Auburn at LSU – College Football Predictions
The Game
TIGER BOWL.
It’s SEC West showdown time as Auburn visits LSU on Saturday afternoon. Auburn is sitting at 5-1 with their lone loss coming on the road at the WORLD CHAMPION Clemson Tigers. LSU rebounded nicely last week with a win at Florida after losing at home to the mighty TROY TROJANS. Don’t laugh but LSU has only one SEC loss and can hang in the race with an upset on Saturday. Let’s go !
The Details
AUBURN -6.5 LSU (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -8
Sagarin Ratings – Auburn -9
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Auburn 26.75 LSU 20.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Auburn 21 LSU 14
The Match-Up
Auburn offense vs LSU defense
This is going to be really interesting. The excellent Auburn rushing attack heads on the road to take on the (at times) soft underbelly of the LSU defense. Their overall rush defense numbers are not bad BUT they did give up 285 yards rushing to Mississippi St and 190 yards to Troy RB J Chunn. On four different occasions Auburn bagged 351,263,244 and 326 rushing yards but they also struggled vs Clemson and Mercer. RB K Johnson has over 500 yards rushing and 12 (!) TDs on the ground and will be a handful. Auburn distributes the ball nicely in the passing game with QB J Stidham as 6 players have 130+ receiving yards. The biggest worry ? Auburn is LAST in the SEC in sacks per game allowed and 2nd last in TFL allowed. LSU is #2 in the SEC in sacks per game and are getting a bit healthier. If they can bag a turnover or two and create some negative plays this game could get interesting.
LSU offense vs Auburn defense
LSU is gonna do what they do. Will it be enough ? They have a nice 1-2 punch at RB (D Guice, D Williams) who have combined for 10 rushing TDs. QB D Etling has only thrown 1 INT all season and WR DJ Chark is averaging over 20 yards per reception. LSU has 133+ rushing yards in every game and rolled for 216 at Florida last week whilst Auburn has been human since the Clemson game. It seems to us that LSU can be effective pounding the running game but they need to convert on 3rd downs. Auburn is very good in that regard (#12 FBS) so it’s hard to imagine LSU having sustained success. The LSU OL is a bit worrisome but Auburn only has 5 sacks in the past 4 games after bagging 10 in the first two games of the season. We think Auburn gets the best of LSU for the most part but it may not be as dominating as we expect. <grabs popcorn>
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Last season Auburn held on for an 18-13 victory that spelled the end of the Les Miles era……Two seasons ago Auburn visited LSU and got trucked 45-21 in a 900 STAR MEGALOCKS SMOKESHOW TRIPLE DIMER WINNER.
Summary
Our ratings show a bit of value in taking Auburn but we wonder if LSU might be able to hang around ? Auburn gives up a lot of negative plays and have a negative turnover margin. LSU has played four games without a turnover and just might be able to stay close into the 4th quarter with a grinding rushing attack if they can stay on the field. It comes down to one simple question – can Auburn rip LSU apart with the rushing attack ? Stats tell us that they should but it often works out different than you think. Argh.
Conclusion
No official play yet. Lean to Auburn at -6.5.