USC at Washington St – College Football Predictions
The Game
What a Friday night showdown. It’s a battle of PAC 12 undefeated teams as USC visits Washington St. The Cougars have played a really soft schedule and needed an epic 4Q comeback to beat Boise St in 3-OT. But 4-0 is 4-0. Meanwhile USC has only looked dominant in one win (Stanford) but have definitely put together a better resume. What’s gonna go down ? Let’s dig in !
The Details
USC -3.5 WASHINGTON ST (65)
MEGALOCKS LINE – USC -3
Sagarin Ratings – USC -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USC 34.25 Washington St 30.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: USC 35 Washington St 28
The Match-Up
USC offense vs Washington St defense
We know this USC offense can be great. The problem is the maddening inconsistency given the talent on hand. They were amazing vs Stanford but have not lived up to the hype in their other games. QB Sam Darnold has completed 67% of his passes but also thrown 7 (!) INT. The rushing attack is in good shape with R Jones and S Carr. WR D Burnett already has 462 yards receiving to go along with 5 TDs. The Washington St defense has been pretty solid this season but has not been tested as of yet. USC may not get to their team total (35 or so) but they should be able to put up some points. If the Cougars can win 3rd down (29th FBS 3rd down defense) and bag a couple of three and outs they are going to be in great shape.
Washington St offense vs USC defense
MEGALOCKS longshot Heisman BOMB QB Luke Falk is off to a good start with a 14-1 (!) TD to INT ratio while completing 77% (!) of his passes. It should be noted that he struggled vs Boise St AND has not faced much on defense. This week that will change. The Trojans have a lot of talent on defense and are #4 in the PAC 12 in pass efficiency defense. They have not gotten a lot of PENETRATION but we do worry about the Cougars who are giving up a lot of sacks and tackles for loss despite playing weak competition. Last year they finished in the top third of the PAC 12 in TFL allowed per game. Something is going on. It’s early but just something to keep an eye on. Washington St may be able to tally some valuable rushing yards in this one given how the Trojans’ run defense has looked at times in 2017.
MEGA-MAZING MUNCHIES
USC is on a 9-1 SU run vs Washington St BUT they have not played since 2014 (44-17 win) AND almost all of those games were before the Mike Leach era. The under is 14-6-1 L21 Washington St home games.
Summary
The spread looks about right to us. We were high on the Cougars in the summer and remain so as we go to press. We expect a tight game. Our sadness ? After this game either CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY will win (Washington St) or FADE THE PUBLIC DOG GUY will win (USC). Both guys are tools but it is inevitable someone has to win at -3.5.
Conclusion
No official play yet. Probably going to stay clear completely and just enjoy the game. If the line hits -3 we would have to consider the Trojans but do not think that is going to happen once the hard core USC money starts piling into Vegas vaults.