Oklahoma St at West Virginia – College Football Predictions
The Game
Whoa ! This should be fun.
Two Big 12 contenders go head-to-head on Saturday afternoon in what can almost be described as an elimination game. Both Oklahoma St and West Virginia each have a conference loss and would be behind the 8-ball if they added another defeat. Oklahoma St is sitting at 6-1 with their only loss coming to TCU back in September. They are on a 3-game winning streak and the defense is playing well. West Virginia is 5-2 with a loss to – you guessed it – TCU. Both offenses are elite. Lots is at stake. Let’s gooooooooo !
The Details
Oklahoma St -7.5 West Virginia (73.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma St -7
Sagarin Ratings – Oklahoma St -12
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma St 40.5 West Virginia 33
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Oklahoma St 41 West Virginia 35
The Match-Up
Oklahoma St offense vs West Virginia defense
QB Mason Rudolph continues to play excellent football (19-4 TD to INT; 67% completions) and needs to be at his best down the stretch. There are going to be plenty of opportunities to light up the Mountaineer defense with a number of dangerous weapons including star WR James Washington (24 yards per catch ! nearing 1,000 yards already) and WR Marcel Ateman (19.8 yards per catch). J Hill and JD King provide a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield. The offensive line is a patchwork unit right now with a lot of injured players BUT things are looking up in that regard just a bit based on the likelihood of C Brad Lundblade likely getting back into action. West Virginia has allowed 30+ in each of their past four games and almost barfed away a huge lead vs Baylor last week. The Pokes should be able to move the ball with little resistance for most of the game.
West Virginia offense vs Oklahoma St defense
QB Will Grier has been fantastic with 26 TD passes to his credit already this season. WRs David Sills and Gary Jennings have combined for over 1,400 yards and really make this offense unstoppable when it gets into a rhythm. RB Justin Crawford provides balance in the running game. They do face an underrated Oklahoma St defense that has allowed just 384,387 and 283 (!) total yards in the past three weeks against good offenses. The Mountaineers might be a bit more high octane but the Pokes are going to cause some problems. They are #2 in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed and #1 (!) in the Big 12 in pass efficiency defense (4 TD ! 8 INT).
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Oklahoma St has won the last two meetings…….The yuuuuge game with Oklahoma is next weekend but we doubt the Pokes overlook the Mountaineers with so much at stake.
Summary
Our first reaction was “too many points”. Now we are not so sure.
Conclusion
Gun to the head selection Cowboys at -7 or better (pass if cannot get -7). Have to side with the much better defense. Lean to the under 73.5 for small potatoes.