Week 7 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
Let’s go !!
ROLL TIDE -30 Arkansas (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -30
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 42.5 Arkansas 12.5
ROLL TIDE.
Alabama continued their roll last week with a tougher-than-expected road win over the scrappy Texas A&M Aggies. With Tennessee on deck it certainly appears that ROLL TIDE will coast into November with an undefeated record. #HotTake. The #1 run defense in the FBS (#5 overall) should be able to make things very ugly for the Razorbacks who got SPANKED on the road last week at South Carolina (a 888 STAR MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG HAMMER LOCK LOSER) whilst giving up three defensive TDs. QB Austin Allen is a loose cannon, but the only shot the Razorbacks have to do much against ROLL TIDE, and he is listed as questionable as we go to press. Back-up Cole Kelley may be the dude of the future but getting your first game action vs ROLL TIDE will probably not go well. This certainly feels like a big time smack down. Arkansas can only boast wins over Florida A&M and New Mexico St.
ROLL TIDE pasted Vandy 59-0 and Ole Miss 66-3. They have two wins over the Hogs at 52-0 in the past five seasons. Hogs QB is either a) Allen with a bad shoulder or b) a dude making his first start.
Official play: ROLL TIDE -31. (sent out 7:52 pm EST October 12) (play up to -34)
Georgia -30.5 Missouri (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -27
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 43.5 Missouri 13
That was quite the display vs Vanderbilt. 423 rushing yards (!) with a combination of a loaded NFL-caliber backfield and talented offensive line just pulverizing the Commodores on the ground. The Bulldogs have won their past three games by a combined score of 127-17 and now get Missouri and their horrid defense coming to town. The Tigers have allowed 31+ in every game this season and have the #111 ranked defense in the FBS and #121 stop unit on 3rd downs. Oh, and they like to give the ball away (#127 turnover margin). The good news ? The offense really clicked last week against a decent Kentucky defense and they will be able to make some plays vs the excellent Bulldogs defense. They are balanced (unlike Vandy) and will give Georgia more to think about than just the pass. The question becomes – how many points can they score if Georgia holds the ball for 53 minutes ? Georgia has a bye next week and then the big game with Florida on October 28th.
Quick Take: Slight lean to Missouri at +30.5 if you need to have action on this one. The Tigers are going to get some licks in on offense. We just aren’t sure how many times they will get the ball as Georgia should be able to move at will running the ball and controlling the clock.
Mississippi St -22.5 BYU (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 34.5 BYU 12
BYU is just beyond bad right now on offense and it does not seem to matter who plays QB. They have the #127 (!!) offense in the FBS whilst being equally inept running the football (#120) and MATRICULATING in the passing game (#116). They have played some tough defenses but it really has been a horror show. QB Tanner Mangum was back last week and played decently vs Boise St but there are just no weapons in the passing game and no game changers at RB. The Bulldogs are off a bye, and previous to that, they lost games to Top 10 quality teams (Georgia, Auburn) by a combined score of 80-13. BYU had a really tough time with mobile JUGGERNAUT QB Tyler Huntley (Utah) and they are going to have big time problems defending QB Nick Fitzgerald. Mini-revenge situation as BYU beat the Bulldogs in OT last year in Provo. Our primary concerns in backing Mississippi St would be the motivation (SEC play on deck) and the scrappy BYU defense that could help them hang around if the offense doesn’t barf all over itself for four quarters.
Quick Take: It has to be Mississippi St or nothing. Amirite ? Gun to the head selection would be to lay the lumber with the Bulldogs at -22.5. Keep an eye on the QB news coming out of the BYU camp even though they have proven to be less than honest with their injury reports.
Tennessee -2.5 S Carolina (49)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -1
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 25.75 S Carolina 23.25
This just might be the toughest game on the card to handicap. Both teams are tough reads at this point. What can you say about South Carolina ? At some point you have to realize that they make plays when they have to and just WIN BABY. They sit at 4-2 right now, and don’t laugh, but still have games with Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. <grabs poporn> You would think that MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB MEMBERS are happy about holding a season-win total over 5.5 with a game with Wofford still on the docket BUT you never wanna take anything for granted in this business. Tennessee’s run defense is ranked #123 in the FBS but playing Georgia Tech and Georgia did not help AND South Carolina has trouble running the football. Gamecocks QB Jake Bentley and the opportunistic defense (3 TDs vs Hogs last week) should be the deciding factor. Tennessee is coming off a bye after getting destroyed by Georgia. They have really been hurt by injuries and it’s hard to know what to expect this week.
Quick Take: Slight lean to S Carolina for small potatoes. Wait for +3 if you can get it. If the line starts dropping take the ML.
Ole Miss -3 Vanderbilt (57)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -1
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 30 Vanderbilt 27
No offense to the Commodores but this is a YUUUUGE step down in class for the Rebels after playing ROLL TIDE and Auburn the past two weeks. They gave up 110 points and almost 1200 yards of offense in those two games and will be quite pleased to be done with those two opponents. QB Shea Patterson is a keeper and should be able to make things happen against a struggling Vanderbilt defense. The bad news ? Georgia steamrolled the Commodores for over 400 yards on the ground but Ole Miss is not a good rushing team. Meanwhile Vanderbilt has played four virtual MEAT GRINDERS in a row (Kansas St, ROLL TIDE, Gators, Georgia) and have be battered and bruised. Their good news ? If they can slither out of town with a win they can head into the bye week at 4-3 and feeling pretty good. The Commodores have not been able to run a lick this season but we like QB Kyle Shurmur quite a bit. Amaze your ANNOYING CUBICLE TEAMMATE at work with this gem…..Vanderbilt allowed 13 points in their first three games. Their last three ? 142.
Quick Take: Tough game to read. Gonna let things simmer in our minds for a day or so.
Ohio St -24 Nebraska (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -20
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 40 Nebraska 16
The Buckeyes are crushing everything in their path right now and take the show on the road to Lincoln on Saturday. The running game has been devastating and QB JT Barrett is doing what needs to be done. The defense has only allowed 278,264,209,66 (!) yards in the past four contests and should not have too much trouble with the inconsistent Corn attack. Nebraska was tied with Wisconsin at one point 17-17 but just had no answer for the Badger run game as they yielded 353 rushing yards. That is bad news with Ohio St coming to town. The Huskers should be able to make some plays in the passing game, but overall, this feels like a really tough match-up.
Quick Take: No play. This is a lot of chalk to eat in this spot but not gonna step in front of the Ohio St train this week.
Illinois -2.5 Rutgers (48)………..MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -3
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 25.25 Rutgers 22.75
It’s Big 10 barnburner time as Rutgers visits Illinois on Saturday afternoon. Illinois looked pretty good vs Iowa last week despite losing 45-16. They fell apart in the second half but outgained the Hawkeyes 446-441 whilst rushing and passing for 200+ yards. The defense has started to disappoint and overall the Illini have allowed 47,28,45 the past three games. Rutgers only has one win so far this (Morgan St) and have to believe this is their best shot to get a Big 10 win. And they are off a bye. And they have the better defense. The QB situation is still IN FLUX as we go to press with a three-way race ongoing for the starting job. Yuck. Good news for Rutgers ? WR Janarion Grant is good to go. Bad news ? Injuries in the secondary have forced them to move WR J Harris to the secondary. Thanks to MEGALOCKS RUTGERS MOB GUYS INSIDERS for that gem.
Quick Take: This feels like a toss-up. Shocker. Gun to the head we would actually take Rutgers if the line moves to +3, +3.5. Edge goes to the defense in a game like this regardless of the filth at QB for the Scarlet Knights.
Northwestern -3 Maryland (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -4
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 26.5 Maryland 23.5
Here are a couple of Big 10 teams scratching and clawing their way to bowl eligibility. Northwestern sits at a disappointing 2-3 and are already out of the divisional race by virtue of their loss to Wisconsin. They have not been able to get star RB Justin Jackson rolling this season and are LAST in the Big 10 in rushing offense. The run defense has been great the past two weeks holding Penn St and Wisconsin in check (!) and that is good news taking on a Maryland team that makes its living on the ground. 3rd string QB Max “B” is starting to get settled in and the run defense has actually been pretty decent. Maryland should find a way to win the rushing battle and have a great shot to pull the upset and bag their 4th win for HC DJ Durkin. The Cats just don’t look right to us.
Quick Take: Slight leanage to FEAR THE TURTLE at +3 or better. We see some +3.5 popping up you may be able to get +4 by kickoff.
Michigan St -4.5 Minnesota (40.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 22.5 Minnesota 18
Hail, Sparty.
Michigan St gutted out a win over Michigan last Saturday night and now head to Minnesota to face the Gophers. Sparty has only allowed more than 14 (!) once all season and that was a game in which they had a 496-355 yardage edge but were huge losers in the turnover battle (Notre Dame) (555 STAR MEGALOCKS NICKEL DIME CLUB WINNER). All the sudden Michigan St has become a player in the division but still have tough games ahead (Penn St, Ohio St). Who knows ? They have shocked the world before. The Gophers’ defense is statistically solid but they have not played great competition as of yet. We are a bit skeptical to be honest and are not crazy about the QB play. It’s not an ideal spot for Michigan St off the big win but they should be able to gut out another win. The defense is ranked #4 in the FBS.
Quick Take: No official play. Strong lean to Michigan St -4.5.
Wisconsin -15.5 Purdue (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -17
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 33.5 Purdue 18
Wisconsin is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE at the moment destroying all comers. Here is the thing tho, yo. They have wins over Utah St, FAU, BYU, Northwestern and Corn. That is a semi-collection of STIFFS and maybe just maybe Purdue is the best team they have faced all season. Our power ratings give the Badgers a big edge based on their running game and defense. And don’t forget they have been sluggish to start games pretty much all season. Purdue hit the season win total over (congrats MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUM RAT BASTARD FUTURES CLUB) in record time but take a big step up in class on Saturday. It’s possible they hang around but the Badgers are a tough match-up for pretty much anyone.
Quick Take: Lean to CHEESE -15.5 or better. Would play up to -16.5 for small potatoes. Gonna sit in the weeds and look to play on Purdue in future weeks.
Troy -16.5 South Alabama (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -16
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 33 South Alabama 16.5
It’s Wednesday night FUN BELT action as Troy battles South Alabama. Both teams are off a bye and well rested for the BATTLE FOR THE BELT. The Trojans have faced some TOUGH COOKIES so far with a road trip to Boise (24-13 loss), a road trip to the JUGGERNAUT New Mexico St Aggies and a WIN in Baton Rouge vs LSU. The Jaguars are sitting at 1-4 after a disappointing home loss to the wacky Idaho Vandals and are in desperate need of wins if they want to slither into bowl season. They started the season with games vs Ole Miss and Oklahoma St so you need to take their year-to-date offensive and defensive stats with a grain of salt. QB Dallas Davis is ready to go but either he or “backup” Cole Garvin will have a tough time with a rock solid Troy defense. The Jags have not exceeded 400 yards of offense vs any FBS opponents in 2017.
Quick Take: Even off the big win it seems like Troy is the play. The Jaguars can jump up and bite you when you least expect it and this is a rivalry game so tread lightly. Won’t even dial up small potatoes for this one.
Louisiana -14 Texas St (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -14
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 35 Texas St 21
Ok FUN BELT fans. We have two horrible defenses getting together on Thursday night when Texas St goes on the road to take on the Ragin Cajuns. The Bobcats are getting better but are still fairly rotten. They have a record of 1-5 with their only win coming against FCS opponent Houston Baptist. They have also allowed 44+ in each of their past three games. Louisiana’s defense ranks highly on the STINK O METER (#124 FBS) and have had trouble stopping the run and the pass. That is a bad combination. The offense has been really good (and balanced) and they should have no problem getting into the mid-30s. But will they cover ? They also have a YUUUGE game with rival Arkansas St next week.
Quick Take: Lean to the over 56 for small potatoes.
Clemson -22.5 Syracuse (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -18
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 39.5 Syracuse 17
The Tigers continue on their DATE WITH DESTINY and a third straight ACC Title when they travel to Syracuse on Friday night. The defense has been phenomenal and QB Kelly Bryant has led the team to convincing wins in every game other than the Auburn tilt. Our ACC INSIDERS tell us he is good to go this week (injury report – probable) and that is a relief to Clemson fans. The last two visits to Syracuse were a tight one (37-27 win as 30 point favorites) and a 49-14 blowout. The problem ? This Orange squad is playing decent football and have already covered the number in road games vs LSU and NC State. We are big fans of QB Eric Dungey and think they can do enough to cover. The defense has also been better than expected (#46 FBS; #6 3rd down defense).
Quick Take: Lean to Syracuse +22.5. Would play down to +21 for small potatoes.
Washington St -14.5 California (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -17
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 34.5 California 20
COOOOOOOOOGS.
Don’t look now but Washington St is on a ROLL and could very well end up playing Washington in the Apple Cup as an UNDEFEATED JUGGERNAUT. They escaped with close wins over Boise St and USC, but at the end of the day, what champion doesn’t have at least one close call ? That’s football, yo. QB Luke Falk continues to dominate and the defense is rock solid. How can Cal win this game ? Yikes. It sure doesn’t look good. They have started into a tailspin, and in particular, the offense is getting sketchy QB play to go along with no ability to run the football. Cal has bagged three wins so far but this does not appear to be the spot where they get #4.
Quick Take: Strong lean to Washington St -14.5. Would play up to -16.5 for small potatoes.
Florida St -7 Duke (44)………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 25.5 Duke 18.5
This is one of the toughest games on the board on our humble opinion. The Seminoles have played a brutal schedule and most of it without their starting QB. They should have (?) beat our beloved Canes last week if not for a late TD drive and have the better defense and overall talent. The question becomes – now that they are destined for a crappy bowl game – where is their motivation level ? And Duke would still LOVE to bag a win over Florida St. The Dukies may not be as good as we thought only managing 255 yards vs Virginia last week whilst the defense is a notch below what we had hoped to see. We don’t think looking at stats or trends will help. You need to look at the motivation for Florida St and we have a hard time getting a read on that handicapping factor.
Quick Take: Really tough call. Gun to the head selection is Duke at +7.
Miami -6 Georgia Tech (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami -6
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 29.5 Georgia Tech 23.5
The Hurricanes are fresh off the big win vs the Noles and now come home to face the dangerous Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday afternoon. Miami is sitting at 4-0 with wins over some decent teams (Toledo, Duke, Florida St) whilst the Jackets are 3-1 and fresh off a bye. Georgia Tech looks really good statistically but have only beat Jacksonville St, Pitt and UNC. Not exactly a resume to be proud of but wins are wins, baby. Can Miami get ready to face the GT option in a week ? The good news is that they have some good recent history vs the Jackets and HC Richt is also familiar with how to defend these guys. The speed on defense will help but they have displayed a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run this season. And no Mark Walton ? Hmmmm.
Quick Take: Lean to Georgia Tech +6.
San Diego St -7 Boise St (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -7
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 26 Boise St 19
Who can stop the train ? The Aztecs have wins over Stanford and Arizona St and have flat out refused to have a letdown. There are only a couple of landmines left on the schedule and this game is one of them. Star RB R Penny (993 yds ! rushing !) and the efficient passing game is going to have a tough time vs an underrated Boise St defense (#26 FBS, #18 vs run). The Broncos’ offense has been a yuuuuge disappointment (#105) with a bad running game and allowing too many negative plays (2nd last in MW in sacks allowed and TFL allowed). The Aztecs defense is solid and well coached so it feels like Boise is going to need to win the turnover battle and get some short fields to win and/or cover this game. On thing to keep in mind is Boise had a 3 TD lead at Washington St and held the tough New Mexico offense to just 14 points.
Quick Take: The line and total looks about right. Gun to the head selection is Boise plus the points.
TCU -6 Kansas St (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – TCU -6
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 28 Kansas St 22
The drama in the Big 12 continues to get more INTENSE every week. The Oklahoma loss to Iowa St kept a lot of teams in the mix. The “#1” ? right now might be TCU. They are undefeated and have wins over Okie St and West Virginia on their resume. Kansas St is coming off a disappointing OT loss to Texas and will be without starting QB Jesse Ertz. Alex Delton has some nice mobility but we are not sure about his ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game AND his ability to handle high pressure situations (due to his inexperience). The Wildcats are scrappy. And catching almost a TD.
Quick Take: Line looks about right to us. Gun to the head would go with the under 50 if you need action on the game.
West Virginia -3.5 Texas Tech (74.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -4
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 39 Texas Tech 35.5
Get cho popcone !
This is one of more intriguing games of the weekend as Texas Tech visits Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers. It’s still hard to get a handle on the quality of this West Virginia team as they have tough losses to good teams (TCU, Virginia Tech) and wins over patsies East Carolina, Delaware St and Kansas. And the offense is SIZZLING under the guidance of QB Will Grier. We worry about the defense (#105 FBS) that has to face the high-octane Red Raiders offense on Saturday. Texas Tech has the usual great passing attack and they run it just enough to keep you honest. They have also been decent vs the run (!) compared to recent seasons AND they have been CREATING HAVOC creating turnovers (#5 FBS turnover margin; T7 turnovers forced). Morgantown is a tough place for opposing teams to get the offense going. Tough call.
Quick Take: It’s a pretty short price for the Mountaineers. Think the best play may be Texas Tech team total under.
Stanford -10 Oregon (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – Stanford -9
Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 33 Oregon 23
This is always a game we look forward to watching. Big time contrast in styles, yo. Oregon is still without starting QB J Herbert which really hurts but they DO get back #2 QB T Alie for this one. RB R Freeman is well on his way to 1,000 yards (654) and they have 7 (!) players with 136+ receiving yards. The defense has also been a LOT better than the past two seasons’ GREASE FIRES. Stanford has bounced back nicely off losses to USC and San Diego St and rattled off three wins in a row. Of course you know by now the story is JUGGERNAUT RB Bryce Love who has already ran for 1240 (!) yards this season at an impossible 10.5 (!) yards per carry. The passing game is doing enough but we do worry about the defense that is very “un-Stanford-like”. Like.
Quick Take: Strong lean to the over 56.
USC -13 Utah (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – USC -11
Vegas Implied Score – USC 33 Utah 20
It’s another edition of FLAKY vs RELIABLE as the Trojans battle Utah on Saturday night. USC is sitting at 5-1 with the only loss coming to the UPSTART Washington St Cougars. Another PAC 12 loss would not kill them in a relatively average-looking division BUT it will destroy any shot to make the playoff. Meanwhile Utah keeps plugging along with good defense and special teams but will be without dynamic QB Tyler Huntley again this week. The offense is going to have problems moving the ball even against a USC defense missing a lot of guys due to injury. QB Sam Darnold is gonna have to start making less mistakes (9 INT) for the Trojans to make a run at the PAC 12 title not to mention cover in this game. TREND GUY will like the stats pointing to the under.
Quick Take: Lean to the Utes +13 and under 53 for small potatoes.
Memphis -3 Navy (71)………..MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -1
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 37 Navy 34
ANCHORS AWEIGH !
Navy has blasted off to a 5-0 start are a moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE. It took a bit of a miracle to win late vs Air Force last week but wins are wins, baby. They bad news ? Now the schedule gets a lot tougher starting with a Memphis team that is starting to get its groove back after pasting UConn for 70 points last week. The Tigers only loss has come at the hands of the unstoppable UCF Knights and they feel like an emerging force despite their stinky defense. We feel this game will be exactly as Vegas expects. High-scoring. Back and forth. Either team can win.
Quick Take: Our best advice is to take the team total over of whichever team you feel will cover against the spread. That way you take all the stress over a close game that could go either way. The safest play seems to be Memphis TT over given the nature of their offense and Navy is off a big rivalry win over Air Force.
Louisville -21.5 Boston College (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -18
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 39 Boston College 17.5
This is a tough spot for the Cardinals after losing their 2nd ACC game last week on the road vs NC State. Last season they folded like a card table after the loss to Houston but hopefully they can SUCK IT UP and continue to play hard. It’s a guess if that will happen, particularly when your head coach has probably had 14 job interviews in the past two weeks. Lamar Jackson has been carrying the team on his back even more so than last season. The question becomes – can BC MATRICULATE at all in the passing game to take advantage of one of the worst pass defenses in the Power 5 ? BC needs to cobble together four more wins to become bowl eligible, and despite being a yuuuuge dog in this one we expect their best effort. Keep in mind Clemson and BC were tied 7-7 in the 3rd Q and the Eagles have wins over decent MAC squads NIU and C Michigan so they have the MINERALS to stay within the number.
Quick Take: Lean to Boston College +21.5 for small potatoes.