San Diego St at UNLV – College Football Predictions
The Game
Can it continue ?
San Diego St continues moving towards a DATE WITH DESTINY and a big time bowl game. They have started out 5-0 and pretty much KNOW they need to finish undefeated in order to get to a major bowl game. They slithered by a tough Northern Illinois squad last week and get their second taste of conference action (W – Air Force). Meanwhile UNLV is a burgeoning JUGGERNAUT even after the loss to something called Howard. They whipped San Jose St last week as a 900 STAR MEGALOCKS SUPER STEAMER LOCK despite being a “public trap”. HAAAAAAAAA. <falls over> <gets up> <falls over again> <orders burger and fries from message board tough guy>. They can easily make a bowl game given the pathetic state of the Mountain West this season.
The Details
SAN DIEGO ST -10 (57) UNLV
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -13
Sagarin Ratings – San Diego St -13
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 33.5 UNLV 23.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: San Diego St 38 UNLV 21
The Match-Up
San Diego St offense vs UNLV defense
The soft underbelly of the Rebels’ defense better get ready for some serious GROUND and POUND. Star RB Rashaad Penny has over 800 (!) yards rushing and could conceivably cross the century mark this weekend. QB Christian Chapman is not flashy but gets the job done (7-1 TD to INT ratio) and he goes up against the #119 (!) defense in the FBS (#110 pass efficiency defense) that struggles in all aspects of stopping MATRICULATION by opposing QBs. The Aztecs are giving up more PENETRATION than we would like to see but go up against a defense that has a lot of trouble creating negative plays. It seems unlikely that the Aztecs are held to under 30 points.
UNLV offense vs San Diego St defense
The Rebels have a nice set of triplets that the Aztecs need to be ready to defend. QB Armani Rogers, RB Lexington Thomas and WR Devonte Boyd are all TOP NOTCH skill position players that can do some damage against this defense. The Aztecs are #1 in the conference in yards per play defense but did allow over 400 yards last week to N Illinois. The Rebels have rushed for 300+ yards in 3/4 games and will test the #47 ranked rushing defense more than you might think. San Diego St is also yielding 60% completions.
MEGA-MAZING MUNCHIES
San Diego St is #1 in the FBS in kickoff return average and UNLV’s kickoff coverage / kickoff depth is going to be an issue in this game…..Maybe just hoof it out of bounds every time and take the penalty ?…….San Diego St is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 conference games.
Summary
This just might be a more interesting game than anticipated. UNLV has the weapons to score on almost anyone but we worry a LOT about the defense. The Rebels are getting some love in the handicapping community but keep in mind they have only beat Howard, Idaho and San Jose St.
Conclusion
No official play. Lean to UNLV TT over for small potatoes.