MIAMI BEACH BOWL PREVIEW – CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs TULSA
TULSA 11.5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (68.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tulsa -14 Sagarin ratings – Tulsa -20
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tulsa 40 Central Michigan 28.5
The Game
Miami Beach, baby ! #HOTTIES.
This game has been fantastic the past two seasons. Two years ago, we had a 24875298347 STAR winner with a Memphis miracle win. Last year, we loved S Florida but had a 1346182736418 STAR loser on the Bulls in another fun game to watch. MEGALOCKS FAITHFUL need to know. What will happen this year ?
Tulsa had a really nice season finishing up with 9 wins. Their losses ? At Ohio St. And close losses to Houston and Navy. We REALLY like the job HC P Montgomery is doing here and he just signed an extension until 2022. Yes, he may leave early, but things are looking really good in the near future if you are a Golden Hurricane football fan.
The Chips are best remembered for the ridiculous win at Oklahoma St in early September when they simultaneously took advantage of cheating refs and a Hail Mary / lateral combo. The finished with a pretty disappointing 6-6 mark (3-5 MAC) but were decimated by injuries. Everything can be forgotten with a win over a really good Tulsa team. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
Tulsa offense vs C Michigan defense
“The horror…..the horror….” – Kurtz (Apocalypse Now)
Tulsa was an absolute machine on offense this season. They had the #6 offense in the FBS and scored 31+ in EVERY (!) game this season other than in the visit to Ohio St. What we really love about this offense is the balance (more on that later). The running game does SERIOUS damage and features TWO 1,000-yard running backs in D Brewer and J Flanders. QB D Evans has been known to have BRAIN FARTS once in a while but he still threw for over 3,000 yards. Tulsa ripped apart opposing defenses for 522 yards and 41 points per game.
Central Michigan had a hard time stopping the good offenses in the MAC and goodness only knows how ugly this could get in Miami. The Chips allowed the 2nd most TD passes in the MAC (28) and only picked off 13 passes. They were torched for over 350 yards in the air in the season finale vs E Michigan. They gave up 37 to Miami Ohio. We would feel better if they had a decent pass rush but they were ranked 10th in the MAC in sacks per game. Prognosis: Pain.
C Michigan offense vs Tulsa defense
Our primary concern for the Chips is their lack of ability to run the football. #1 rusher Devon Spalding is banged up and may not go, but even if he plays, the Chips were still ranked #12 (!) in the MAC in rushing offense and have a really good passing QB who is not threat to run. We REALLY respect QB Cooper Rush but the OL has done a poor job in pass protection and allowed 34 sacks (#109 FBS). There is no doubt that the Chips will get their yards through the air, but over the course of this game, there are going to be some 3-and-outs and that spells trouble.
NARRATIVE STREET guy will tell you that Tulsa plays no defense. Well, they improved by well over a TD allowed per game, and consider this factoid. They gave up 258 yards per game in conference play. The best team of all time (Houston: Source – ESPN) gave up 235 yards in AAC games whilst Navy and USF gave up 260 per contest in conference play. The point ? They are not very good, but they are not as horrid as you may think. Overall the Golden Hurricane finished 6th in the AAC in yards per play allowed (5.51).
Motivation / Intangibles
Tulsa – We like the fact the HC Philip Montgomery has signed an extension. We are encouraged to see a LOT of seniors looking to go out with a bang. The downside is playing a team from the MAC in a city like Miami. GRADE – Average.
C Michigan – Sure. The underdog card can play well. This just feels like a dull spot for the Chips. QB Cooper Rush will be motivated but he is also earmarked for at least one postseason all-star game (East-West Shrine game). Tulsa is not a “name” school to get geeked up to play. GRADE – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
The over is 35-17 in the last 52 Tulsa games…..The Chips were 3-5 in the MAC….Tulsa was 6-2 in the AAC….we will let MEGALOCKS HOME GAMERS do the math…..Chips QB Cooper Rush needs just 262 yards to become the school’s all-time leading passer surpassing the awesome (seriously) Dan LeFevour…..We think he will get there in this game….Tulsa PK R Jones was just 2/6 from 40+ yards this year but Chips PK was equally crappy from anywhere as he finished up just 7/16 overall on FG attempts……Amaze your TRAMP MISTRESS with this gem….Tulsa is looking to become the FIRST team in HISTORY to have a 3,000 yard passer, TWO 1,000-yard rushers and TWO 1,000 yard receivers….All they need is for WR Josh Atkinson to get 73 yards receiving in this game….Yes we think it is a good prop bet that he will hit the OVER………MEGALOCKS MAC EXTRA DEEP INSIDERS will have you know that the 2016 version of the Chips have had to deal with 16 season ending surgeries.
Summary
Yes. We know that there is a stat somewhere that will tell you double-digit underdogs are 989-3 ATS in bowl games. Fine. We RARELY back favorites -10 or higher but this feels like a blowout. The Chips will get some points but Tulsa is the team on a mission looking to build momentum for next year with a 10-win campaign. NARRATIVE STREET GUY will also tell you that the Chips came back from a huge deficit in the Bahamas Bowl (2014) but we watched every snap of that game (2475234975283479 STAR WKU TT OVER WINNER). We remember. This Chips team is nowhere close to the same quality and in particular on the offensive line.
Conclusion
Official play: Tulsa -11.5 -106. Would play up to -13.5. (It is still -11 at Pinny, BetUS, BOL….we took the -11….will use -11.5 for officially official purposes).
Best play on the game: See above. (Tulsa TT over would also be good).
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO.