Washington at Arizona St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Things are about to get real for the Huskies. They have coasted through a really easy schedule but are 6-0 and appear fresh and ready to make another run at the PAC 12 Title. Arizona St has been competitive in every game but can still only boast a record of 2-3. All three of the losses, however, were understandable (San Diego St, Texas Tech, Stanford). Can the Sun Devils stay competitive in this one ? Let’s dig in.
The Details
WASHINGTON -17.5 ARIZONA ST (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Washington -14
Sagarin Ratings – Washington -18
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington 37 Arizona St 19.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Washington 41 Arizona St 21
The Match-Up
Washington offense vs Arizona St defense
The offense has been rolling so far and QB Jake Browning has completed 70% of his passes with a fine 14-3 TD to INT ratio. RB Myles Gaskin in well on his way to a another 1,000 yard season and the WR group is deep and talented. Even with the easy early schedule it is hard to deny that the Huskies are dangerous and balanced on offense. And the Arizona St defense ? YUCK. Pretty much horrid across the board. #118 in the FBS in total defense. #94 vs the run. #116 in pass efficiency defense (65% completions; 14 TD 2 INT). They are also dead last in the PAC 12 in yards per play allowed. It feels like the Huskies get into the 40s.
Arizona St offense vs Washington defense
QB Manny Wilkins has been very efficient this season (8-2 TD to INT ratio) and has not had much help from the running game. They are in the bottom half of the PAC 12 in rushing yards and their top two RBs (K Ballage, D Richard) are only averaging 4.1 and 3.3 yards per carry. Washington has allowed 14,7,16,10,7,7 in six games which is pretty impressive regardless of the competition. In fact Washington allowed less than 20 points per game in 2015 and 2016 so we feel that this D is legit despite all of the talent lost in the NFL draft. Arizona St is gonna move the ball through the air but are going to be hard pressed to do consistent damage unless they can find some kind of running game.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Amaze your local bartender with this one…..According to the Sagarin ratings Washington has played the easiest schedule of any of their top 30 teams…..The Huskies beat Arizona St last season at home 44-18 but lost in 2015 on the road 27-17…..This is Washington’s 3rd road game in four weeks.
Summary
There is some perceived value in the Sun Devils according to our numbers but that defense really has us concerned. The Huskies have been starting slow most of the season so maybe just maybe the Sun Devils hang around early AND hang around late.
Conclusion
Lean to Arizona St +17.5 for small potatoes. Better play may be the first half.