POINSETTIA BOWL PREVIEW – BYU vs WYOMING
BYU 9 WYOMING (56)
MEGALOCKS LINE – BYU -8.5 Sagarin ratings – BYU -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: BYU 33.5 Wyoming 24.5
The Game
It took us several years, but thanks to this game, we FINALLY learned how to spell “Poinsettia”.
One of the reasons we have enjoyed this season so much is that there have been more than a few teams that have risen from the ashes and had really good campaigns. HC Craig Bohl has done a great job with the Cowboys and almost had them winning the Mountain West championship after winning just SIX games in the previous two seasons combined. The Cowboys went head-to-head with a good Aztecs team twice late in the season and looked to be every bit the equal in those two contests. Ture, both of those games were at home, but the Cowboys get full marks for a year in which at one point, they rattled off 5 straight victories.
The Cougars had another decent season bagging 8 wins. First year HC Kalani Sitake has to be pleased with a record that could have been ever better if a some close games went their way.
The Match-Up
BYU offense vs Wyoming defense
This should be interesting. One the one hand, we are disappointed to not get a final chance to see QB Taysom Hill. Injuries got the best of him. The good news is that Tanner Mangum is a proven gunslinger (3,300+ yards last season) and will get to face a weak defense in this game. But make no mistake, this offense has been all about the running game in 2016 and we expect that to continue in this match-up. RB Jamal Williams will be playing in his final game at BYU and we expect good output vs the #88 rushing defense. Mangum does not have the same mobility as T Hill did at QB but the Cowboys must respect the Cougars’ ability to at least ATTEMPT to MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game. One thing that does concern us is our report from MEGALOCKS BYU INSIDERS who note that BYU did not have a single 100-yard receiving game in 2016.
Wyoming did not play much defense this season, and thankfully, they did not have to be that stellar because the offense was fantastic. The Cowboys finished up ranked #112 in total defense and were equally poor against the run and the pass.
Wyoming offense vs BYU defense
We were not sure if RB Brian Hill could surpass last season’s excellent 1,600-yard campaign. Well, all he did was rush for 1,761 yards and 21 TDs. The Cowboys were really effective on offense because they could pound the football and also dice you up in the passing game. QB Josh Allen made some mistakes (13 INT) but threw for almost 3,000 yards and 26 TDs. WR Tanner Gentry has a chance to do some good things vs a suspect BYU pass defense.
The Cougars gave up just 3,7,9, and 10 (!) points in their final four games but will be facing a really good offense in this game. BYU finished up #8 in the FBS vs the run but were ranked in the bottom half of the FBS in pass efficiency defense. The better offenses on their docket managed to put up some pretty good numbers (Toledo 53, Boise 28, W Virginia 35) and we feel that Wyoming has the potential to keep up in this game if they hit some big plays and do not settle for FG attempts.
Motivation / Intangibles
BYU – HC Kalani Sitake appears to be a good motivator and should have the players’ attention for this game. The Cougars have not won a bowl game since the 2012 POINSETTIA BOWL (!) so should (in theory) be a little more interested than normal playing Wyoming. GRADE – Average.
Wyoming – The Cowboys’ last bowl appearance was in 2011 and their last bowl win came back in 2009. They have not played in something other than the Las Vegas or New Mexico bowls in the post-season this CENTURY (dropping another knowledge BOMB) and will be plenty geeked up to get a win over a “name” program and former conference rival. GRADE – Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Amaze your STALKER EX-GIRLFRIEND with this gem….BYU lost four games this season but they were only by a combined 8 (!!) points (1,1,3,3)……BYU only allowed ONE run of 30+ yards all season and that came in week one vs Arizona.
Summary
The motivational aspects favor the Cowboys but we cannot back a team with the significantly worse defense. If BYU can slow down RB B Hill, which is not out of the question, we think the Cowboys will be forced to pass more than what is set out in their game plan. BYU should be able to control the game with their running attack.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: BYU TT over 33.5 (up to 35)
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: Yes.