ARMY vs NAVY – PREVIEW AND PREDICTION
NAVY 6 ARMY (47)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Navy -7 Sagarin ratings – Navy -16
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Navy 26.5 Army 20.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Navy 38 Army 24
The Game
It is one of our favorite games of the year ! The only bad news is that is signals the end of the college football regular season. Both teams have bowl bids secured at this point. Navy is headed off to the Armed Forces to face La Tech whilst the Black Knights get North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. It is also important to note that Air Force has already won the Commander In Chief trophy due to their wins over both Army and Navy this season.
The Match-Up
Navy offense vs Army defense
Navy had to start the season replacing one of their all-time greats in QB Keenan Reynolds. New starting QB Tago Smith was injured early in the season and Will Worth filled in admirably rushing for a crazy 25 TDs (!!) and leading the Midshipmen to the AAC Title Game. Sadly, Worth was injured in that game and is now out for the season. Navy must turn to an inexperienced but talented Zach Abey to lead them in one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports.
We feel that Abey can definitely do a good enough job to win this game. He is going to miss SB T Gulley who was averaging 9.9 (!) yards per carry before his injury took him down for the season in last week’s game vs Temple. Army knows what is coming. Can they stop it ? Last season the Black Knights only gave up 312 yards of offense to Navy and should be able to have similar success on Saturday. Army is ranked #5 (wut ??) in total defense in the FBS, and while they have played a soft schedule overall, there is no doubt that Navy is going to have to grind for everything that they get in this contest. WR Jamir Tillman could be the difference in this game when Navy decides to MATRICULATE in the passing game.
Army offense vs Navy defense
QB Ahmad Bradshaw and RB Andy Davidson will lead the Army offense on Saturday and should be full of confidence. They boast the 3rd best rushing attack in the FBS (Navy #2) and are going up a Navy defense that has allowed 27+ points in every game since September 17 (Tulane). We think that Army has a legit shot to outgain Navy in this one and just have to avoid making key mistakes especially in the red zone. WR Edgar Poe gives Army a legit threat in the passing game. As crazy as it sounds, it may be the PASSING games that decide this game.
MEGA MORSELS
Navy has won a seemingly impossible 14 straight games in this series…..The under is on a 10-1 L11 run….Normally we would worry about a letdown after losing a conference championship game (Navy) but motivational angles can be thrown out the window in this one….Army has not played a game since November 19th and that was against FCS foe Morgan St….Navy has played two games since then….We are not sure if that makes Army rusty or if the extra rest gives them the edge ??
Summary
This feels like a good old fashioned SNOT BUBBLER. We do not see an edge for either team. If anything, the Army defense appears to be a stronger stop unit than what Navy has to offer, but it is unclear if that will make a difference when two option teams hook up.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Under any number 46 or better (line is currently 47).