Northern Illinois at Buffalo – College Football Predictions
The Game
The Huskies got their feet wet in MACtion play last week beating Kent St in some horrible weather conditions (a 777 STAR MAX UNIT STEAM BOMB loser) and now travel to Buffalo to take on the JUGGERNAUT Bulls. They are playing solid football but have to be reeling after the 7 (!!) OVERTIME loss to Western Michigan last Saturday. This just might be a tougher game that the Huskies were planning on. Let’s dive in.
The Details
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4.5 BUFFALO (47.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Northern Illinois -7
Sagarin Ratings – Northern Illinois -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Northern Illinois 26 Buffalo 21.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Northern Illinois 31 Buffalo 24
The Match-Up
Northern Illinois offense vs Buffalo defense
QB Daniel Santacaterina apparently had trouble with the weather conditions according to MEGALOCKS MAC WEATHER INSIDERS and NIU decided to go with dual threat QB Marcus Childers most of the way vs Kent St. The weather looks good for this weekend’s contest and we expect to see BOTH of these men in action. Santa is still the more dangerous passer but Childers gives the defense a different look and more potential problems to think about. RB Jordan Huff has been really good this season and has over 400 yards rushing in five games this season. We expect him to fly over 1,000 yards once MAC play gets into gear. They have not been explosive in the passing game but showed some flashes of brilliance on the road vs San Diego St. Even after adjusting for the 7 overtime fiasco last week and a game vs Army the Bulls have shown a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run. FAU ran for 262 at 7 yards a pop and even Colgate ran for 167. Northern Illinois ran for over 300 yards in last season’s match-up and the Bulls have to find a way to slow the ground attack to have a shot in this game. The Bulls have also struggled getting PENETRATION this season ranking 7th in the MAC in sacks per game and 9th in TFL.
Buffalo offense vs Northern Illinois defense
One of the biggest secrets in all of college football just might be the quality of the Bulls offensive line. We knew it would be good but they have been lights out in 2017 particularly in pass protection (5 sacks allowed in 180 attempts). The are #1 in the MAC in sacks allowed per game and in TFL allowed per game. Northern Illinois brings a weapon in DE Sutton Smith to town and he has tallied 7 (!) sacks and 13 TFL. “Backup” QB Drew Anderson has been fantastic in relief of the injured Tyree Jackson (listed as Q this week) and will have to continue getting rid of the ball quickly and letting his REALLY underrated WR group make some plays. They just finishing ripping Western Michigan to pieces. Here is the issue. Northern Illinois boasts the #1 pass efficiency defense in the MAC and have only allowed 51% completions whilst picking off 9 passes. The run defense has also been excellent allowing only 2.5 yards per carry (!) despite playing BC, Nebraska and San Diego St (!!). NIU is #1 (sorry ROLL TIDE) in the FBS in yards per play allowed (< 4) and are going to make things difficult for the Bulls.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Northern Illinois is on a 14-6-1 ATS run in their past 21 conference games…….The Huskies have not allowed a play over 36 yards all season.
Summary
It’s back to the well time for us backing the Huskies. They played a sloppy game last week on offense but a lot of that can be attributed to the weather. The defense is without question the best in the MAC particularly against the pass. Buffalo is coming off a 7-OT game in which they spilled their guts on the field. You know we are high on them and will look to play on them in future weeks. This just seems like a tough spot and match-up facing an elite secondary.
Conclusion
Official play: Northern Illinois -4.5 -110. Would play up to -6.5.