UNLV at Fresno St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s Cinderella Story time, yo. Fresno St bagged ONE win last season and are now in the driver’s seat for a trip to the Mountain West Title game. They have won their last two games over good teams (New Mexico, San Diego St) by a combined score of 55-3 and show no sign of slowing down. UNLV has shown a few signs of promise but more signs of PURE FILTH. Last week they barfed up a 28-14 lead at home to Utah St after their starting QB was injured and lost 52-28. Can UNLV hang on the road ? Let’s dig in.
The Details
Fresno St -21 UNLV (57)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Fresno St -24
Sagarin Ratings – Fresno St -20.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Fresno St 39 UNLV 18
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Fresno St 41 UNLV 21
The Match-Up
Fresno St offense vs UNLV defense
People often ask us why we are not whiny little babies like so many Twitter and message board warriors when they lose a pick they “should have won”. When you follow some “pros” on Twitter you need a box of tissues every 30 minutes to cry over their bad beats. Well, WE know that the good breaks and bad breaks even out. Last year OREGON ST QB Marcus McMaryion guided the Beavers to a late TD and miracle cover vs Utah in a 800 STAR MEGALOCKS LATE PHONE RELEASE WINNER.
In 2017, Marcus McMaryion is back in action, but this time with the JUGGERNAUT Fresno St Bulldogs. Fresno St has demonstrated an excellent balance between the run and pass, and to top it off, QB McMaryion has completed 65% of his passes with an excellent 7-1 TD to INT ratio. The running game features three players with 270+ yards rushing and the ball is distributed well when they decide to MATRICULATE in the passing game. They are #1 in the MW in TFL allowed (!) and UNLV has trouble getting PENETRATION. The Rebels also feature one of the worst defenses in the FBS and should be easy pickings for the Bulldogs.
UNLV offense vs Fresno St defense
Oh boy. UNLV was blessed with an excellent dual threat QB in Armani Rogers but he is listed as doubtful due to concussion protocol. We cannot imagine the Rebels subjecting him to the pain and suffering associated with playing a road game at Fresno St. Kurt Palandech gets the nod (or QB turned LB turned QB again Johnny Stanton) this week and things do not look pretty. The Rebels boast an excellent RB in Lexington Thomas but will struggle without the mobility of their starting QB. WR Devonte Boyd is also a legit #1 but we worry about his ability to do much of anything is this game. Fresno St is #3 in the MW in yards per play allowed and #17 in the FBS in total defense. Want more ? They have not allowed a TD in 9 quarters. Prognosis ? Pain.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
UNLV blasted the Bulldogs 45-20 last year and enjoyed doing it. Uh oh.
Summary
Fresno is absolutely cooking right now. Also – MODEL GUY and MATH GUY may want to adjust for the YTD Fresno St stats which already look really good. The Bulldogs played at ROLL TIDE and at Washington. In their other five games they won by a combined score of 199-34.
Official play
Fresno St -21 -106. (sent 6:22 pm EST Oct 26) (play up to -23)