Texas A&M at Florida – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s another tough test for the Gators. They have been through the MEAT GRINDER so far this season as we have mentioned more than once. Tough schedule, hurricanes and dramatic finishes. Oh, and by last count, they are down to 7 scholarship players after suspensions and injuries are accounted for. But they have been TOUGH and battled all year. A second SEC loss would put them in a tough spot as they would need to beat Georgia and get some help. Texas A&M is a blown 34 point lead away from being 5-1 with their only loss being to ROLL TIDE last week. What is gonna happen in the SWAMP Saturday night ? Let’s dig in, yo.
The Details
FLORIDA -3 TEXAS A&M (52)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
Sagarin Ratings – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida 27.5 Texas A&M 24.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Florida 27 Texas A&M 24
The Match-Up
Florida offense vs Texas A&M defense
It’s difficult to be too critical of the Gators’ offense (in our view) simply due to the injuries and suspensions that have taken their toll. Just like LSU was not the worst team ever last week – Florida is not as bad as you think on offense. The still have a pretty good running game led by true freshman Malik Davis and Lamical Perine, and while the Texas A&M run defense has been pretty good, they were hit for over 200 yards by Arkansas and ROLL TIDE. The Gators should be able to do some work if they stay committed to the run game. The problem ? Florida does not have much of a passing game at ALL with the absence of WR Antonio Callaway and the injury to WR Tyrie Cleveland (listed as Q this week). Texas A&M is #1 in the SEC in both sacks per game and TFL per game (sorry ROLL TIDE) while also featuring a solid run defense as noted above. It seems to us that the Gators are going to have trouble moving the ball and will need help with some short fields.
Texas A&M offense vs Florida defense
Don’t look now but the Aggies have a really good QB in true freshman Kellen Mond. After a bit of a slow start getting used to the speed of the game he has done well vs ROLL TIDE (65% completions, 8.2 yards per attempt, 1 TD 1 INT) and S Carolina (70% completions). He also threw for over 300 yards vs ULL. The mobility is also there but Texas A&M prefers to do their damage on the ground with a deep stable of running backs led by T Williams and K Ford (12 rushing TDs combined). Florida yielded over 200 yards rushing to Michigan and LSU and the Vols put up 183. The Aggies have put up 179+ in each contest other than the game vs ROLL TIDE. The WR group is weaker than we are used to seeing in terms of having a devastating gamebreaker BUT Christian Kirk is very reliable and a great return man as well. The bad news ? Florida is also very good at getting PENETRATION and the Aggies are 13th in sacks per game allowed in the SEC and LAST (!) in TFL allowed. We DO like the fact that they allowed 10 sacks in the first two games and just 7 in the past five contests (4 vs ROLL TIDE). This offense has some dangerous weapons and will eventually crack some big ones.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Florida is (-2) in turnover margin whilst the Aggies are +6……Florida as not created a turnover since their week 2 win over Tennessee.
Summary
The better team is Texas A&M. They have won the yardage battle (+257) vs their competition this season while the Gators have been outgained by 130 yards. They have both faced similarly tough schedules with the Gators’ being a bit more challenging overall. We just feel that this Aggies team is fresher, more confident and more talented given the lack of depth right now on the Florida roster.
Official Play
Texas A&M +3 -106. Play down to +1.5
(sent out Monday October 9 3:59 pm EST)