Louisville at Florida St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go ! It’s revenge time for Florida St as they will try and avenge the beating that Louisville laid on them last year. Both teams are going through troubled times in 2017 but we should expect to see an intense and entertaining game on Saturday. Let’s goooo !
The Details
FLORIDA ST -7 LOUISVILLE (59)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida St -8
Sagarin Ratings – Florida St -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida St 33 Louisville 26
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Florida St 35 Louisville 28
The Match-Up
Florida St offense vs Louisville defense
Hopefully Florida St has found an identity to work with for the remainder of the season. The running game has come alive with a great 1-2 punch (C Akers, J Patrick) leading the way towards two straight games where the Noles bagged 200+ rushing yards. Freshman QB J Blackman has made some mistakes but has looked pretty good to us playing a difficult schedule and he was a late Miami miracle TD away from leading them to a yuuuuuge win. We would like to think that the WR group will continue to develop more chemistry with Blackman as the season rolls along, but to be honest, the key to this game is to keep pounding the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Louisville defense which started the season out bad and has gotten worse every week. They allowed over 360 (!) yards rushing to BC last week, and overall, have allowed almost 1,100 yards combined in the past two games. It seems to us that the Noles can win this game by simply pounding the run game and working play-action off of that strategy. Their OL has been horrible in terms of allowing negative plays (sacks, TFL) so they need to stay out of obvious passing situations as much as possible.
Louisville offense vs Florida St defense
Lamar. What a player. He has over 2,300 (!!) yards passing and 16 TDs whilst rushing for almost 700 yards and 10 TDs in his spare time. He has been hands-down the best player in college football this season carrying the team on his back. The problem ? Their RB depth has been decimated by injuries and only R Bonnafon is left standing. The WR group is phenomenal and we have no doubt Jackson is gonna make some big plays in the passing game against a disappointing Florida St secondary. The Noles have also struggled getting PENETRATION so it will be interesting to see what their strategy is to contain the QB.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
If you believe in the REVENGE ANGLE this is a beauty…..The Cards’ season is going down the toilet and the Noles were spanked last season by LUA-VUH to the tune of 63-20.
Summary
Louisville games are always tricky to handicap. Lamar Jackson plays at an insane level that cannot be fully accounted for when trying to figure out what might happen. We feel really good about the potential for Florida St to do serious damage on the ground and think that this Louisville defense is in for a long day provided the Noles don’t crap all over themselves with penalties and turnovers.
Conclusion
Strong lean Florida St -7. This one may or may not make the final card. Stay tuned.