Week 6 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
Let’s go !!
ROLL TIDE -26.5 Texas A&M (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -24
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 41.5 Texas A&M 15
ROLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL TIDE.
Alabama has won their last two games by a combined score of 125-3 and are destroying everything in their path. In those two games they rushed for 800+ yards (!) and were +73 (!) ATS. They have the #14 offense in the FBS and the #6 defense. Underrated QB Jalen Hurts has not thrown an INT yet and has rushed for 461 yards. The Aggies are sitting at 4-1 (aren’t they always ?) and could easily be 5-0 without the unbelievable meltdown vs UCLA in week one. Freshman QB Kellen Mond appears to be a keeper and Texas A&M fans have to be excited for the future. The run defense has been solid (#15 FBS) but get pretty much the ultimate test this weekend. Interesting factoid. Texas A&M is #1 in the SEC in sacks and TFL per game. Not saying just saying.
Quick Take: First one out of the foxhole gets shot. We cannot get in front of the ROLL TIDE train yet for a full play but think Texas A&M +27 or better for small potatoes is mildly interesting.
Auburn -21 Ole Miss (57)………..MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -23
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 39 Ole Miss 18
The Tigers are going relatively unnoticed so far despite sitting at 4-1 and they CLEARLY seem to be the 2nd best team in the SEC West. Auburn has only allowed 7,14,10,14,10 in their five games and have a balanced offense to go along with a really good defense. Speaking of defense – they are #1 in the SEC in yards per play allowed (3.77) (!!). Ole Miss just finished getting SPANKED by ROLL TIDE 66-3 and cannot be in a great frame of mind (#HotTake). QB Shea Patterson is really good but the defense is questionable and the team confidence is FRAGILE. Not a great combo when you have to face Auburn. The last two times Ole Miss went to Auburn they lost by 8 points but these are different times. And different times call for different measures, yo.
Ole Miss is 1-10 ATS L11. RUH ROH.
Quick Take: Lean Auburn any number -21. Would play up to -24 for small potatoes.
Kentucky -11.5 Missouri (58.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -11
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 35 Missouri 23.5
This ain’t yo momma’s Kentucky Wildcat team. Yes, they blew the game vs Florida for the 900th straight time, but they are sitting at 4-1 and are on track for their best season since 2007. First things first. They need to dispose of a putrid Missouri team that may indeed be putrid – but they are a team that can MATRICULATE in the passing game and put up points. The Kentucky run defense is ranked #3 in the FBS (!) but they will have their hands full with QB Drew Lock. Missouri is ranked #109 in total defense, #129 in turnover margin, #120 in 3rd down defense and #129 in time of possession. That is what we call “coaching”, folks.
Quick Take: Have at it if you wanna bet this game. Kentucky is a lot better but Missouri is off a bye and can score. Line looks about right. Gonna stay clear of this one.
Georgia -17.5 Vanderbilt (41.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -14
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 29.5 Vanderbilt 12
Yes, guy.
The Bulldogs continue to mow down all comers en route to a DATE WITH DESTINY in the SEC Title Game with ROLL TIDE. Of course Florida will have something to say about that, but right now Georgia looks really really good. They have only allowed 10,19,14,3,0 in their five games so far and have an emerging STAR at QB in freshman Jake Fromm. They have won their last two games by a combined score of 72-3 (!) and have not given up 300+ yards in any game. Vanderbilt is interesting. It is actually the PASSING game that has been working with QB Kyle Shurmur quickly developing into one of the SEC’s best. The ground attack has not worked at all and the run DEFENSE is ranked #107 in the FBS. Oh, and the Commodores have given up 97 points in their past two games.
Quick Take: Not going to fade HC Derek Mason again. Like maybe as long as we live, like. This feels like a lot of points. Lean to Vandy TT over. Any thing under 14 should get the money.
Boise St -8 BYU (44)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise -7
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 26 BYU 18
Whoa.
It wasn’t long ago that this match-up was one we all looked forward to watching. Fast forward to the year 2017 and we have a MESS at BYU and, dare we say, an emerging TRAIN WRECK at Boise St. BYU is pretty much DEAD TEAM WALKING as they are a team without a conference. Sure, they have some easy games left and can still get to six wins, but the best match-up they can hope for might be the SONIC TATER TOTS BOWL vs UTEP. Then again, you could spin it as THIS is BYU’s bowl game, especially since the rest of their opponents are nothing to get excited about, yo. We have no idea what the QB situation will be like on Friday night but rest assured it will not be pretty. If Beau Hoge cannot go it will likely be 120-pound Koy Detmer Jr taking the snaps. The defense has been ok but they have to stop turning it over. Boise is sitting at 2-2 and are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Virginia. The bye week should help and the Broncos have this tune-up before Mountain West play begins on October 14.
Quick Take: FADE THE PUBLIC SHEEP GUY (career record of 37% ATS, message board bully and proud Drive Thru worker at Burger King) will be all over BYU but we cannot endorse betting on that team right now. The QB situation is a mess and this feels like the spot that Boise breaks out of the funk. Or maybe not. TREND GUY notes that the home team has won 6 straight in the series. Lean to Boise at -8 would play up to -9.5 for small potatoes.
Iowa -18 Illinois (43)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -18
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 30.5 Illinois 12.5
This game has SNOT BUBBLER written all over it. Sadly the line and total look about right to us. Illinois is approaching PURE FILTH status and you know Lovie Smith is probably not going to be able to coach these guys up after they laid an egg at home (28-6 loss to the Huskers) off a BYE last week. The one thing they do have going for them is a defense that should be able to handle most of what the Hawkeyes bring to the table. And Iowa is off two meat grinders (Penn St, Michigan St) and might be caught sleep-walking to start the game. Illinois QBs have a 2-6 (!!) TD to INT ratio while Iowa QB Nathan Stanley has a 12-1 ratio to complement the solid running of our man Akrum Wadley (who also leads the team in receiving yards).
Quick Take: Game looks perfectly lined to us. Gonna take a HARD pass.
Army -13.5 Rice (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Army -16
Vegas Implied Score – Army 30 Rice 16.5
The Black Knights are REALLY close to being 4-1 but have a late Tulane TD to thank for sitting at 3-2. Still pretty good. You know they want to get bowl eligible as quickly as possible because the end of the schedule looks a bit tougher than we might have originally thought. There is no doubt that they should be able to shred the Rice run defense to pieces but keep in mind that Army is basically incapable of completing a forward pass AND they have only covered the spread vs one FBS opponent (blowout loss to Ohio St – covered by a point). Yes, we know they are a triple option team but their leading receiver has TWO catches all season. Let that sink in. Rice is an ABOMINATION of FILTH in 2017 but they have played better defense since the Stanford DEBACLE.
Quick Take: Lean to Army -13.5. Would not play higher than -14. Small potatoes.
Arkansas St -7 Georgia Southern (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas St -9
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 31 Ga Southern 24
Here is a surprise. We lean Arkansas St again. Something about that team makes us always want to bet on them. Good news ? QB Justice Hansen should be healthy and ready to go along with some other bodies. They are also 15-1 (!!) straight up in conference play the last two seasons which is a testament to the coaching and overall competitiveness of the program. We do worry about a defense that gave up 43 points to Nebraska and 44 to SMU. Just not sure what we have here yet. We also don’t know much about Ga Southern who has not played since Sept 23 (!) although we suspect they are terrible. Who knows ? They need to get back to running the ball like FREAKS and maybe the time off will help ?
Quick Take: Lean to Arkansas St -7 for small potatoes. Would not play higher than -8. This game should help us learn for future weeks.
Wisconsin -11.5 Nebraska (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -10
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 29.25 Nebraska 17.75
Yo, Corn !
The Huskers are sitting at 3-2 after wins over Rutgers and Illinois, and while you can say that means about as much as the hole of a donut, confidence means a lot. And as we alerted last week Nebraska has started to play better defense (213,194,199 total yards allowed last 3 games). Wisconsin only managed to bag 306 yards at home vs Northwestern against their SOFT UNDERBELLY and we wonder just a bit about how they stack up against CORN in this one. Corn is banged up in the backfield but who really knows what to make of their injury reports. What we do know is that you should keep an eye on the status of THE UNCOVERABLE ONE Badgers TE Troy Fumagalli who missed last week.
Quick Take: Lean to the Huskers at +11.5. Small potatoes. Our spidey senses are tingling about this one not sure why.
Ohio St -30.5 Maryland (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 40.5 Maryland 10
We thank our lucky stars that we avoided Minnesota last week. Maryland had an impressive GUT CHECK win over the wacky Gophers with 3rd (4th ?) string QB Maz Borteschlaegersherer at the controls. The running game was rock solid (262 yards) and the defense was really good. The problem ? This week they get the Buckeyes who have put up 586+ (!) yards of offense in every game except one this season (Sooners, Buckeyes rematch anyone ?? get cho popcone). Ohio St is poised for a DATE WITH DESTINY November 25 at Michigan for the Big 10 Title and trip to the playoff. Of course, Penn St will have something to say about that.
Quick Take: Slight leanage to Maryland TT over 10 if you can find it. Would not go higher than that. Otherwise we would take a pass. If Maryland cannot run who knows how ugly this could get. BUT they do have enough weapons to cobble together 10 points.
Penn St -14.5 Northwestern (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 34 Northwestern 19.5
This is a tough one to handicap. There is no doubt that NW can hang with Penn St “on paper” but they just left it all out on the field vs Wisconsin and now need to run the table AND have the Badgers to lose twice for their best shot at winning the division. They only put up 244 yards last week and 191 vs Duke. The offensive line is just not doing the job and now they get Penn St. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, we really like this Nittany Lions team but they have only beat Akron, Pitt, Georgia St, Indiana. And Iowa (last second TD). So YES we like them but should they be laying over 2 TD on the road vs a team we still think (despite their warts) is pretty good ? Hard to say. Penn St also has bigger fish to fry after their bye week when they play Michigan and Ohio St in back-to-back weeks. GET CHO POPCONE.
Quick Take: Lean to Northwestern at +14.5 for small potatoes. No lower than +14.
Purdue -4 Minnesota (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Purdue -3
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 25.5 Minnesota 21.5
Two emerging JUGGERNAUTS go head-to-head in Big 10 action on Saturday as Minnesota visits Purdue. The Boilermakers are sitting at 2-2 with losses to Michigan (!) and LUA-VUH (!) while the Gophers fell to 3-1 after being upset at home (Maryland). MEGALOCKS BIG 10 INSIDERS have advised that Purdue QB David Blough is good to go (probable) but there is concern about the running back depth due to injuries. Their defense is ranked last in the Big 10 in yards per play defense and they have had serious trouble getting PENETRATION. We are not sure what to make of Minnesota other than the QB situation is sketchy. They have played Buffalo, Oregon St, MTSU and Maryland so you can make the case this is their best opponent to date ? Their defense has also struggled getting PENETRATION and we worry about the Purdue ground game going nuts if they can find a healthy body or two. Maryland gashed them for 262 last week.
Quick Take: Slight leanage to Purdue -4 but prefer Minny TT under 21.5 for small potatoes. No lower than 21.
Texas Tech -17.5 Kansas (80.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -14
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 49 Kansas 31.5
Ok, pop quiz. Which of these teams is NOT going to hit their team total ? Tough call, right ? We hate going over totals like this but there promises to be plenty of fireworks in this game. Texas Tech almost pulled off the upset vs Okie St last week and we are not sure how they will be “mentally” heading on the road to take on Kansas. Absolutely a letdown spot. Big picture we are quite a bit higher on the Red Raiders now than we were during the summer. They can still linger around in the Big 12 race. Kansas is off a bye but have allowed 45,42 and 56 points the past three games. RUH ROH. The offense has been really good but it will be a challenge to keep up with Texas Tech.
Quick Take: Lean to Kansas at +17.5 and the Jayhawks TT over for small potatoes.
Oklahoma -28 Iowa St (68)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -24
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 48 Iowa St 20
Here we go, kids. It’s the stretch drive for YOUR Oklahoma Sooners fresh off a bye and ready to lay on some more beatings. They have scored 56,31,56 and 49 in their four games so far and now get to face an Iowa St defense that gave up 5 TD passes (!) to Iowa. The Cyclones have been pretty competitive all season but could only manage 256 yards of offense last week vs Texas. Oklahoma has the big game with Texas next week but have covered the number the past two years in the same look ahead spot.
Quick Take: We feel that Iowa St is scrappy enough to stay within 4 TDs and still have faith in HC Matt Campbell. Lean to Iowa St +28 for small potatoes would play down to +27.
Clemson -22 Wake Forest (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -21
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 34.5 Wake Forest 12.5
Clemson appears to be on a collision course with DESTINY after spanking Virginia Tech last Saturday night (a 777 star MEGALOCKS MESSAGE BOARD TROLL LOSER). ROLL TIDE is in the FRONT VIEW MIRROR. Meanwhile Wake Forest lost their first game of 2017 last week in the last minute vs Florida St. They are scrappy. The last time they failed to cover 23 points vs Clemson was back in 2013.
Quick Take: Recommend running far away from this game, Forrest.
Memphis -13.5 Connecticut (70.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -11
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 42 Connecticut 28.5
Longtime MEGALOCKS PLATINUM MEMBERS know we very rarely step into the pool when two horrible defenses and good passing offenses hook up. Memphis in ranked #125 (!) in total defense and just got their teeth kicked in by UCF. The Huskies have the #126 (!) total defense but showed they can MATRICULATE in the passing game with 400+ yards vs SMU. This feels like a back and forth affair with UConn scoring some points and probably staying within the number. Memphis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games while UConn is 5-16-1 ATS L22 at home. Have fun.
Quick Take: Lean to UConn +13.5. Better play may be the TT over. Strong leanage to any number less than 30.
UTSA -13 Southern Miss (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -9
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 32 Southern Miss 19
Whoa. Southern Miss was a big LOSER last week for MEGALOCKS TRIPLE DIME CLUB members losing straight up to North Texas at home. They were ripped to shreds by the high-powered Mean Green offense after starting very quickly in the first quarter and a half. The UTSA attack is very measured and very efficient. After witnessing last week’s debacle we have to pass on S Miss this week as we may still have them rated too high. Meanwhile UTSA is an EMERGING JABBAWOCKEE sitting at 3-0 with great stats across the board especially on defense (#1 3rd down defense, #2 total defense FBS). Of course they have played a comically easy schedule so it is also hard to get a read on how good they are. We do know that MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB members are happy sitting on a UTSA +725 ticket to win the conference.
Quick Take: Our gut tells us that UTSA smokes them but it feels like a LOT of points. We almost always pass the game in situations like this, yo. Gonna grab some bench and observe.
Washington -28 California (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -23
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 40 California 12
The Huskies have flown under the radar so far despite starting out at 5-0, but of course, that is due mostly to a really soft schedule. Respect is earned, not given. Or something like that. Nonetheless they look very impressive and strong across the board. The Golden Bears are 0-2 in PAC 12 play after starting out 3-0. They are definitely improved but appear to be in tough. The Huskies drilled Cal 66-27 last season but the Golden Bears defense should keep this from getting totally out of hand.
Quick Take: The Golden Bears are reeling but this feels like too many points. Cal +28 or better for small potatoes.
Stanford -4 Utah (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – Stanford -1
Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 27.5 Utah 23.5
The Utes are off to a fine 4-0 start, but much like their PAC 12 pals Washington, they do not have a very impressive resume. That will change this weekend if they can beat Stanford at home. The Cardinal are really starting to get the ground game going and have scored 90 points over the past two games. RB Bryce Love is ripping teams to shreds but faces a really tough test this week. Keep in mind Stanford only had 254 yards offense vs San Diego St and the Utes BRING IT in SACK LAKE CITY. Our big worry ? QB Troy Williams is fine but we were REALLY hoping that Tyler Huntley would be good to go. His mobility just adds another dimension.
Quick Take: Lean to Utah at +4 or better. Not sure how good Utah is given their schedule.
Notre Dame -15 North Carolina (62)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -14
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 33.5 North Carolina 18.5
It’s a CALAMITY, yo. The Tar Heels have lost more than a dozen (!) players to season-ending injuries already this season and now get to face the ROCK SOLID Fighting Irish. The good news ? They still have talent, a good HC and some proven STAYING POWER this season with close losses to Cal, LUA-VUH and Duke. QB Chazz Surratt looks like a keeper to us but the running game needs to take some pressure off of him. It’s hard to say what to expect out of a depleted UNC roster but we think they will give max effort. Meanwhile the Irish are one of our favorite teams this season is terms of the quality and ATS value combination. We love QB Wimbush and the rushing attack that is steamrolling everything in its path not named Georgia (a 999 STAR MEGALOCKS SEPT GAME OF THE MILLENNIUM NICKEL CLUB WINNER). We have to believe they will be smart enough to shorten the game and just get out of town. They have a bye coming up and then the big game with USC. It makes sense that Wimbush gets some rest (listed as probable) and we are not sure what to expect from Ian Book at QB.
Quick Take: The under could be a nice small potatoes move.