TCU at Iowa St – College Football Predictions
The Game
The Horned Frogs continue towards a DATE WITH DESTINY and a Big 12 Title game berth when they take their 7-0 record to Ames and tackle the 5-2 JUGGERNAUT Iowa St Cyclones. TCU is in great shape right now given their wins over Oklahoma St and WVU but the Big 12 standings can change in a hurry. It is a very competitive league, of course, excluding the Jayhawks. Iowa St has rattled off three conference wins in a row and are in a 2nd place logjam tie in the Big 12 standings. There are some tough games ahead but they DID beat the Sooners on the road. Let’s gooo !
The Details
TCU -6.5 Iowa St (49.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – TCU -8
Sagarin Ratings – TCU -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: TCU 28 Iowa St 21.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: TCU 27 Iowa St 20
The Match-Up
TCU offense vs Iowa St defense
The Horned Frogs have been rolling right along this season with a very potent and balanced attack. QB Kenny Hill has a fine 15-3 (!) TD to INT ratio and has completed 70% of his passes. They are ranked #36 in the FBS rushing and #35 passing. They have a great 1-2 punch at RB and ELEVEN different players have caught a TD pass in 2017. The Horned Frogs are also still (#1) in 3rd down conversion offense (56 % !) and face an Iowa St defense ranked #105 in the FBS in 3rd down defense. Wanna get a sack ? TCU is #1 in the Big 12 in sacks allowed per game. The Iowa St defense is one of the most improved stop units in all of college football but face a stiff challenge this Saturday.
Iowa St offense vs TCU defense
One of best stories in college football this season (other than the looming Heisman trophy debacle) is Iowa St QB Kyle Kempf who came out of nowhere to save the Cyclones’ season AND get them in the thick of the Big 12 race. Like, for real, like, as the cool kids say. Kempf has thrown for 7 TDs and been picked off just once whilst leading Iowa St to wins over the Sooners (!), Kansas and Texas Tech. RB David Mongomery runs with the WHITE HOT INTENSITY OF A THOUSAND SUNS and they have dangerous weapons at WR including Allen Lazard. The offensive line has been decent, but overall, they need to get more pop out of the run game which is ranked #109 in the FBS. TCU is ranked #1 in the Big 12 in sacks per game and yards per play allowed. They are also the #2 pass efficiency D in the conference (48% completions; 8 TD 7 INT). TCU is very difficult to run on (#3 FBS) so it seems to us like the Cyclones are going to have a lot of trouble moving the ball.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
TCU has won the last three meetings by scores of 41-20, 45-21 and 55-3……The weather forecast is cold and windy (but dry) as we go to press…..That should help the defenses, and theoretically, limit the damage that Iowa St can do in the passing game…..Both teams are great in the turnover margin department (two teams combined +12).
Summary
TCU is the better team and should be nice and fresh after easy wins over the Kansas schools. Any chance of overlooking the Cyclones was (hopefully) avoided given their recent hot streak. And they are just good. The tape will prove it.
It seems like a really tough match-up for Iowa St. QB KK has faced three horrible defenses and now has to face the best stop unit in the Big 12 in difficult weather conditions with a bit of pressure on his shoulders. HC Gary Patterson is an amazing 62-28 (!) in road games in his career and has led his team into numerous tough road contests. Many players on the TCU team were part of the 2014 “Screw Job” season in which they could have / should have competed for the National Title. They know that one loss can ruin their shot at a playoff appearance. We expect a focused and efficient effort.
Official play
TCU -7 -109 (play up to -8) (sent out 2:40pm EST Oct 26)