Memphis at Houston – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
We should be in for a treat on Thursday night when Memphis visits Houston. Both teams are very talented and exciting AND it is a yuuuuuge game in the competitive West division of the American Athletic Conference. Memphis has a record of 5-1 with their only loss coming to the EMERGING JABBAWOCKEE UCF Knights. Houston is sitting at 4-2 but have lost two of their last four games including a spanking last week at the hands of Tulsa. Can they rebound ? Let’s dig in !
The Details
HOUSTON -3 MEMPHIS (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
Sagarin Ratings – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Houston 32 Memphis 29
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Houston 31 Memphis 24
The Match-Up
Houston offense vs Memphis defense
This is a decent offense but not as explosive as the version of the past couple of seasons. The Cougars have 9 TDs and 9 INTs whilst MATRICULATING in the passing game and both K Postma and K Allen have had trouble with interceptions. The running game has been “ok” and the Cougars have talented WRs but do not stretch the field as much as as you would hope. L Bonner is only averaging 9.3 yds per catch (!) and S Dunbar just 11.6. At some point 11,000 bubble screens is just not going to work. Memphis has lost over half a dozen projected starters on defense but are getting better as the season moves along. They are certainly not “elite” but are +7 in turnover margin and #4 in the conference in TFL/game. They just finishing allowed a measly 334 yards to Navy and are playing with a lot of confidence. Houston is going to get their yards but we don’t see them shredding Memphis to pieces. We look for 24-31 points.
Memphis offense vs Houston defense
Welcome to the GOODIE ROOM. QB Riley Ferguson is really starting to tally the stats (19-5 TD to INT ratio) and it does not hurt having a loaded backfield and one the BEST WRs in college football (Anthony Miller) at your disposal. Miller had 14 TD receptions and over 1,400 yards receiving last season and has already booked 9 TDs in 2017. D Henderson and P Taylor are a great RB combo and Tulsa just lit up Houston for almost 300 (!) yards on the ground despite having no threat of a passing game. Houston’s defense has been a disappointment so far as they are ranked #83 in the FBS after really fine performances in 2016 and 2015. Houston was shredded by Texas Tech and SMU through the air and appear to be in tough this week vs a team with a stud QB and a good rushing attack. The good news ? Houston is #1 in the AAC with only 5 TD passes allowed on the season.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
The last three meetings between these teams have been close affairs…..48-44 Memphis…..35-34 Houston…..28-24 Houston……Looking for an X-Factor ?? Memphis JUGGERNAUT return man Tony Pollard has 4 (!) kickoff return TDs over the past season and a half including two this season.
Summary
Memphis has the more explosive skill position players AND are the more hungry team. We also prefer their HC, the ability to create turnovers AND their special teams. Houston is coming off a disappointing game vs Tulsa, and while you can say there is “line value”, we look at it as maybe just maybe they are not “that good”. Houston can certainly win the game but we are going to grab some points with what we perceive to be the better team. Texas A&M and Wyoming did it for us last week. <grabs popcorn>
Official Play
Memphis +3 -106. Play down to +1.5.