Kansas St at Texas – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go. It’s time for Texas and Kansas St to start showing their hands in Big 12 conference action. Kansas St has a record of 3-1 but cannot boast a victory over anyone better than Baylor. RUH ROH. Texas got their teeth kicked in at home in week one by the Maryland running game but have really STIFFENED UP since then holding a good Iowa St offense to 7 points and almost beating the Trojans on the road. HOOK EM ? Let’s dig in.
The Details
TEXAS -3.5 KANSAS ST (50)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas -4
Sagarin Ratings – Texas -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas 26.5 Kansas St 23
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Kansas St 26 Texas 24
The Match-Up
Texas offense vs Kansas St defense
The Longhorns have struggled to gain yards and put up points in the past two games scoring just 24 and 17 vs USC and Iowa St (!) respectively. QB Shane Buechele should be good to go but MEGALOCKS BIG 12 WALKING BOOT INSIDERS note that there may be a bit of an ankle issue. We like him more right now vs S Ehlinger. RB Chris Warren is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and WR Collin Johnson is DOMINATING early on with 393 receiving yards at 21.8 yards a pop. The issue ? The #2 and #3 WRs are each averaging less than 11 yards per grab. And Buechele has only thrown 3 TD passes so far. Kansas St plays rock solid defense and get excellent PENETRATION whilst leading the Big 12 in yards per play defense (4.59) in their spare time. Their schedule has been easy but stats are stats. We expect tough sledding for Texas.
Kansas St offense vs Texas defense
MEGALOCKS fav QB Jesse Ertz continues to carry the offense on his back. He is not a prolific passer (K St #104 passing offense FBS) but is tougher than a $3 steak when running the football. Crafty and faster than you might think. Sadly he faces a really good Texas run defense that has stepped up big time since the Maryland debacle. They held USC to 71 rushing yards and Iowa St JUGGERNAUT RB D Montgomery to just 34 yards. This appears to be an awful match-up vs an improving Longhorns’ defense that can stop the run.
MEGA-MAZING MUNCHIES
HC legend Bill Snyder is 21-9 ATS L30 as an underdog…..They are catching over a FG in this one…..Kansas St’s three wins came against patsies Central Arkansas, Charlotte and Baylor.
Summary
This feels like a SNOT BUBBLER. Two good defenses. Two anemic passing games. We will likely see a special teams TD in this one but feel like the clock will be running a LOT. Grab some bench and cheer on the defenses.
Official play
Under 50 -107 (Pinnacle). 50 is available at the majority of books although there are a couple 49.5s and a 49. Play down to 48.