West Virginia at TCU – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s BIG TIME BIG 12 FOOTBALL on Saturday as West Virginia visits Fort Worth to take on TCU. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and can boast a big road win over Oklahoma St (a 788 STAR MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG LASER LOCK GOLD PLATED WINNER). The Mountaineers are 3-1 with a loss to Virginia Tech but an unblemished (1-0) conference mark. There should be some fireworks, and maybe, just maybe, another BIG 12 UPSET. Let’s dig in.
The Details
TCU -13.5 West Virginia (69.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – TCU -10
Sagarin Ratings – TCU-13.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: TCU 41.5 West Virginia 28
Massey Ratings Projected Score: TCU 33 West Virginia 28
The Match-Up
TCU offense vs West Virginia defense
The Horned Frogs offense has been rolling under the leadership of QB Kenny Hill and are currently ranked #17 in the FBS in total offense with nice balance between the run and the pass. RB Darius Anderson has been great and Kyle Hicks should be good to go this week. When Hill chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he has been spreading the ball around nicely (5 players 100+ receiving yards) which makes them really hard to defend. Of course what we really like is their 3rd down conversion rate of 63% (!!) which is #1 in the FBS. West Virginia has the #107 ranked defense despite playing some pretty rotten teams other than Virginia Tech. They have also struggled getting PENETRATION in 2017. It feels like TCU gets into the mid-30s and likely beyond.
West Virginia offense vs TCU defense
We underestimated the ability (and fit to the offense) of QB Will Grier in the summer and believe the Mountaineers can score on anyone with him at the controls. They have put up 56,59,56 (!) but this is the toughest challenge to date (apologies to VT). The Mountaineers have also shown excellent balance with the run and pass but need to prove they can do it against one the best (THE best ?) defense in the Big 12. TCU is ranked #29 in the FBS in total defense and #1 in sacks per game in the Big 12. Grier will be under duress all game but proved he could TAKE A LICKING and KEEP ON TICKING vs Virginia Tech in week one. We have no doubt they will make plays in the passing game. Will it be enough ? They will have to commit to the run and excel on 3rd downs.
MEGA-MAZING MUNCHIES
West Virginia has played the #139 (!!!) schedule according to the Sagarin ratings in terms of difficulty…..TCU #34…….TCU bagged a nice win over Okie St but they were +3 in turnover margin….Both teams are coming off a bye.
Summary
This is a measuring stick game for West Virginia. They need to be competitive (in our opinion) to be considered contenders in the Big 12. It’s a tough match-up but you gotta show up on the road. TCU is the most balanced team in the conference (other than the Sooners ?) and are going to be a HOT HANDFUL.
TCU has a better resume and the advantage at HC and on defense.
Conclusion
Lean to TCU at -13 or better. Otherwise pass. Small potatoes only.