Florida St at Boston College – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s Friday night ACC action as Florida St visits Boston College. The Seminoles lost another tough one last week as Louisville hit a late FG for the victory. That leaves them with a record of 2-4 and in danger of not qualifying for bowl eligibility. They have played the toughest schedule in college football without their starting QB, and without a doubt, you need to take that into consideration when assessing their performance. Boston College is on SUPAH HOT FIRE coming off two quality wins (LUA-VUH, Virginia) and need just two more wins to bag bowl eligibility. That seemed like a real longshot just a few weeks ago. What is gonna happen Friday night ? Let’s dig in !
The Details
Florida St -3.5 Boston College (47)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida St -1
Sagarin Ratings – Florida St -8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida St 25.25 Boston College 21.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Florida St 24 Boston College 17
The Match-Up
Florida St offense vs Boston College defense
The Seminoles have been struggling on offense this season and have only scored 11 offensive TDs. Freshman QB James Blackman (in our view) has not been the problem. Yes, he makes mistakes, but he is a true freshman operating behind a suspect offensive line. The Seminoles are DEAD LAST in the ACC in sacks and TFL allowed per game. The running game has been respectable despite the negative plays and mistakes but they have not been able to supplement that with a dangerous passing attack. Boston College is #8 in the FBS and #2 in the ACC in pass efficiency defense (6 TD 12 INT) and we do not see Florida St doing a ton of damage in the passing game. They will hit some shots but we worry about negative plays and mistakes. They will be without RB J Patrick (surgery) who was one of their 1-2 punch but the Noles always have capable bodies at that spot. Boston College has demonstrated a SOFT UNDERBELLY against the run this season but most of that damage came against teams with freakshow running QBs (e.g. Clemson, Notre Dame). Blackman has mobility but is nowhere near as explosive. The game plan has to be commit to the run.
Boston College offense vs Florida St defense
Whoa. The Eagles are starting to click on offense racking up over 500 (!) yards per game in both of their past two wins. The balance has been excellent (364/191 run pass mix vs LUA-VUH; 237/275 vs Virginia) and QB Anthony Brown is coming off his best game of the season. Freshman RB AJ Dillon ripped apart LUA-VUH for over 270 yards (!!) and 4 TDs and Jon Hilliman provides great depth. Not to mention the mobility of Brown. Six players have 100+ receiving yards and eight guys have at least one TD reception. You don’t know what’s coming. You just know it’s coming. Florida St has done a nice job defending the run this year other than vs Lamar Jackson but that is obviously understandable. Boston College will almost certainly not approach 500 yards but they are going to be a handful for the Noles and will test their discipline. Florida St only has 3 (!) INTs this year and 11 sacks. They are just not being disruptive enough. Boston College is #1 in the ACC in sacks allowed per game.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Florida St has won seven straight in the series but we suppose that is not surprising.
Summary
This should be an entertaining game. Forget about the rosters in August. Right now – these teams are really close in overall talent level given the injuries that the Seminoles are dealing with and Boston College is full of confidence and playing well. The Eagles are playing for a bowl bid and we are not sure how Florida St will react after losses to Miami and Louisville. We expect them to give their best shot to Clemson and Florida. Not sure about Boston College.
Florida St has played the #1 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings but Boston College has played #4. They were tied at Clemson after 3Q and beat NIU, LUA-VUH and spanked Virginia.
Official play
Boston College +3.5 -110 (sent out Oct 25 4:50 EST) (play down to +3)