Texas vs Oklahoma – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s RED RIVER SHOWDOWN time as the Sooners take on the Longhorns on Saturday afternoon. Every year this is one of the games we REALLY look forward to watching and this edition is no exception.
Oklahoma is coming off a DEBACLE of a home loss to Iowa St – but do not forget – this is the same team that dismantled Ohio St on the road earlier in the campaign. If they run the table (including the B12 Title game) we have no doubt they will be in the playoff. Standing in their way is emerging JABBAWOCKEE Texas who has been up and down and part of plenty of drama already in 2017. They almost beat USC AND they beat the same Iowa St team that was too much for Oklahoma in the second half. Oh, but they lost to Maryland and scraped by Kansas St. What is gonna happen in this year’s battle ? Let’s dig in !
The Details
OKLAHOMA -8 TEXAS (65)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -7
Sagarin Ratings – Oklahoma -10
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 36.5 Texas 28.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Oklahoma 38 Texas 31
The Match-Up
Oklahoma offense vs Texas defense
Please. Spare us another Heisman fiasco. Please. Last year the award was determined by the media and “experts” before October came around. This season ? The Heisman will probably go to “Best NFL RB prospect”. Baker Mayfield is doing it all again this season and does NOT play defense for the Sooners. He has a 15-0 (!) TD to INT ratio and leads the #1 offense in the FBS. The schedule has been pretty light so far other than the Ohio St game so it will be interesting to see if the Sooners can maintain their production throughout the Big 12 schedule. They feature two RBs with 370 rushing yards (T Sermon, A Adams) and five players with 230+ receiving yards. The offensive line is excellent and we see no reason why Oklahoma can’t easily get into the 30s. The Longhorns’ defense has been up and down this season and we did not enjoy the 2nd quarter implosion vs Kansas St last weekend. Texas is tied for last in the Big 12 in TFL per game and we have a hard time seeing them creating many negative plays on Saturday.
Texas offense vs Oklahoma defense
QB Sam Ehlinger was phenomenal last week passing for 380 yards and rushing for 107 vs a very good Kansas St defense. Can a true freshman win this YUUUUGE game ? Well, the talent is certainly there, that is for sure. The WR corps is coming along nicely with Collin Johnson (485 yards, 19 per grab) and Reggie “HM” emerging with 12 receptions last week. HC Tom Herman has these guys rolling and it appears that our preseason assessment may have been correct. Too bad we have laid off betting on these guys so far. Argh. The bad news for Oklahoma is that their pass defense appears to be HORRID and Ehlinger should be able to MATRICULATE at will down the field. We do not think that Texas can be as balanced on offense as the Sooners, but if they shred Oklahoma with the pass, it may not matter. The Longhorns are near the bottom of the Big 12 when it comes to allowing negative plays but Oklahoma’s defense does not concern us very much. Texas should also get into the 30s if they do not barf all over themselves with turnovers.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Texas has covered the last FOUR games vs the Sooners all as double-digit underdogs and TWO as MEGALOCKS 887 STAR MAX UNIT BOMB TOUT SCUM NICKEL CLUB winners.
Summary
We are at a crossroads. Texas appears to be getting line value (according to our numbers) AND have recent series history in their favor. The bad news ? It’s hard to take a freshman QB vs Mayfield in a game where the spread is less than double digits. Back to the Texas side ? The Longhorns have the better defense and HC. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Conclusion
Still looking at this one. At double digits we would play the Longhorns BUT the Oklahoma loss to Iowa St cost us about 3-4 points in our estimation. In our view the best way to go is play the TT over on whichever team you feel will get the W. The spread looks pretty much bang on and the total also looks sharp.