOUR Purdue Boilermakers. The defense appears to be the same disgusting mess as last season.
Quick Take: There is not any line “value’ in our view BUT we still have leanage to the Tigers at -19.5 and would play them up to -21.
Louisville -44 Kent St (57)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -41
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 50.5 Kent 6.5
Pffffffffffffffffffft. Air out of the balloon.
How does Louisville rebound after the loss to Clemson ? Well we know they CRAPPED THE BED last season when things were lost. But this is Kent St. And the Golden Flashes are without starting QB and TOUGH AS NAILS performer QB Nick Holley (done for the season). We are not going to sugar-coat this mess. Once you get into the 40s in terms of point-spreads you are REALLY just guessing. That is just our two cents. We will never lay 44 points and cannot back Kent St for obvious reasons.
Quick Take: No play. Run. Run away from this game.
Tulane -2.5 Army (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Army -2
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 24 Army 21.5
The Black Knights bring the #2 rushing attack (365/game) to the table when they face Tulane on Saturday. The bad news ? They only have 36 (!!) total passing yards in three games. Tulane recently proved that they could shut down a very similar Navy offense that ALSO had the ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game. It seems to us that Army will do well to get into the low 20s in this one. Meanwhile check on the status of Tulane QB Jonathan Banks as he is listed as Q as we go to press. The Green Wave have displayed a decent running game so far but are ranked #126 in passing offense.
Quick Take: Feels like a coin toss. Would take Army at small potatoes if it moved to +3. Strong lean to the under 45.5.
Stanford -7.5 UCLA (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Stanford – 6
Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 35 UCLA 27.5
Will the REAL Stanford please show up ? The Cardinal has beat UCLA NINE straight times and look to make it a 10-bagger on Saturday night. Super tough game to handicap. The Bruins’ defense is a joke and they have trouble running the ball BUT also sport one of the best QBs in college football in CHOSEN ROSEN. Stanford has struggled mightily the past two weeks and are now ranked #111 (!!!!!) in rushing defense and #114 in 3rd down defense. RB Bryce Love is fantastic but we have no idea what to make of this team right now.
Quick Take: No play. Will be tempted to throw UCLA in our ML dog parlay wheel this week.
Nebraska -11.5 Rutgers (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska – 9
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 29 Rutgers 17.5
It’s pretty much do or die time (this early ?) for CORN as they need to bag a couple of wins to get to 3-2 before the meat of their schedule kicks into gear. Last week they only allowed 213 yards but TWO pick 6s and that did them in vs the Huskies. It’s hard to believe that they will not give their best effort this week – but the question is – will that be enough to cover double digits ? We don’t know much about Rutgers yet ALTHOUGH is seems clear that HC Chris Ash has them playing a lot better than last season (HOT TAKE). They gave Washington a bit of a battle in week one and lost 16-13 to an Eastern Michigan team that is pretty decent. Last week they drilled Morgan St 65-cack. This is their first road test. Gonna watch and see if we can learn something for later weeks.
Quick Take: No play. Was hoping for a total closer to 50 to play under for small potatoes. No dice.
Houston -6.5 Texas Tech (71.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Houston -7
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 39 Texas Tech 32.5
Houston. We do NOT have a problem. The Cougars are off to a 2-0 start and have padded MEGALOCKS STEAM PLAYERS with cold hard cash in back-to-back weeks. This is a tricky one. Texas Tech is #1 in the FBS in total offense and passing offense early on and there is no way of knowing how Houston will hold up vs the high octane Red Raiders attack. Texas Tech has hung FITTTTY in both of their first two games. Not much history to go on with these teams. Their last meeting was in 2010. Both squads have conference play on deck.
Quick Take: We usually avoid Texas Tech games from a betting standpoint. Gun to the head selection on this one is over 71.5 for small potatoes.
South Carolina -8 Louisiana Tech (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -10
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 30.5 Louisiana Tech 22.5
The Gamecocks suffered a big loss with the injury to do-it-all playmaker Deebo Samuel who had already accumulated 6 TDs (offense, special teams) and now need to have someone else step up (or multiple players). South Carolina is 2nd last in the SEC in total offense and rushing offense. They are also 12th in SEC total defense. Louisiana Tech is coming off a yuuuuge win over rival WKU and have to think that they have a shot to upset the apple cart once again. QB J’Mar Smith had 306 yards passing in the comeback win last week.
Quick Take: Line looks about right to us. We would be interested in SC lower than 7 and La Tech at 11+. Not gonna happen. Lean to the under 53 for small potatoes.
Miami Florida -13.5 Toledo (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami Florida -14
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Florida 35.5 Toledo 22
This just might be the toughest game to handicap of the entire season. Miami has not played since the Sept 2nd exhibition with Bethune-Cookman (41-13) and has ACC play on deck. And unknown quality at QB. Meanwhile Toledo is coming off a crazy 54-51 (!) win over Tulsa and only have conference play on deck. How will their top-notch offense match-up with the speed that Miami brings to the table.
Quick Take: No clue. But will be cheering for YOUR Miami Hurricanes.
Texas A&M -2.5 Arkansas (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -3
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 28.5 Arkansas 26
Get cho popcone ! Two of the last three meetings have gone to overtime and there is no reason to think that this will not be another tight one. Arkansas is sitting at 1-1 after getting drilled at home by TCU BUT they are coming off a bye and some extra prep time. Texas A&M is a major choke job (UCLA) away from being 3-0. True freshman Kellen Mond has looked pretty good at QB and they get back star RB Tray’veon Williams for this game. We really don’t know what to think about the Razorbacks and that makes choosing a side very difficult. Arkansas needs to play a whole lot better than they did vs the HORNY TOADS if they want to compete on Saturday.
Quick Take: Lean to the Aggies -2.5. Small potatoes.
Penn St -12.5 Iowa (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 32.5 Iowa 20
It’s Big 10 time, baby ! We finally get to see how these teams really stack up. Penn St sits at 3-0 after beating Akron and Georgia St by a combined 108-0 (!) and sliding by Pitt 33-14. This will be their first real test. Iowa ? Well they have a similar 3-0 mark BUT have done it against three teams they will most likely all miss bowl season (Wyoming, Iowa St, North Texas). Penn St superstar RB Saquon Barkley is averaging 8 yards per carry (!) while also leading the team in receiving yards. And they still have the MAN Trace McSorley at QB. Iowa has had a tough time getting PENETRATION and after watching the Iowa St game we wonder how in the SAM HILL they are gonna slow down the Penn St offense. The cover will come down to the performance of QB Nathan Stanley (10 TD 1 INT) vs the Penn St secondary. RB Akrum Wadley is fine for this game but they will be without #2 James Butler. Iowa is 4-11-1 ATS L16 home games. Hey ? CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY loses YET AGAIN.
Quick Take: Our initial lean was to Iowa but we have flipped over the other other side. Lean to Penn St at -12.5 for small potatoes.
Washington -12 Colorado (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -10
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 31 Buffs 19
The Huskies have been gorging on CREAMPUFFS for the better part of a month (Rutgers, Montana, Fresno St) but now it is BIG BOY time as they take their 3-0 record to Colorado Saturday night. Full disclosure – we are still high on the Huskies – but we are very interesting to see how they perform on the road vs a solid opponent. Now we do not know much about the 3-0 Buffaloes other than they played well vs Colorado St and they pounded a pair of turds in week 2 and week 3. The defense has been solid so far but the Huskies bring one of the best QBs in college football (Jake Browning) to town along with a really good D and fantastic special teams performer (Dante Pettis).
Quick Take: Going to avoid this game unless the line drops a bit. Would lean small potatoes to the Huskies at +11 or better.