Iowa at Michigan St – College Football Predictions
The Game
This is really sneaky under-the-radar game Saturday afternoon as the Hawkeyes visit the Spartans in Big 10 action. Iowa lost an absolute heartbreaker to Penn St last week at home but still sit at 3-1. This is a yuuuuuuge game for them as they probably cannot afford to pick up a 2nd Big 10 loss given the way that YOUR Wisconsin Badgers are looking this season. The Spartans got trucked by Notre Dame (a 67,000 STAR MEGALOCKS MAX UNIT BUNKER BUSTER BOMB LOCK) but have to feel pretty good entering Big 10 play sitting at 2-1. They have not looked great BUT the QB looks ok. The defense looks pretty good. And if they clean up the turnovers there is no reason why they cannot have a good campaign. Let’s go !
The Details
MICHIGAN ST -3.5 IOWA (45)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan St -1
Sagarin Ratings – Michigan St -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan St 24.25 Iowa 20.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Iowa 20 Michigan St 17
The Match-Up
Michigan St offense vs Iowa defense
The Spartans definitely have promise on offense. We definitely like their balance (#30 FBS rushing, #56 passing) and they managed to put up 496 yards of offense on Notre Dame even though a lot of that came when the game was already decided. QB Brian Lewerke has a 6-2 TD to INT ratio and just might become REALLY good by the time this season is over. The ground attack has been acceptable so far. Iowa has some really good players on defense (LB J Jewell, emerging JUGGERNAUT DL AJ Epenesa) but they are sitting at 13th (!) in the Big 10 in yards per play allowed and were outgained by Penn St 579-273 last week. The Spartans are a pathetic #127 (!) in the FBS in turnover margin and will be fine as long as they don’t wet the bed with turnovers. The passing game is sneaky good and we think they will get into the 20s.
Iowa offense vs Michigan St defense
Alert MEGALOCKS subscribers know that we have been high on Iowa since the summer. At least in terms of exceeding expectations. Run game, defense, coaching, efficient QB play. CHA CHING. The offense has been good enough so far but we worry about their ability to score points when playing above average defenses. QB Nathan Stanley has a 12-1 (!!) TD to INT ratio and RB Akrum Wadley is one of those rock solid RBs you do not hear much about. The bad news is that Michigan St is ranked 9th in total defense, 6th in pass efficiency defense and 9th in 3rd down defense. Despite our glee over the Notre Dame result we were impressed by the Spartans when they were not shooting themselves in the foot AND they held the Irish to just 355 total yards. Points are going to be hard to come by on Saturday for Iowa.
MEGA-MAZING MUNCHIES
The last time these teams met it was an epic 16-13 SNOT BUBBLER win for the Spartans in the 2015 Big 10 Championship……Iowa is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 vs Sparty.
Summary
The handicapping process is so interesting. We initially leaned Iowa. Now we are thinking Michigan St ? Argh. Iowa is more trustworthy BUT Michigan St has more upside AND Iowa is coming off an emotional loss.
Conclusion
No official play. Gun to the head selection is Iowa if the line goes to +4 but only for small potatoes. Otherwise we would stay clear. There will plenty more opportunities to play on or against these teams. Godspeed.