Penn St at Ohio St – College Football Predictions
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE.
The big games are going to start coming down the pipe over the next month and things get HOT and HEAVY Saturday afternoon when Penn St visits Columbus to take on Ohio St. Penn St is a sparkling 7-0 and fresh off a SPANKING of Michigan last week. Ohio St is 6-1 and on a big time ROLL outscoring their last four opponents by a score of 228-49, but to be fair, the opposition was as close to PURE FILTH as you can imagine. Yuuuuuge game, let’s goooooooo !
The Details
Ohio St -6.5 Penn St (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -6
Sagarin Ratings – Ohio St -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 32 Penn St 25.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Penn St 31 Ohio St 28
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Penn St defense
This is going to be fascinating to watch. Ohio St has been steamrolling opponents (54,56,62,56 points in the last four games), but realistically, those were glorified exhibition games when you consider they beat UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska. Then again, we are not just going to POO POO this rapidly improving Ohio St offense, and choose to believe that they are rounding into top shape. We have always been JT Barrett fans. It’s fun and trendy to say that he sucks, but he has a 21-1 TD to INT ratio (!) while averaging almost 9 yards per pass. He has also rushed for 359 yards and 5 TDs and does a great job picking up first downs with his legs. The running game is deep and explosive. J.K. Dobbins has 775 rushing yards (nobody would notice that is more than Barkley because that would take “work” or “research”), and overall, the running game is going to be a beast to defend this week. The passing game is improving, and one way or another, they have accumulated 24 receiving TDs as a team (10 different players).
Of course, it is not all roses. The Penn St defense is EXCELLENT (#1 Big 10 yards per play allowed; #9 overall FBS) and certainly have the MINERALS to slow down the Buckeyes’ attack. They are also #1 in the Big 10 in sacks per game and TFL per game. Ohio St is a tough team to pin down in the backfield (you do NOT want to get too aggressive and give up big plays) but there is no doubt the Buckeyes are facing a stiff challenge. 3rd downs are going to be even more yuuuuuge than normal. Ohio St is converting 49% on 3rd downs (#10 FBS) and need to play keep-away.
Penn St offense vs Ohio St defense
The Nittany Lions bring one of the best (the best ?) QB/RB combos to town in Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley. McSorley is somehow still a bit underrated (?) and it’s hard to imagine this offense functioning without his ability to run and pass AND be CLUTCH. He has 14 TDs passing (just 5 INT) and 7 TDs on the ground. Barkley is a dual threat beast out of the backfield (757/448 rushing/receiving) and is going to be a handful for Ohio St. It does concern us that the TM/SB combo accounts for essentially all of their rushing yards. The key match-up is going to be the ability of Penn St to MATRICULATE in the passing game. Ohio St is ranked just #7 in the Big 10 in pass defense efficiency and will be in for a stern test when you consider worrying about Barkley, the solid WR group AND Barkley out of the backfield. Not to mention their excellent TE M Gesicki. Penn St will also be in for a tough challenge because the Ohio DL just might be the best they face all season AND the weather is looking pretty sketchy as we go to press (cold/windy).
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Penn St is on SUPAH HOT FIRE vs Vegas and are on a 15-4-2 run in their past 21 games…….Urban Meyer is beyond devastating off a bye with the last loss coming back in 2001 when he was at Bowling Green.
Summary
This should be fun.
It is really difficult to make a case for Ohio St based on “Power ratings”. These teams are both excellent in our estimation and close in talent. We believe that Ohio St has a big situational edge (off a bye; Penn St off big win over Michigan) and is rounding into form on offense. Nobody likes JT Barrett. Not many people like a team that played so poorly in EARLY SEPTEMBER vs Oklahoma. Thankfully, we are not going into a time machine and playing this game on September 9th.
Coach Meyer is great off a bye and the weather is not going to help the Penn St passing game.
Official play
Ohio St -6.5 -110 (sent 8:52 pm EST Oct 26) (play up to -7)