Northwestern at Wisconsin – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go.
The Badgers have disposed of a collection of virtual stiffs to start the season and begin Big 10 play with a battle vs the always-scrappy Northwestern Wildcats. Wisconsin is off to a 3-0 start in which they outscored their opponents to the tune of 130-30 (!). The Wildcats are sitting at 2-1 with two wins over trash (Nevada, BG) and a blowout loss to the JUGGERNAUT Duke Blue Devils. Both teams are off a bye and ready to go at it. Let’s dig in.
The Details
WISCONSIN -14.5 NORTHWESTERN (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wisconsin -13
Sagarin Ratings – Wisconsin -17
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wisconsin 33 Northwestern 18.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Wisconsin 30 Northwestern 17
The Match-Up
Wisconsin offense vs Northwestern defense
Here is a shocker. The Badgers have a new devastating RB. True freshman Jonathan Taylor has 438 yards and 5 TDs through the first three games of the season (8.3 yards per carry). QB Alex Hornibrook is off to a fine start with a 8-1 TD to INT ratio and the UNCOVERABLE ONE Troy Fumagalli is averaging 16 yards per catch whilst leading the team in receiving yards. This looks to be another classic Wisconsin offense, but to be fair, the real tests start this Saturday. Northwestern has been disappointing so far on defense and that gives us pause for concern. They are ranked 90th in the FBS in total defense and #113 in 3rd down defense. Given that Wiscsonsin OWNS the FOOTBALL (#1 FBS time of possession – 37 minutes) this feels like a really tough assignment for the Wildcats.
Northwestern offense vs Wisconsin defense
Things seem a little off. Northwestern had the privilege of facing the Nevada and Bowling Green defense but struggled to get the running game going. RB Justin Jackson only has 245 yards rushing through three games at just 4.5 yards per carry. QB Clayton Thorson had a fine 22-9 TD to INT ratio last year but is just 3-2 so far after three games. NW really struggled against the Duke defense and this week they get Wisconsin who are ranked #7 in total defense in the FBS and #10 vs the run. It seems to us that the Wildcats are going to need some short fields and a couple big plays to stay competitive. Long bruising drives do not appear to be in the cards.
MEGA-MAZING MUNCHIES
The last three meetings between these two teams have been SNOT BUBBLERS…..21-7,13-7 and 20-14 final scores.
Summary
At first glance it appears to be a lot of points, and it may end up that way, but we need to see the REAL Northwestern (the good one) show up at least once before we pounce on them. We were high on the Wildcats before the season and fear we may have blown that call. Then again, it’s still early, yo.
Conclusion
No official play. Lean to Wisconsin at -14 or better for small potatoes.