Week 8 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
Let’s go !!
ROLL TIDE -34 Tennessee (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -33
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 42 Tennessee 8
ROLL TIDE.
Alabama continued their winning ways with an easy win over Arkansas last Saturday. ROLL TIDE is in the top 10 in yards per play offense and defense and also lead the SEC in turnover margin (+11). That is a pretty good recipe, yo. They are continuously working on the balance on offense while cranking up the pass rush on defense (14 sacks last 3 games). The question becomes – can Tennessee do enough to stay within 5 TDs ? Well you need to be careful, because as we noted a few weeks ago, LSU was not the worst team in history and how the Vols are being put in that category. Of course the difference is Tennessee is now going with a true freshman QB (!) and are missing a lot of key players AND have a HC on the extra-hot seat.
Quick Take: Gonna steer clear of this one. It feels like ROLL TIDE or nothing but it is hard to ask ROLL TIDE to keep kicking teeth in especially when they have their bye week coming up and surely just want the game to be over as soon as possible. Pass for now.
Auburn -13.5 Arkansas (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -11
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 34 Arkansas 20.5
Whoa. How about blowing a 20-0 lead when you supposedly have the best running game of all time AND are playing against the worst team of all time (LSU) and the worst head coach of all time ? (sources – ESPN, Heisman voters, “Selection Committee”)
Auburn now has a pair of losses and are realistically shot for a playoff bid unless they can run the table (including a win over ROLL TIDE) and bag the SEC crown. K. Yes they are MUCH better than the Hogs but motivation is always hard to gauge after getting your guts ripped out the previous week. We didn’t see any quit in Arkansas last week and MEGALOCKS SEC QB INSIDERS tell us that Cole Kelley will get the nod at QB once again this Saturday. He did not look out of place and is an absolute BEHEMOTH. Of course the issue is getting help from the OL. And the RBs. And WRs. And the defense will have to find a way to get some stops. ROLL TIDE gashed them for 300+, although to be fair, 75 of those yards came before most people had got to their seats. Auburn can blow them out but just think twice before pounding them WILLY NILLY.
Quick Take: Lean to Hogs +13.5.
Missouri -14 Idaho (62)………..MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -10
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 38 Idaho 24
Hmmm. We usually stray away from playing Sun Belt teams as underdogs vs the SEC BUT Idaho is not horrible AND Missouri is not playing like an SEC team right now. Their defense is PURE FILTH (#123 FBS) (#127 3rd down defense) and cannot be trusted even though the stats may be a bit skewed due to a tough schedule. QB Drew Lock is really good (17 TD passes) but just has too much pressure on his shoulders. Idaho impossibly blew a 20-0 lead vs Appalachian St and not sure how they come back after that debacle. For real, they would have been right in the Sun Belt hunt, and now they are not. Their defense is going to be tough to navigate via the pass as they are ranked #49 in the FBS and are an impressive #27 in 3rd down defense.
Quick Take: We lean to the dog but would want more points. We were hoping for 17-20 but obviously that is not going to happen. Missouri has a manageable schedule left and can turn the season around by finishing 5-1 and getting to six wins. This is the last season in the FBS for Idaho and you KNOW they want to get back to a bowl game, or at the very least, get a signature win to make their season. Lean Idaho +14. If you see this line creep below 14 on Friday/Saturday the dog just might be REAL LIVE, YO.
Mississippi St -10.5 Kentucky (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -9
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 32 Kentucky 21.5
Do not adjust your sets. YES – Kentucky is sitting at 5-1 and still have a puncher’s chance in the SEC East if they can win this game. Their only loss was to the Florida Gators (an 889 STAR MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG LATE PHONE RELEASE WINNER) but Florida now has two conference losses. From a statistical standpoint the Wildcats are not impressive but they are experienced and scrappy and have no real weakness. Mississippi St has one of the most dynamic players in the SEC in QB Nick Fitzgerald and is going to be a HOT HANDFUL on Saturday. The Bulldogs only have two losses this season (Georgia, Auburn) and the win over LSU is looking even better right now.
Quick Take: We see some perceived value in the Wildcats based on the point spread but think that this match-up is going to be tough. Fitzgerald in fantastic and the defense is underrated. Kentucky has given up 28,20,34 in the past three games. Passing on this one.
Wisconsin -24 Maryland (54)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -24
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 39 Maryland 15
The schedule is setting up REALLY nicely for CHEESE as they sit at 6-0 with more PATSIES on the docket. They could be setting up nicely for a DATE WITH DESTINY vs Penn St or Ohio St in the Big 10 Championship. First things first. They need to dispose of FEAR THE TURTLE this Saturday who are down to their 3rd string QB in another season of mind-boggling injuries to their signal callers. Maryland started out great with a road win over Texas but this is a much different team without a strong running QB as the supplementary weapons are not as dangerous ESPECIALLY when facing a real strong defense. The Terrapins need to cobble together a few more wins (3) for bowl eligibility but we fear that will be difficult given the MEAT GRINDER schedule ahead of them.
Quick Take: Lean to Wisconsin -24. Maybe even a strong one.
Purdue -8.5 Rutgers (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Purdue -10
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 28 Rutgers 19.5
Congrats Purdue season win total over backers. But we digress.
The Boilers have been playing solid football all season and have a very manageable schedule down the stretch. Dare we say 8 wins could be in the cards ? First they have to dispose of the EMERGING JUGGERNAUT Rutgers Scarlet Knights who beat Illinois (9000 STAR MEGALOCKS CHAT ROOM ALERT MOB STEAM WINNER) last week and upped their record to 2-4. Rutgers is a sneaky under-the-radar team right now but probably will not make noise until next season. They have been outgained by every FBS opponent and are going to have trouble with a balanced Purdue team. There are question marks at QB for both teams as we go to press. The Boilers have allowed only 21,3,28,17,17 in their past five contests.
Quick Take: Line looks about right. Gonna take a pass. Slight leanage to the under 47.5.
Iowa -1.5 Northwestern (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -1
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 24.5 Northwestern 23
This looks like a really competitive game on paper and the point spread certainly agrees with that assessment. Northwestern has been disappointing in 2017 but has a favorable schedule to finish the campaign. They did a nice job crushing Maryland last week, but then again, that was Maryland, yo. QB Clayton Thorson has a poor 8-9 TD to INT ratio and the offensive line has not done a good enough job opening holes for RB Justin Jackson who is an excellent talent. The run defense is solid and that is the match-up the Hawkeyes need to be worried about. RB Akrum Wadley is excellent but is pretty much alone in the backfield after the injury to #2 James Butler. QB Nathan Stanley has been a really nice surprise (15-2 TD to INT ratio) and will need to win this game through the air in our opinion. Iowa comes in rested off a bye. HC K Ferentz is 14-16 in that situation.
Quick Take: Feels like a coin flip. Gonna take a pass and evaluate again later in the week.
Minnesota -13.5 Illinois (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -13
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 30.5 Illinois 17
This is a tough game to bet in our view. Minnesota is LEAKING OIL losing three straight games and only managing 309,328 and 290 yards of offense during that stretch. The defense is a bit banged up and the QB situation is one of the worst in the Big 10. They are more talented overall but are laying 2 TDs which, while probably the correct number, makes us barf a bit in our own mouth thinking about playing on the Gophers. Illinois lost to Rutgers last week and have now dropped four straight after a promising 2-0 start. QB Jeff George fired a 300-yd passing game last week and two weeks ago they ran for over 200 vs Iowa. It feels like there is some talent here but unfortunately Lovie Smith will probably find a way to utilize it in a less-than-optimal fashion. Both teams need this win to help out with bowl eligibility. Especially Illinois.
Quick Take: Gun to the head lean to Illinois at +13.5 would prefer to wait for +14.
Arkansas St -12.5 Louisiana (65.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 39 Louisiana 26.5
We have some Thursday night FUN BELT action as Arkansas St takes on the Ragin’ Cajuns. The Red Wolves are rolling on offense behind their star QB Justice Hansen (19 TDs; 65% completions) and should have no problem scoring a lot of points vs Louisiana. Get ready for the AIR SHOW, yo. We worry about their balance on offense as the running game has been disappointing. That may eventually come back to haunt them but not sure it will be this week. The Cajuns have one of the worst defenses in the FBS (#110) but have only allowed 23 points in the last two games combined (Idaho, Texas St). The X FACTOR ? Back-up QB Andre Nunez has injected some life (and improved play) into the offense.
Quick Take: Lean to the Ragin’ Cajuns for small potatoes at +12.5. These teams REALLY dislike each other and the Arkansas St defense is probably gonna do their part to keep this one close.
SMU -8 Cincinnati (65)………..MEGALOCKS line – SMU -8
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 36.5 Cincinnati 28.5
MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB members are loving this start for the Mustangs with four wins already in the bag. The bad news ? After this week’s game with Cincinnati things start to get a lot tougher (UCF, Navy, Memphis, etc..). Houston got blown away by Tulsa (wut ?) and that means SMU is back in the division hunt. The offense has been fantastic this season (#11 FBS) with a fine QB (Ben Hicks – 15-5 TD to INT ratio), a devastating 3-headed RB (over 1,000 yards, 11 TD) and one of the best WR groups in college football. The Bearcats have been outscored 164-79 in their past four games and appear to be in for a long day defending the Mustangs’ attack. Of course, it is not all roses. The SMU pass defense is ranked #119 in efficiency as they have allowed 15 TDs vs 6 INTs and 66% (!) completions. QB Hayden Moore is more than capable of MATRICULATING in the passing game and keeping the Bearcats in the game. It’s gonna be hard, however, without a running game to stay close to SMU without the benefit of some turnovers. This is also the last stand for Cincinnati in our opinion if they wanna become bowl eligible.
Quick Take: Strong lean to SMU at -8. Probably will not add them to the official plays list based on the quality of their defense. Laying less than a TD would have got us very interested.
TCU -39 Kansas (59)………..MEGALOCKS line – TCU -34
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 49 Kansas 10
It’s the NAME YOUR SCORE game of the week as TCU battles the filth that has become the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday night. TCU looks to be in great shape in the Big 12 as they are the only team without a conference loss AND they have a win over Oklahoma St. However, Iowa St proved that things can change quickly when they SHOCKED the WORLD and beat the Sooners. Kansas seems to be getting worse as the season goes along and that makes us think it is TCU or nothing despite the fact the spread is too high (in our opinion) AND the recent series history. Kansas only lost by a point to TCU last season and almost won as 46 (!) point underdogs two years ago at TCU. The Jayhawks have allowed 110 points the last two weeks.
Quick Take: Gun to the head choice is taking the Kansas team total over 10. Feels like a game you want to avoid.
Miami -16.5 Syracuse (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami -13
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 37.5 Syracuse 21
There is no doubt that the world is a happier and gentler place when YOUR Miami Hurricanes are undefeated. The CARDIAC KIDS are 5-0 and are coming off heroic wins over Florida St and Georgia Tech. They were outplayed by Florida St in our estimation BUT dominated Tech and could have won that game by double digits. Syracuse literally SHOCKED the WORLD by beating Clemson last week, and to be honest, it looked to us liked they held their own regardless of the Tigers’ QB situation. It’s too bad that ESPN and Heisman voters have already decided in mid-October that a RB will win the award just like last year it was L Jackson after half the season. Dungey is one of many QBs that are just as worthy as a RB with 600 yards rushing. He has over 2000 yards passing and also leads the team in rushing (386-8TDs) whilst leading an upset of the WORLD CHAMPION Clemson Tigers. WR S Ishmael is NFL-bound and the defense is better than you might think (#3 FBS 3rd down defense). Miami is very talented and balanced on offense and RB Travis Homer has filled in admirably for Mark Walton.
Quick Take: It is a weird situation in that BOTH teams are setting up for a letdown. We think this is too many points and would side with the Orange especially if it gets to +17. Strong lean Syracuse.
Boise St -14 Wyoming (45)……..MEGALOCKS line – Boise -11
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 29.5 Wyoming 15.5
We know you come to us for ALL of your Wyoming football needs. They came through last week vs Utah St but now have to travel to a JACKED UP Boise St team who just showed San Diego St that they are not ready to roll over and play dead. Our spidey senses were tingling when the talking heads said that Boise football was dung (worse than LSU) so we had to throw them in the MEGALOCKS CHAT ROOM MONEYLINE DOGS LOCK PARLAY. But we digress. The Broncos are master of their domain in terms of getting back to the Mountain West Title game for the first time since 2014 (!). Beating Wyoming is the first step. The offense is not special but the Broncos’ DEFENSE is really really good. That spells trouble for a Wyoming offense that is struggling running the football as well as MATRICULATING in the passing game. They could not crack the 300 yard barrier on offense last week and forecast tough sledding on Saturday night.
Quick Take: We think Boise takes this one but it is too many points. Lean to the under 45 for small potatoes.
Western Kentucky -10 Old Dominion (47)……..MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -10
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 28.5 Old Dominion 18.5
This is a really tough game to call as the unpredictable and underachieving Hilltoppers visit Old Dominion on Friday night. ODU has lost four games in a row by a combined score of 184-54 (!) and get a home game vs a WKU team that has already lost to Illinois (!) on the road and beat UTEP by just one point. The Monarchs’ freshman QB S Williams is completing less than 50% of his passes but we have to believe he will get better every week. WKU has a fine QB in M White but their leading rusher has only 166 yards (!) and their leading receiver just 309. Old Dominion’s defense is ranked #102 in the FBS. Wow this game looks ugly.
Quick Take: Have no idea what to do with this game. Pass. (if the line goes below 10 on Friday before game time we recommend small potatoes on ODU on the MOB STEAM angle)
Virginia Tech -21 North Carolina (51.5)……..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -18
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 36.25 North Carolina 15.25
The Tar Heels are barfing all over themselves with a record of 1-6 BUT they are also dealing with a comical number of injuries AND breaking in a new QB. We should also note that they have been reasonably competitive losing to Virginia, Duke, Cal, and Louisville by respectable margins. All four of those teams will likely be part of the bowl season. We have been high on Virginia Tech all year and they have a fine 5-1 record and are fresh off a bye week. QB Joshua Jackson is developing into a MEGALOCKS favorite (13-4 TD to INT ratio and good mobility) and will prove to be a handful for the Tar Heels’ defense (#113 FBS). The Hokies have allowed posted two shutouts this year.
Quick Take: Strong lean to UNC team total under.
UCF -7 Navy (66)……..MEGALOCKS line – UCF -6
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 36.5 Navy 29.5
The UCF Knights are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE sitting at 5-0 and looking really really good. The schedule has not been especially challenging (Cincy, ECU, FIU, etc..) but you can only play who is on your schedule (#HotTake) and they are rolling and full of confidence. QB McKenzie Milton is playing great football right now (15-2 TD to INT ratio) and is just another QB that is a better choice for the Heisman as opposed a RB with 600 yards or some dude on a two loss team that could not be stopped by Rice or UCLA. But we digress. The UCF offense moves fast and the distribution among all of their weapons is what REALLY makes this attack click. The Navy defense is going to have their hands full but as everyone should know by now – it is REALLY hard to get separation on this team. That rushing attack is hard to get off the field (#1 time of possession FBS) and this is the first meeting between the two teams. Navy barfed all over themselves last week with five turnovers and still only lost to Memphis by 3 points.
Quick Take: This is a yuuuuuge game. The West division of the AAC has 5 (!!) teams tied with one loss. Every game counts and Navy is going to bring a much better effort this week. The hard part is that UCF is an almost impossible fade right now with the way they are playing. Puzzler. Gun to the head selection Navy +7 if you need action on the game. You should be able to get more than 7 on gameday.
Appalachian St -23.5 Coastal Carolina (54.5)……..MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 39 Coastal Carolina 15.5
The Mountaineers are still one of the best teams in the Sun Belt but they have not been playing like the devastating force of the past few seasons. They only beat Texas St by 7 points and slithered out of Idaho last week with a 23-20 win after falling behind 20-cack. Now they get the new kid in town – Coastal Carolina – at home and will try and get the ship straightened out. The Chanticleers should not be underestimated as yuuuuge dogs as they beat UAB (way better than we thought) and lost be single digits to decent Sun Belt squads ULM and Georgia St. Arkansas St was just too much for them last week. We are not sure App St has the ammo to rip them apart like the Red Wolves were able to do.
Quick Take: Lean to Coastal Carolina +23.5 would try and bag +24 for small potatoes.
Oklahoma St -7 Texas (65)……..MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 36 Texas 29
This is a yuuuuuge Big 12 match-up as the Longhorns host the Pokes on Saturday afternoon. Both teams have one conference loss and need to keep it that way given the way the undefeated TCU Horned Frogs are playing. Oklahoma St boasts the #1 offense in college football but are still hanging on by the skin of their teeth in terms on playoff aspirations, and to a lesser extent, a Big 12 Title game appearance. The Cowboys best win ? Texas Tech ? Meanwhile Texas has played a couple of tough games and done pretty well (lost to USC on the road in OT; lost to Sooners by 5). We have the fair line closer to the -4/-5 range. Okie St is great on first downs. Texas is great on 3rd down defense. Let’s gooooooooooooo !
Quick Take: Lean to Texas +7 for small potatoes.
Marshall -2.5 MTSU (49.5)……..MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -3
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 26 Marshall 23.5
MEGALOCKS FUTURES INSIDERS are JACKED UP waiting for the over-5-wins to hit. <grabs popcorn> The Herd are 5-1, but to be honest, have not been destroying elite competition. Miami Ohio, Kent St, Cincy, Charlotte and ODU. They have been really good on defense and balanced on offense BUT their schedule is back-end loaded with the better teams in the conference. The only worry (outside of their competition to date) is that this is the Herd’s 3rd road game in four weeks. MTSU has been very average without star QB Brent Stockstill leading the offense but the Blue Raiders have to start winning if they want to get to a bowl game (3-4 record so far). Fun fact ? MTSU has won their last two home games (FIU, Bowling Green). Can they pull the 3-bagger ?
Quick Take: Gun to the head lean to Marshall. MTSU is a hard team for us to get a read on right now.
Air Force -7 Nevada (67)……..MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -5
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 37 Nevada 30
What do we have here ? Nevada has awoken from their slumber and started to LIGHT UP scoreboards across the nation. They whipped Hawaii two weeks ago and almost SHOCKED the WORLD last week losing 44-42 at Colorado St. QB Ty Gangi and friends should be able to score a lot of points vs the horrifying Air Force defense. The Falcons ? We love those guys but they are still on track (barely) for a bowl game based on a yuuuuuge comeback vs UNLV last week.
Quick Take: Lean to Nevada +7. This should be a fun high-scoring game. Slight leanage to the over 67. Both plays small potatoes.
Arizona -3 California (63)……..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -3
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 33 California 30
WHOA NELLIE ! That was a big upset last week as Cal took Washington St behind the WOODSHED in a 37-3 beatdown. They created a bunch of turnovers and registered a lot of sacks and turned the Cougars’ world upside down. They are sitting at 4-3 and look to be in great shape for bowl eligibility. The offense has not been great but they are well coached and are creating a lot of havoc on defense. Arizona is on SUPAH HOT FIRE under the leadership of JUGGERNAUT QB K Tate (yet another QB who should be considered for the Heisman over a 600 yard RB) and that crazy running game. The Wildcats are one of the best rushing teams in all of college football and lead the PAC 12 by a wide margin. Their D is sketchy but Cal is going to have a hard time slowing this attack down.
Quick Take: Lean Arizona -3 for small potatoes.