Miami at Florida St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go !
It has been a LONG time since Miami was close to Florida St in terms of talent, and there is no doubt, college football is better when the BIG THREE in Florida all have solid programs. Miami is sitting at 3-0 with wins over Toledo (yes, they are good) and Duke whilst the Seminoles were life and death last week to get past Wake Forest and earn their first victory. KEEP IN MIND that Florida St has played ROLL TIDE and an emerging JABBAWOCKEE in NC State so it is not like they are struggling with crappy teams. What is going to happen on Saturday ? Let’s dig in.
The Details
MIAMI -3 FLORIDA ST (46)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -3
Sagarin Ratings – Florida St -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 24.5 Florida St 21.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Miami 28 Florida St 23
The Match-Up
Miami offense vs Florida St defense
The Hurricanes have been very balanced on offense so far (#22 rushing in FBS, #36 passing) and are sure to provide some challenges for the Florida St defense. QB Malik Rozier has been solid with an 8-2 TD to INT ratio to go along with mobility. RB Mark Walton is averaging 9.2 (!) yards per carry but seems to injure his ankle on every 2nd play. The Canes are glad to have WR Ahmmon Richards back in the fold and he looked really good vs Duke last week. Our worry ? They have not been good on 3rd downs and this is still an inexperienced QB we are talking about here. Florida St has been up against some pretty good teams in 2017 but have not passed the MEGALOCKS ACC EYE TEST INSIDERS EYE TEST. Trust us – that is way more reliable than the ESPN eye test. They are #88 in the FBS in pass efficiency defense and just 12th (!) in the ACC in sacks per game. It seems to us that Miami should be able to make some noise on offense provided that they do not have turnover issues.
Florida St offense vs Miami defense
What can we say ? Nobody expected Florida St to lose starting QB D Francois to injury and have to deal with a tough schedule riding on the back of a TRUE FRESHMAN. James Blackmon looked pretty good to us vs NC State and not as good vs Wake Forest. The big issue we see is the offensive line which is ranked DEAD LAST in the FBS in TFL allowed per game. Like for real, like. That is a big deal, like. Miami caused all kinds of trouble for Duke with their DL and front 7 so this is going to be a really tough match-up for the Seminoles. The Hurricanes are #2 in the ACC in sacks per game and TFL per game. Florida St has some talent at RB but it is hard to get things going when the OL is struggling. They are going to take their deep shots on offense but we find it hard to believe they can score enough points to win without several big plays and/or help from the defense.
MEGA-MAZING MUNCHIES
TREND GUY ALERT……The underdog is 15–3 L18 in this series…..The road team is 9-2 L11…???
Summary
Let’s have some real talk. As Miami fans we are JEALOUS of the success of Florida St this decade. And this century (??). This just feels like the BEST scenario possible for Miami given their HUNGER for a win in the series and the unfortunate injury to the starting QB at Florida St. Just as last season, we may bet against Florida St early, but will absolutely be looking to bet them later in the campaign.
Final thought ? If you are worried about this being a “public” play you probably need to (seriously) stop wagering on college football (regardless of what happens in this game). Just make the best plays (however you personally define “best”) and let the chips fall where they may. Florida St can ABSOLUTELY cover but will need great play from the defense and/or a +2 or better turnover margin.
Official Play
Miami -3 +101 (Pinnacle). Play up to Miami -3 -120.