LSU at Florida – College Football Predictions
The Game
Houston. We have a SNOT BUBBLER. <Apollo 13>
The Tigers travel to the SWAMP this week for another edition of LSU/Florida. It will be interesting to see how they rebound after the epic home loss to Troy last week. They still only have one SEC loss and should bring their best game on Saturday. As we said last week, the Gators have earned a lot of respect from our SEC INSIDERS for how scrappy they have been all season in the face of all kinds of distractions. If they can find a way to weasel a couple more SEC home wins it sets them up nicely for a DATE WITH DESTINY (Georgia) on October 28th.
The Details
FLORIDA -3.5 LSU (46.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida -6
Sagarin Ratings – Florida -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida 25 LSU 21.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Florida 21 LSU 17
The Match-Up
Florida offense vs LSU defense
The Gators will go with Feleipe Franks this week at QB and he has looked good enough so far this season. It looks as though Florida will be without their #1 WR Tyrie Cleveland who is starting to make a name for himself as MR BIG PLAY. The good news is that the LSU defense has displayed a soft underbelly vs the run and the Gators should be able to pound the running game to set up some shots down the field. Troy RB J Chunn rushed for 191 yards vs the Tigers last week. One way or another LSU has yielded 37,26,24 in their last three games so it is not impossible to think the Gators might be able to find a way to get into the 20s.
LSU offense vs Florida defense
The LSU offense will be a lot better if a healthy RB Derrius Guice comes to play on Saturday. That would make a pretty good 1-2 punch (D Williams – 320 yds rushing) to keep the Gators occupied. QB Danny Etling is a decent game manager but needs to be better than that given the state of the defense and running attack (not up to LSU standards). What really killed LSU last week vs Troy was the 0-9 (!) stat on 3rd downs. They have to find a way to stay on the field to keep the defense fresh. The Gators have been decent on defense but have clearly been missing depth due to injuries and suspensions. Vanderbilt had a decent game plan last week taking a lot of deep shots but we don’t think LSU will have the same game plan (or success).
MEGA-MAZING MUNCHIES
The average margin of victory in the past five meetings between these two teams is 7……TREND GUY notes that the Gators are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games….LSU games are in a 15-5-2 run to the under L22.
Summary
The way people are talking it is like LSU is equal to Missouri. We think they can give the short-handed Gators a battle. When push comes to shove, however, the Gators have proven to be a tough out this year. Tough call.
Conclusion
We were interested in grabbing the Tigers when the line was closer to six. It looks about right now. Strong lean to the under 46.5. Would not go lower than 45.